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研究生:池秉聰
研究生(外文):Ping Tsung,Chih
論文名稱:經濟學中的創新:代理人基計算建模
論文名稱(外文):Innovation in Economics: Agent-Based Computational Modelling
指導教授:陳樹衡陳樹衡引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shu Heng,Chen
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:經濟研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2007
畢業學年度:95
語文別:中文
論文頁數:125
中文關鍵詞:創新軟體代理人學習機制品質導向生產數量導向生產
外文關鍵詞:innovationsoftware agentlearningquality-orientedquantity-oriented
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創新一直是經濟學長久想要補捉的現象之一, 能夠成功地描述人類的創新, 就能解釋微觀的個體興衰以及巨觀的經濟成長。本研究嘗試建立一個以商品內涵為中心的經濟體系, 包裝在生產者和消費者所組成的商品市場。個體是以軟體代理人 (software agent) 來建模, 其被賦予獨立的學習機制。藉由個體的市場互動模擬, 我們可以更進一步的瞭解創新所帶來經濟成長背後的底層結構。有別於過去的研究對商品的描述。我們使用的方法可以同時兼具商品的質與量, 換言之, 商品的異質與同質大量生產目的是為了滿足各式各樣不同的消費族群。透過消費者對商品的篩選機制, 生產者的優勝劣敗於是產生。什麼樣的特徵具有較佳的存活機率, 什麼樣的組合結構會帶來較高的經濟成長 (即創新所帶來的福利效果), 便成為我們積極想要探索的問題。
Innovation has always been viewed as one of the phenomena economists ardently attempt to explain. Once the process of innovation is successfully identified, it can be applied to describe not only individual progress but also the economic development as a whole. In this study, a commodity market
with producers and consumers is conducted. Each producer has been modeled as a software agent who can independently perform learning functions. The simulation of the market activities may foster our understanding of the base structure of economic development brought by innovation. Unlike past research, our approach takes into account both the quality and quantity of a manufactured good. In
other words, in respond to the need of diverse consumers, a producer may choose to adopt quantity-oriented or quality-oriented strategy. Success is defined in terms of the popularity of goods. This paper aims to discuss the characteristics and commodity combinations of successful producers. By doing this, the benefit of innovation can therefore be unveiled.
摘要
1 緒論……………1
1.1 研究動機……………1
1.2 本文架構…………… 4
2 文獻回顧……………5
2.1 創新文獻…………… 5
2.2 演化計算工具……………9
2.2.1 遺傳程式(GA) ……………10
2.2.2 遺傳規劃(GP) ……………11
2.2.3 演化類神經網路(EANN) ……………12
2.3 小結……………13
3 商品與生產……………15
3.1 元素……………15
3.2 模組化……………16
3.3 適應性函數與偏好……………18
3.4 產能與成本限制…………… 19
3.4.1 生產策略……………21
3.4.2 行銷策略……………21
3.5 小結……………21
4 偏好……………23
4.1 商品空間與偏好…………… 23
4.1.1 商品空間……………23
4.1.2 偏好表現……………24
4.2 效用函數……………26
4.3 模組相配……………29
4.4 需求……………32
4.5 市場過程……………34
4.5.1 隨機搜尋……………35
4.5.2 有目的之搜尋……………36
4.5.3 折衷式的做法……………38
4.6 討論與小結……………38
5 創新……………41
5.1 技術交易……………41
5.2 技術創新與知識經濟……………42
5.3 知識市場……………44
5.4 小結……………46
6 模型介紹……………49
6.1 生產者參數……………49
6.2 遺傳程式參數……………51
6.3 消費者參數……………52
6.4 模擬排程……………54
6.5 報表呈現……………57
6.6 討論與小結……………59
7 生產者策略與創新……………61
7.1 模組化與獨佔市場……………61
7.1.1 基本模型……………62
7.1.2 獨佔環境模擬樣本數……………64
7.1.3 消費者福利與生產者表現……………65
7.2 獨佔與寡佔……………69
7.2.1 模擬樣本數……………70
7.3 研發策略競爭……………72
7.3.1 研究與發展比率競爭……………72
7.3.2 研發訊息交換與變異能力競爭……………75
7.4 定價策略競爭……………77
8 消費者搜尋強度與生產者策略……………81
8.1 模擬樣本數…………… 82
8.2 模組化競爭……………84
8.3 研發策略競爭……………88
8.3.1 研究發展比率競爭……………88
8.3.2 研發訊息交換與變異能力競爭.…………92
8.4 定價策略競爭……………96
9 總體分析……………103
9.1 獨佔環境……………103
9.1.1 總體表現……………103
9.1.2 技術生命週期……………106
9.2 整體比較……………107
9.2.1 生產者表現……………107
9.2.2 消費者福利……………109
10 結論與未來研究方向……………111
10.1 結論……………111
10.2 未來研究方向……………113
參考文獻……………117
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