臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

當不動產抵押貸款擔保品的估值不合理時，超額貸款將引起銀行的金融危機，因此估價師估價的工作十分重要。貸款經紀人擁有預期價格、客戶期望價格及其他估價師事務所估值的資訊，相對比估價師事務所的資訊來的多，因此雙方處於資訊不對稱環境。本文的研究目的如下：1.透過深度訪談法了解貸款經紀人與估價師的互動關係，引導出本研究問卷設計的啟示2.在銀行與不動產估價師事務所高依存度、長期合作關係的兩種情境下，應用賽局樹狀圖分析雙方的選擇方案及最佳報酬組合。3.資訊不對稱的環境中，將納入不動產估價師估價過程裡所考量的因素並作為解釋變數，以分析哪些因素、條件會顯著影響不動產估價師修改估值及調整估值幅度。同時也透過問卷調查方式了解估價師個人屬性、資訊來源的重要性(錨)、修改估值的情境以及估價師事務所與銀行之間的依存關係四個類別，進行次序羅吉特模式實證之。研究結果顯示不動產估價師較年長者、估價年資長者、承辦抵押貸款案件數多者、依個人經驗估價者、估價師事務所與銀行長期合作者較容易採取小幅度的調整估值策略；而資訊來源為採用前輩提供的資訊、公司資料庫資訊與估價師事務所與銀行關係密切者較傾向大幅度的調整估值策略。不僅如此，也發現估價師參考各項資訊的重要性皆比參考貸款經紀人的期待價格較為顯著。綜合上述結果，本研究釐清不動產抵押貸款擔保品估價過程之互動因素，對估價師、貸款經紀人和銀行提出適切的建議。

When valuation of property appraisal for real estate is unreasonable, excess loans will cause the financial crisis. So appraisal is very important. Mortgage brokers have expected price, customers’ expected price and appraising information of other offices, and they have more information than offices. Therefore the both sides are in the information asymmetry. This study will understand the relationship between appraisers and mortgage brokers by questionnaire and derive strategy and return from game theory. The binary and ordinal logit model will be used to analysis the factors which influence the appraiser to revise the estimated value and choose the range of revising valuation. This research will show that senior appraisers, appraisers who have more cases about consumption and finance and experiences of appraisers tend to not change the valuation, but information source from offices and company’s database and offices have close relation with bank tend to change it. Appraisers consult every price is more significant than mortgage brokers’ expected price consulted by appraisers, and banks are business direction don’t influence valuation. The empirical results will analyze the process of property appraisals for real estate mortgage and offer some suggestions to the appraisers, mortgage brokers and the bank.

摘要......................................................I
ABSTRACT.................................................II
誌謝....................................................III
目錄.....................................................IV
圖目錄...................................................VI
表目錄..................................................VII
第一章 緒論.............................................1
第一節 研究背景........................................1
第二節 研究動機與目的..................................8
第三節 名詞釋義.......................................10
第四節 研究流程.......................................12
第二章 文獻回顧與評析..................................15
第一節 不動產估價與客戶影響之研究.....................17
第二節 不動產估價與行為理論之研究.....................18
第三節 不動產估價與資訊不對稱之研究...................19
第四節 不動產估價與定錨效應之研究.....................20
第五節 不動產與賽局理論之研究.........................21
第三章 貸款經紀人與估價師交易行為之探討................28
第一節 質性研究.......................................28
第二節 訪談結果歸納...................................32
第四章 理論模型的建構與實證方法論......................38
第一節 賽局理論(Game Theory)..........................38
第二節 研究方法論.....................................51
第五章 資料與實證分析..................................58
第一節 資料來源說明...................................58
第二節 敘述統計分析...................................62
第三節 修改估值幅度模型分析...........................67
第六章 結論與建議......................................72
第一節 結論...........................................72
第二節 建議與後續研究.................................74
參考文獻.................................................75
附錄一 估價師訪談記錄..................................77
附錄二 問卷............................................90

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