臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

背景：跨國跨時研究顯示所得與道路交通事故死亡率的關係在低所得水平時是正相關，隨著所得水平提升正相關減弱，達到某一所得臨界值後，所得與死亡率開始呈現負相關。可惜並沒有研究以一國跨縣市跨時研究來探討兩者之關係並探討政策介入之影響。
目的：首先想瞭解以台灣為分析單位及以縣市別為分析單位分析所得與道路交通事故死亡率的關係在不同經濟發展階段是否不同？其次想瞭解造成這種不同階段關係改變的主要原因為何？第三想瞭解高低發展地區上述關係改變形態是否不同？第四想瞭解1997年強制戴安全帽立法政策介入對所得與死亡率關係的改變為何？
方法：台灣為分析單位的所得指標是人均國內生產毛額，縣市別為分析單位的所得指標是家庭可支配所得，資料來源皆是主計處。道路交通事故死亡率資料由衛生署統計室獲得。所得與死亡率之關係分別以所得分組、朴瓦松廣義程式估計線性迴歸模型與廣義相加非線性迴歸模型進行估計。不同經濟發展階段主要以年代、所得水平與地區發展程度來區分。
結果：以台灣為單位的分析結果顯示所得與道路交通事故死亡率之關係的確在經濟發展初期呈現顯著正相關，隨著所得增加正相關減弱，當人均國內生產毛額超過6,223美元（1988年）後，兩者關係變成負相關，但是大於13,413美元（1997年）後負相關消失。以台灣縣市別為單位的分析結果也顯示類似的關係改變型態，當家庭可支配所得約47萬元（1989年）時開始出現轉折，但是在2001-2004年負相關強度也減弱。在1988年以前，家庭可支配所得是縣市別道路交通事故死亡率的最主要解釋變項，1988年之後是教育程度。影響所得與死亡率關係改變主要是因為所得與暴露率（機動化程度）關係改變造成。在低發展地區出現死亡率轉折的所得臨界值（43萬元）比高發展地區（47萬元）低，當高發展地區持續出現負相關的年代，低發展地區還是持續正相關。1997年政策介入對高低發展地區的死亡率都有顯著下降影響，但是低發展地區所得與死亡率的相關性在1997年以後開始不顯著。
結論：台灣做為一個經濟發展後進者，再加上全球化的影響，台灣與歐美先進國家（可能是三四十年前）達到相同所得水平時，所能消費的車輛安全性、道路環境與相關交通安全措施都比較佳。因此道路交通事故死亡率不會被所得命定，台灣可以在較低所得水平就出現死亡率下降趨勢。此外，台灣幅員小，道路安全行為與觀念在縣市間的傳散較快，道路建設與交通安全相關政策也都由中央推動。使得縣市別道路交通事故死亡率更不會被所得命定，尤其低發展縣市可以在較低所得水平就出現死亡率下降趨勢。

BACKGROUND: Cross-national time series studies reveal that the relationships between income and motor vehicle accident (MVA) mortality is non-linear: during initial stages of economic developments, a positive correlation is found. The correlation decreases when the income increases. When the income raises to a certain level, the association become negative. Nevertheless, no study examined the relationship using cross-county level time series data and assess the effects of road safety interventions on the relationships.
OBJECTIVES: First, to determine the pattern of changes in relationships between income and MVA mortality in Taiwan at both country and county level. Second, to identify the main determinats resulting the changes in the relationships. Third, to reveal if the pattern of changes in the relationships differed between high and low developed areas. Fourth, evaluate the impacts of mandatory helmet law launched in 1997 on the relationships between income and MVA mortality.
METHODS: Per capita gross domestic products (GDP) and disposable household income was used as the proxy of country and county income respectively. Both data were from Bureau of Budge and Accounting, Taiwan. MVA mortality data were extracted from Department of Health, Taiwan. Relationships between income and MVA mortality were assess by income group differences, coefficiency derived from Poisson generalized equation estimation (GEE) linear model and predicted mortality based on generalized added non-linear model (GAM). Stages of economic development were stratified by years, income level and areal development level.
RESULTS: The association between income and MVA mortality at initial development stage was positive at country level. The level of association decreased when income level increased. The association became negative when the per capita GDP over 6,223 US$ (1988). The negative association, however, disappeared when per capita GDP over 13,413 US$ (1997). The pattern of changes in relationships between income and MVA mortality at county level was similar. The turningpoint of mortality changes occurred when household disposable income at 470 thousands NT$ (1989). Similarly, the negative relationship decreased in 2001-2004. Before 1988, household disposable income was the most significant determinant explaining the MVA mortality at county level. Level of education became the most important determinat after 1988. Changes in relationships between income and MVA mortality was mainly due to changes in relationships between income and exposure (motorization, vehicles per 1000 population). The income level of which the MVA mortality decline was lower in low developed areas (430 thousands NT$) than in high developed areas (470 thousands NT$). When the years of which the relationships were negative in high developed areas, the relationships were still positive in low developed areas. The MVA mortality significantly decreased after the launch of mandatory helmet law in 1997 in both high and low developed areas. Nevertheless, the relationship between income and MVA mortality became non-significant in low developed areas after 1997.
CONCLUSIONS: Taiwan as a late comer of economic development in the age of globalization, when income level was the same between Taiwan and those highly developed countries (maybe thirty or forty years ago), the motor vehicle, road infrastructure and measures of transportation consumed by people in Taiwan would be safer than those in highly developed countries. Therefore, the MVA mortality was not fatally determined by income, the increasing MVA mortality trends could decrease at lower income level than expected. One of the features in Taiwan was that the road safety adaptation behavior and concepts could be diffused easily compared with many large scale countries. In addition, the most of construction of road infrastructure and road safety measures were centralized. The MVA mortality in county level was not fatally determined by income either. The increasing MVA mortality trends could decrease at lower income level than expected in low developed areas.

內容目錄

論文口試委員審定書 i
誌謝 ii
中文摘要 v
英文摘要 vii
內容目錄 x
圖目錄 xii
表目錄 xv
第一章 前言 1
第二章 文獻回顧 6
2.1 探討所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之實證研究 6
2.1.1 跨國研究 6
2.1.2 一國跨時趨勢研究 9
2.1.3 一國跨地區研究 12
2.2 解釋所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之理論 14
2.3 解釋所得與死亡率關係之理論 16
第三章 研究問題與假說 26
第四章 材料與方法 30
4.1 資料來源 30
4.2 分析方法 33
4.3 研究限制 35
第五章 結果 38
5.1 以台灣為單位之分析結果 38
5.2 以縣市為單位之分析結果 39
5.2.1 相關變項之描述性統計 39
5.2.2 所得分組之死亡率差異 41
5.2.3 所得與死亡率之單變項線性迴歸關係 42
5.2.4 所得與死亡率之多變項線性迴歸關係 43
5.2.5 所得以外相關變項之迴歸分析結果 43
5.2.6 所得與暴露率與致死率之線性迴歸關係 45
5.2.7 所得與死亡率之非線性迴歸關係 46
第六章 討論 49
6.1 研究問題的回答與假說的驗證 49
6.2 回到台灣的經濟發展脈絡看所得與死亡率之關係 51
6.3 台灣經驗的特殊性與衛生政策意涵 54
第七章 結論 57
參考文獻 58
圖目錄

圖一：Preston（1975）跨國研究比較不同年代所得與死亡率的關係 73
圖二：台灣與不同國家經濟成長之比較 74
圖三：Mosk & Johansson（1986）跨地區研究顯示所得與死亡率的關係 75
圖四：台灣與不同國家所得與機動化程度關係之比較 76
圖五：不同國家道路交通事故死亡率趨勢之比較 77
圖六：台灣道路交通事故死亡率趨勢 78
圖七：van Beeck et al (2000)跨國跨時研究顯示所得與交通事故死亡率之關係 79
圖八：Kopits & Cropper (2005)跨國跨時研究顯示所得與道路交通事故死亡率之關係 80
圖九：van Beeck et al(2000)跨時研究顯示西班牙與希臘所得與道路交通事故死亡率之關係 81
圖十：van Beeck et al(2000)跨時研究顯示美國與日本所得與道路交通事故死亡率之關係 82
圖十一：Page（2001）跨國研究顯示不同國家預期與實際道路交通事故死亡率之差異 83
圖十二：衛生署死因統計與警政署道路交通事故傷害死亡數與受傷數之比較 84
圖十三：台灣人均國內生產毛額與交通事故傷害死亡率關係之折線圖 85
圖十四：台灣人均國內生產毛額與交通事故傷害死亡率關係之散佈圖 86
圖十五：台灣1989-1996年與1997-2004年人均國內生產毛額與交通事故傷害死亡率關係之散佈圖 87
圖十六：台灣人均國內生產毛額與暴露率（機動化程度）關係之散佈圖 88
圖十七：台灣人均國內生產毛額與致死率（單位車輛死亡數）關係之散佈圖 89
圖十八：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率之箱鬚圖 90
圖十九：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得之箱鬚圖 91
圖二十：台灣不同年代縣市別不同所得分組之交通事故傷害死亡率差異 92
圖二一：台灣縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係散佈圖與不同年代線性迴歸趨勢線 93
圖二二：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率之迴歸係數 94
圖二三：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率之迴歸係數，高低發展地區比較 95
圖二四：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率之迴歸係數，單變項與多變項分析之比較 96
圖二五：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率之迴歸係數，高低發展地區單變項與多變項分析之比較 97
圖二六：台灣縣市別家庭可支配所得與暴露率（機動化程度）關係散佈圖與不同年代線性迴歸趨勢線 98
圖二七：台灣縣市別家庭可支配所得與致死率（單位車輛死亡數）關係散佈圖與不同年代線性迴歸趨勢線 99
圖二八：台灣不同發展地區縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係以GAM統計模型估計迴歸趨勢線 100
圖二九：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係以GAM統計模型估計迴歸趨勢線 101
圖三十：台灣不同發展程度縣市別模型預期與實際轉折所得臨界值與年代之比較 102
圖三一：台灣縣市家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之估計趨勢線，死亡率長期低於台灣地區之縣市 103
圖三二：台灣縣市家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之估計趨勢線，死亡率長期高於台灣地區之縣市 105
圖三三：台灣縣市家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之估計趨勢線，死亡率先高後低於台灣地區之縣市 107
圖三四：台灣縣市家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之估計趨勢線，死亡率長期接近台灣地區之縣市 108
圖三五：台灣縣市別不同家庭可支配所得分組之道路交通事故死亡率箱鬚圖 109
圖三六：台灣不同年代縣市別同一所得分組之道路交通事故死亡率之散佈圖 110
圖三七：台灣三個年代（1993-1996, 1997-2000, 2001-2004）縣市別相同所得之道路交通事故死亡率之差異比較 111
表目錄

表一：跨國研究探討所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之重要內容摘要 112
表二：一國趨勢研究探討所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之重要內容摘要 114
表三：一國跨地區研究探討所得與道路交通傷害死亡率關係之重要內容摘要 115
表四：台灣不同年代衛生署與警政署道路交通事故死亡人數之差異 116
表五：台灣不同年代不同資料來源警政署道路交通事故受傷人數之差異 117
表六：台灣歷年人均國內生產毛額（per capita GDP）、道路交通事故死亡人數（MVA deaths）、機動車輛登記數（Vehicles）、毎十萬人口道路交通事故死亡數、毎千人車輛登記數、毎萬車輛道路交通事故死亡數 118
表七：台灣不同年代所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係之朴瓦松線性迴歸模型檢定 120
表八：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率描述性統計 121
表九：台灣歷年各縣市別道路交通事故死亡率描述性統計 122
表十：台灣不同年縣市別道路交通事故死亡率排序分組 124
表十ㄧ：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得描述性統計 125
表十二：台灣歷年各縣市別家庭可支配所得描述性統計 126
表十三：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得排序 128
表十四：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率相關解釋變項之描述性統計 129
表十五：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得分組之道路交通事故死亡率差異比較 130
表十六：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得分組之道路交通事故死亡率比比較（以最高組為基準），朴瓦松GEE迴歸模型之估計 131
表十七：台灣不同年代縣市別所得與道路交通事故死亡率之單變項迴歸係數 132
表十八：台灣不同所得水平縣市別所得與道路交通事故死亡率之單變項迴歸係數 133
表十九：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率相關影響因素之迴歸係數，多變項與單變項分析之比較 134
表二十：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率相關影響因素之迴歸係數，高發展地區多變項與單變項分析之比較 135
表二ㄧ：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率相關影響因素之迴歸係數，低發展地區多變項與單變項分析之比較 136
表二二：台灣不同年代縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率之迴歸係數，多變項與單變項分析比較 137
表二三：1997年強制戴安全帽立法對縣市別所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係影響之檢定 138
表二四：台灣不同年代縣市別所得與暴露率（機動化程度）之單變項迴歸係數 139
表二五：台灣不同年代縣市別所得與致死率（單位車輛死亡數）之單變項迴歸係數 140
表二六：台灣縣市別家庭可支配所得與道路交通事故死亡率關係曲線之轉折臨界值，以GAM非線性迴歸模型估計 141
表二七：台灣縣市別相同所得水平之年代與道路交通事故死亡率分布 142
表二八：台灣不同年代縣市別道路交通事故死亡率非所得影響因素之估計 143
表二九：台灣歷年道路交通相關大事記 144
表三十：交通部道路交通管理處罰條例與事故傷害防治較有關連之法條 146
表三ㄧ：台灣地區易肇事路段改善計畫各期改善地點數與經費 149

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