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研究生:陳靜怡
論文名稱:影響臺灣家庭旅遊支出因素之長期變化
論文名稱(外文):Long Term Changes of the Factors Influencing Family Travel Expenses in Taiwan
指導教授:范芝萍范芝萍引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:明新科技大學
系所名稱:企業管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:中文
論文頁數:52
中文關鍵詞:家庭旅遊支出分量迴歸
外文關鍵詞:family travel expenditurequantile regression
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:7
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  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
由於觀光產業的蓬勃發展,吸引許多學者投入旅遊支出相關議題的研究,既有文獻大多是以家庭所得、戶長特性與社會經濟變數等作為解釋因子,且只用單年的家庭收支調查資料建立實證模型進行分析,未能看出影響旅遊支出因素的長期變化或消長情形。同時,過去文獻中大多使用最一般小平方法(ordinary least squares, OLS)的估計結果來探討解釋變數對應變數的影響,但其僅能描述被解釋變數的平均行為(averaging behavior),難以掌握住條件分配所可能存在的不對稱行為,而Koenker and Bassett (1978)所提出的分量迴歸(quantile regression, QR) 則可以幫助我們掌握應變數在各分量下的條件分配行為,觀察層面較OLS之估計結果豐富。因此,本文使用1996至2006年之家庭收支調查資料,應用分量迴歸來探討影響臺灣家庭旅遊消費支出因素之長期變化,以提供政府及旅遊業者訂定觀光發展策略或規劃旅遊相關產品時之參考。實證結果顯示,家庭所得、都市化程度、擁有汽車數、戶長年齡、戶長教育程度、幼年人口比例等變數均可作為解釋國人家庭國內與國外旅遊支出的重要因素。同時由歷年的實證結果可知,影響國內和國外旅遊支出的因素並非一成不變,其影響效果可能會隨各年度消費者對國內和國外旅遊的多元化需求而有所不同。此外,各變數的跨分量檢定結果大多不顯著,使得分量迴歸所能提供給研究者更加豐富的觀察層面的優勢則大為削弱。
Due to the thriving developments observed in tourism industry, it is natural to attract many related topic researches in regard to tourism expenditures by scholars. And most of the existing literatures tend to adopt the family incomes, characteristics of the head of the household as well as social and economical variables as the explanatory factors; in addition, only the annual family income and expenditure surveys for one specific year were found to be used in the empirical analysis. Whereas, this approach would not allow observations for the long-term change perspectives or the rises and declines emanating from factors that would affect the family travel expenditures. Meantime, estimated results from OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) are found in the previous literature to explore the variable impacts to corresponding variables. Nonetheless, this only can describe the averaging behaviors of the dependent variables, but not the asymmetric behaviors possibly existed at the tail of the distribution. However, the quantile regression (QR) proposed by Koenker and Bassett (1978) can assist us with the control of the conditional distribution behaviors for each quantile for the dependent variable. Hence, this paper uses the family income and expenditure survey data between 1996 and 2006 and adopts the QR to explore the long-term changes for factors that impact Taiwan family travel expenditures. Empirical results show that household disposable income, urbanization, the number of car ownership, household long age, education level of household, the proportion of young population variables could explain the family as an important domestic and foregin tourism spending factorAnd the findings from this research are expected to provide both the government and tourism industry with references in enacting tourism development strategies or planning for tourism related products.

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究動機與背景 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3研究架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1 國內部分 4
2.2 國外部分 5
第三章 實證方法與模型 8
3.1 分量迴歸的介紹 8
3.2分量迴歸 9
3.3 實證模型 10
第四章 實證分析 11
4.1 實證資料說明 11
4.2 實證結果 18
4.2.1影響總旅遊消費支出之結果 18
4.2.2影響國內旅遊消費支出之結果 20
4.2.3影響國外旅遊消費支出之結果 22
第五章 結論與建議 49
參考文獻 51

1. 江佳慧,家庭休閒消費支出結構之研究,輔仁大學,應用統計研究所碩士論文,2002。
2. 余惠方與徐明洸,”臺灣家庭休閒收支之實證研究-分量迴歸方法之應用”,績效與策略研究,卷6,期1,2009,頁次67-87。
3. 李嘉英,”台北都會區戶外遊憩活動影響因素之研究”,都市與計畫,期9,1983,頁次67-76。
4. 陳永晃,旅遊休閒支出影響因素之研究,佛光大學,經濟系碩士論文,2006。
5. 陳顥文,臺灣地區家庭國內外旅遊消費支出之分析 ,國立臺灣海洋大學,漁業經濟研究所碩士論文,2000。
6. 陸圳旺,影響佳戶單位經常性消費支出的決定因素,世新大學,經濟學系碩士論文,2007。
7. 謝淑芬,”家計單位人口結構對旅遊消費支出影響之研究-分量迴歸模型之應用” ,戶外遊憩研究,卷20,期3,2007,頁次47-72。
8. Cai, L. A., “Analyzing Household Food Expenditure Patterns on Trips and Vacations: A Tobit Model”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, Vol. 22, No. 4, 1998, pp. 338-358.
9. Cai, L. A., “Relationship of Household Characteristics and Lodging Expenditure on Leisure Trips”, Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing, Vol.6, No. 5, 1999, pp. 5-18.
10. Cannon, T. F. and Ford, J., “Relationship of Demographic and Trip Characteristics to Visitor Spending: An Analysis of Sports Visitors Across Time”, Tourism Economics, Vol. 8, No. 3, 2002, pp. 263-271.
11. Dardis, R. D. and Derrick, F. and Lehfeld. A. and Wolfe, K. E., “Cross-Section Studies of Recreational Expenditures in the United Sates”, Journal of Leisure research, Vol. 13, 1981, pp. 184-194.
12. Dardis, R. and Soberon-Ferrer, H. and Patro, D., “Analysis of Leisure Expenditures in the United States”, Journal of Leisure Research, Vol. 26, No. 4, 1994, pp. 309-321.
13. Fish, M. and Waggle, D., “Current Income Versus Total Expenditure Measures in Regression Models of Vacation and Pleasure Travel”, Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1996, pp. 70-74.
14. Gladwell, N., “A Psychographic and Sociodemographic Analysis of State Park Inn Users”, Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 28, No. 4, 1990, pp. 15-20.
15. Koenker, R. and Bassett, G.. W., “Regression Quantiles”, Econometrica, Vol. 46, 1978, pp. 33-50.
16. Lawson, R., “Patterns of Tourist Expenditure and Types of Vacation Across the Family Life Cycle”, Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 29, 1991, pp. 12-18.
17. Mieczkowski, Z., “World Trends in Tourism and Recreation”, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 20, 1993, pp. 218-221.
18. Thrane, C., “Jazz Festival Visitors and Expenditures: Linking Spending Patterns Tomusical to Interest”, Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 40, 2002, pp. 281-286.
19. Swinyard, W. R. and Sim, C. P., “Perception of Children’s Influence on Family Decision Processes”, The Journal of Consumer Marketing, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1987, pp. 25-38.
20. Zalatan, A., “Wives Involvement in Tourism Decision Processes”, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 25, No. 4, 1996, pp. 890-903.

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