根據研究報告顯示，氣候變遷將多方面影響我們的生活，諸如糧食安全乃至於水資源，水在任何區域的社經發展上均扮演很重要的角色，因此，不管是研究人員對於降雨、逕流的研究，或是一般民眾日常用水的取得，都將受到全球氣候變遷的影響。同屬小型島嶼發展中國家(Small Island Developing States, SIDS) 群體的聖文森及格瑞那丁(SVG) 亦將高度受氣候變遷影響，所以其水資源問題同樣難以迴避。該國依賴河川流量來滿足每日用水所需，據此本研究目標將以該國其中一個主要的流域—Montreal 流域，來探討氣候變遷的潛在影響。由於氣候變遷可能會對流量帶來衝擊， 本研究應用TaiWAP 模式(Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Programme)，其包含了氣候變遷情境、氣象資料合成模式及水文模式GWLF 模式(Generalized Watershed Loading Function)，來評估Montreal 流域的流量衝擊， 以四種大氣環流模式(Global Climate Models, GCMs) CSIRO-MK3、GFDLCM2.0、MPIM-ECHAM5 及UKMO-HadCM3，模擬SRES A1、A1B 及B1 等三種情境變化，模擬的期程分別為短期(2020s, 2010 -2039)、中期(2050s, 2040 – 2069)、長(2080s,2070 -2099)期，除了進行簡單的降尺度，氣象資料合成也模擬未來日解析的溫度及降雨量，這些資料將與其他參數作為GWLF 模式所需的輸入值。結果顯示，年均溫有0.29oC 到3oC 的上升趨勢，降雨變化趨勢為減少48.02%到增加2.74%的範圍。模擬未來流量的結果顯示，在所有的時期流量大多呈現明顯減少的趨勢，年流量變化預期將減少48.02%或增加13.05%，研究結果可以提供給決策者在制訂水資源相關計畫與管理策略時之參考。

According to reports, climate change is expected to affect society in a number of ways ranging from food security to water resources. Water plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of any society thus the impact of climate change on freshwater and more so stream flow is of increasing concern to researchers since most people derive daily water supply from this source. The island of St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) by virtue of belonging to the group of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is projected to be highly affected by climate change, its water resource being no exception. The island depends on
streams to meet its daily water demand. Taking this into consideration this study aims at assessing the potential effects of climate change on stream flow of the Montreal watershed, one of the island’s major watersheds.
To project the probable impact of climate change on stream flow, Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Programme (TaiWAP) was used since it included climate change scenarios,
weather generator and a hydrological model, the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The impact on stream flow in the Montreal Watershed was evaluated using climate scenarios based on the predictions of four Global Climate Models (GCMs): CSIRO-MK3, GFDL-CM2.0, MPIM-ECHAM5, and UKMO-HadCM3 under the SRES A1, A1B and B1.
These scenarios were used to assess climate change for three periods namely; the 2020s (2010 -2039), 2050s (2040 – 2069) and the 2080s (2070 -2099). A simple downscaling was done using the GCMs and a weather generator to generate future daily temperature and
precipitation. This data served as input along with other parameters for the GWLF to simulate stream flow.
The results indicated an increasing trend of 0.29oC to 3oC in annual temperature while the general trend for rainfall, though not as clear-cut as that of temperature showed significant decreases with a change in annual rainfall of -48.02% to 2.74%. The simulated future stream
flow indicated an overall trend of significant decreases in all the periods under review. Annual stream flow is anticipated to decrease as low as 48.02% and increase as much as 13.05%. The projected results should be considered by policy makers to aid in water resource planning and
management.

Chinese Abstract .......................................................................................................................... i
Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ii
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................iii
Table of Content ........................................................................................................................ iv
List of Tables and Figures ........................................................................................................ vii
Acronyms and symbols .............................................................................................................. x
Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1
Chapter 2 Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Climate change.................................................................................................................. 4
2.2 Climate change Impact assessment methodology ............................................................. 5
2.2.1 Modeling the climate .................................................................................................. 6
2.2.2 Downscaling ............................................................................................................... 7
2.2.3 Climate Scenarios ....................................................................................................... 8
2.2.4 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ......................................................... 10
2.2.5 Hydrological models ................................................................................................ 11
2.3 Previous research ............................................................................................................ 12
Chapter 3 Study Area ............................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Climate ............................................................................................................................ 14
3.2 Soil ................................................................................................................................. 15
3.3 Economy ......................................................................................................................... 16
3.4 Water resources ............................................................................................................... 17
3.5 Study Site ........................................................................................................................ 18
3.5.1 Montreal watershed .................................................................................................. 18
3.5.2 Climate ..................................................................................................................... 18
3.5.3 Soil and Vegetation .................................................................................................. 18
Table of Content
v
3.5.4 Land use and economic activites .............................................................................. 20
3.5.5 Problems ................................................................................................................... 20
Chapter 4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 21
4.1 Data collection ................................................................................................................ 22
4.2 Data processing ............................................................................................................... 22
4.3 Model selection: TaiWAP............................................................................................... 23
4.4 Climate scenarios ............................................................................................................ 25
4.5 Model Calibration and validation ................................................................................... 26
4.6 GWLF model inputs ....................................................................................................... 26
4.6.1 Future daily weather data ......................................................................................... 27
4.6.2 Run-off curve numbers............................................................................................. 27
4.6.3 Evaporation Cover Coefficients ............................................................................... 27
4.6.4 Soil water Capacity .................................................................................................. 28
4.6.5 Recession and seepage coefficient ........................................................................... 28
4.6.6 Initial saturated and unsaturated storage .................................................................. 28
Chapter 5 Results and Discussions ........................................................................................... 29
5.1 Model Calibration ........................................................................................................... 29
5.2 Temperature .................................................................................................................... 30
5.2.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 35
5.3 Precipitation .................................................................................................................... 36
5.3.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 40
5.4 Stream flow ..................................................................................................................... 42
5.4.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 46
Chapter 6 Conclusion and Recommendations .......................................................................... 49
6.1 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 49
6.2 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 50
6.3 Problem encountered ...................................................................................................... 50
References ............................................................................................................................... 51
References…………………………………………………………………………………… 56

[1] Ahmad, N. 2003. Baseline study on the soils of St.Vincent and the Grenadines with
emphasis on the maintenance of productivity. Department of Food Production, The University
of the West Indies.
[2] Arnell, N. 1997. Global warming, River Flow and Water Resources. West Sussex, England:
John Wiley and Sons.
[3] Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate Change and
Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat,
Geneva, 210pp.
[4] Billingy, H. K. 2007. Development of an Erosion Risk Map for the Montreal Subwatershed,
St.Vincent, using the RUSLE, Remote Sensing and Geographic Information
Systems. Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies,The University of the
West Indies.
[5] Blake, R., R. Khanbilvardi, L. Errand, D. Rind and C. Rosenweig. 1998. Assessing
climate change impact on the Rio Cobre basin,Jamaica. Hydrology in the Humid Tropic
Environment ,253.
[6] Chen A.A and M. A. Taylor in Association with the Climate Studies Group Mona,
University of the West Indies. 2008. Enabling Activities for the preparationof Jamaica''s
Second National Communication to the UNFCCC: Climate Scenarios for Vulnerability and
Adaptation.
[7] Ciccaglione, J. S. 1998. Characterisation of Soil Erosion Processes and Nutrient Losses
Associated with Previously Forested Area: The Colonarie River Watershed, St. Vincent ,West
Indies. Department of Geography, The University of Calgary.
[8] Contreras.-Lisperguer R. and K. De Cuba, 2008. The potential impact of climate change
on the energy sector in the Caribbean region.
52
[9] Culzac-Wilson, L. 2003. ST.Vincent and the Grenadines. Report to the Regional
Consultation on SIDS Specific Issues.
[10] Dam, J. C. 1999. Impacts of climate change and climate variability on hydrological
regimes. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
[11] Dingman, S. l. 2002. Physical Hydrology (2nd ed.). New Jersey: Prentice- Hall Inc.
[12] Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, 2002. Proceedings of the Regional Policy Dialogue on
Watershed Management in Small Island States. Organization of Eastern Caribbean States
Natural Resources Management Unit.
[13] Frederick, K. D (2002). Water Resources and Climate Change. Cheltenham,
Northampton , UK and MA ,USA. Edward Elgar Publishing Inc.
[14]Gleick, P. et al (2002). The World’s Water. The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources.
Island Press, Washington D.C, Chap 5.
[15] GOSVG, 2001. Integrating management of watersheds and coastal areas in SIDS of the
Caribbean: The Vincentian perspective.
[16] Hackman, R. L. 1998. Soil Erosion and Nutrients Dynamics in Tropical
Mahogany(Swietenia macrophylla) and Acacia(Acacia mangium) Forest Plantation of the
Caratal Watershed,St.Vincent, West Indies. Department of Geography, The University of
Calgary.
[17] Haith D.A, R. Mandel and R. S. Wu, 1992. Generalized Watershed Loading Function
Version 2.0 User''s Manual. Ithaca, NY, USA: Department of Agricultural and Biological
Engineering, Cornell University.
[18] IPCC Data distribution Centre, What is a GCM, 3 April 2009. <http://www.ipccdata.
org/ddc_gcm_guide.html>. (Retrieved 27 April 2009).
53
[19] IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups
I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press.
Cambridge,United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp.
[20] IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I,
II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104
pp.
[21] IPCC-TGICA, 2007. General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate
Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 2. Prepared by T.R. Carter on behalf of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for
Impact and Climate Assessment, 66 pp.
[22] Isaac, C. 2002. The way forward:An Integrated Watershed Management Policy
Framework for Three OECS Islands. Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States - Natural
ResourcesManagementUnit.http://www.oecs.org/esdu/documents/OECS%20St%20Kitts%20
Proceedings.pdf ( Retrieved March 2, 2009)
[23] Island time holidays, 2001.
<http://www.islandtimeholidays.com/Map_of_Caribbean_and_St._Vincent_and_the_Grenadi
nes.htm> (Retrieved 15 April, 2009)
[24] Jackson, I. 2004. Environmental Investigation and Cataloguing, St.Vincent Cross
Country Road Project. Ivor Jackson and Associates.
[25] John, L. 2006. From growing ganja to planting trees: Stimulating legal livelihoods and
watershed management in Saint Vincent through payments from public utilities CANARI
Who Pays for Water Project Document no. 2. 73 pp.
54
[26] Joyette, A. R. 2007. An Assessment of the climate of St.Vincent and the Grenadines:
Reviewing Trends in identiefied variables, Identifying Risks and Providing
Guidance.(Unpublished)
[27] Manoj J, J. Arnold, P. Gassman and R. Gu. 2004. Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment
on Upper Mississippi River Basin Streamflow Using SWAT. Ames, Iowa: Centre for
Agriculture and Rural Development, Iowa State University.
[28] Mc Sweeney C, M. New, G. Lizcano. 2008. UNDP Climate change country profile St
Vincent and the Grenadines. Retrieved March 25, 2009, from UNDP: http://countryprofiles.
geog.ox.ac.uk/UNDP_reports/St_Vincent_and_the_Grenadines/St_Vincent_and_the_
Grenadines.lowres.report.pdf
[29] Mearns L. O., F. Giorgi, P. Whetton, D. Pabon, M. Hulme and M. Lal .2003. Guidelines
for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from. DDC of IPCC TGCIA.
[30] Nakicenovic, N. et al (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report
of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 599 pp.
[31] National Environment Advisory Board and Ministry of Health and the Environment.
2000. Initial National Communication on Climate Change: St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Washington D.C : Organisation of American States.
[32] Paul, N. (1998). Report of the Community Consultation on Management of the
Marriaqua Watershed.
[33] Perlman, H. A. 2007. Water Encyclopedia. Uses of Water.
http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Tw-Z/Uses-of-Water.html. (Retrieved April 9, 2009)
[34] Singh, B., 1997. Climate change in the greater and southern Caribbean. International
Journal of Climatology , 17, 1093-1114.
55
[35] Statistical Office, 2001. St.Vincent and the Grenadines Population and Housing Census
Report. Central Planning Division, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development.
St.Vincent and the Grenadines.
[36] Tung, C., 2001. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of the Tsengwen Creek
Watershed in Taiwan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association , 37 (1), 167-176.
[37] White K.S, Q. Ahmad, O.Anisimov, N. Arnell, S. Browne et al. 2001. Technical
Summary, Climate Change 2001:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. A Report of Working
Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climatechanges-
2001/impact-adaptation-vulnerability/impact-ts-en.pdf. (Retrieved February 25,
2009).
[38] Wikipedia, Hydrological Transport Model, 16 May 2009.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrology_transport_model> (Retrieved 24 May, 2009).
[39] Wikipedia, Troposphere , 10 April 2009. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere>
(Retrieved 27 April, 2009).
[40] Wilby R.L, S.Charles, E. Zorita, B.Timbal, P.Wheton and L. Mearns 2004. Guidelines for
Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods. DDC of IPCC
TGCIA.