跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(3.236.23.193) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/07/24 13:26
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:邱創毅
研究生(外文):Chiu, Chuang Yi
論文名稱:勞動參與的決定因素:以台灣中年已婚男性為例
論文名稱(外文):Determinants of labor force participation: an analysis of older married men in Taiwan
指導教授:陳鎮洲陳鎮洲引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Jennjou
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2010
畢業學年度:98
語文別:英文
論文頁數:73
中文關鍵詞:勞動參與率probitbivariate probitOaxaca分解失業率
外文關鍵詞:abor force participation rateprobitbivariate probitOaxaca decompositionunemployment rate
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:446
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
近年來台灣面臨了人口高齡化的現象,有關中高齡人口的議題成為了學者與社會大眾關注的焦點,其中,自1988以來中高齡已婚男性勞動參與率至2008年為止已下降了約十個百分點,這個現象值得我們去深入了解。本篇論文主要在探討中高齡已婚男性勞動參與的決定因素,研究的資料來源為1988至2008年的人力資源及人力運用調查。其中,我選擇了55至64歲的已婚男性為對象,而總樣本數為51,730,本論文先以probit與bivariate probit模型估計每一個變數對中高齡已婚男性勞動決策的邊際影響效果,再以Oaxaca與DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (DFL)分解模式,試著拆解每一個變數對整體中高齡已婚男性勞動參與率的影響性。
此篇論文著重在兩個主要變數對中高齡已婚男性勞動參與的影響:妻子的勞動參與以及地區性的失業率。近年來越來越多已婚婦女投入職場,我想了解婦女勞動參與率的上升,對整體丈夫勞動參與率的影響;另外地區的失業率是表現出地區勞動市場的重要指標之一,過去的文獻提到失業嚴重的地區可能使當地勞工失業後找不到工作,或使想進入職場的勞工卻步。此篇論文研究結果顯示妻子的勞動參與會顯著的影響先生對勞動市場去留的決定,妻子影響個人的勞動參與機率6~18%左右,而1%地區性失業率的上升,則是對個人的勞動參與機率下降的影響約1.5%左右。在1988年至2008年整體中高齡已婚男性勞動參與率的分解中,勞動參與率下降了3.5%(占整體變化40%),可歸咎於地區失業率的升高。而若妻子的勞動參與沒有提升,仍維持1988年的水準,整體丈夫的勞動參與率將會下降1%(占整體變化10%)左右,本論文認為若政府能維持良好的就業市場環境,將有助於提高中高齡已婚男性人口勞動參與的比率,進一步能有效提高勞動生產力及降低社會負擔。

As the proportion of the old population increases in Taiwan, issues of older individuals’ behavior attract public attention. During 1988 to 2008, labor force participation rate of older married men declined over 10 percent. What can explain this decline? This thesis tries to find out the determinants of older married men’s labor force participation in Taiwan. I use the data from Manpower Survey and Manpower Utilization Survey from 1988 to 2008, conducted by Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). The sample comprise 51,730 observations of married men aged 55-64. Older married men’s labor participation decision is treated as a dependent variable and estimates are made with a probit and a bivariate probit model. Decompositions with methodology of DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996) and Oaxaca (1973) are conducted for explaining the decline in labor participation rate of older married men between 1988 and 2008. The results indicate that the increase in wives’ labor force participation increases husband’s likelihood of participation and prevents aggregate husbands’ participation rate from declining about 1 percentage point (-8 percent of total decline). However, regional unemployment rate negatively affects husband’s likelihood of participation and can explain at least 3.5 percent (40 percent of total decline) of the decline in husband’s participation rate. This thesis suggests the labor force participation rate could be stopped from declining if the government maintains good labor market condition.
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Possible Determinants 2
1.3 Organization 4
Chapter 2 Literature Review 5
2.1 Labor Force Participation 5
2.2 Labor Force Participation and Family Issues 6
2.3 Labor Force Participation and Unemployment 8
2.4 Literature in Taiwan 9
Chapter 3 Theoretical Model 12
Chapter 4 Data and Recent Trends in Participation 16
4.1 Source and Measures of Variables 16
4.2 Trends in Labor Force Participation 20
Chapter 5 Empirical Model 26
5.1 Empirical Labor Force Participation Model 26
5.2 Bivariate Probit 29
5.3 The Oaxaca Decomposition 31
5.4 DiNardo-Fortin-Lemieux Decomposition 32
Chapter 6 Results 38
6.1 Results of Probit and Bivariate Probit 38
6.2 Other Specification 44
6.3 Robustness Check 46
6.4 Decomposition 50
Chapter 7 Conclusion 57
References 59

1. Altonji, Joseph , Todder Elder, and Chirstopher Taber. 2005. An evaluation of instrumental variable strategies for estimating the effects of Catholic schooling. Journal of Human Resources 40 (4):791-892.
2. Anderson, Patricia M., Alan L. Gustman, and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 1999. Trends in male labor force participation and retirement: Some evidence on the role of pensions and social security in the 1970s and 1980s. Journal of Labor Economics 17 (4):757-783.
3. Anderson, Soren, and Richard G. Newell. 2003. Simplified marginal effects in discrete choice models. Economics letters 81 (3):321-326.
4. Bartel, Ann P., and Nachum Sicherman. 1993. Technological change and retirement decisions of older workers. Journal of Labor Economics 11 (1):162-183.
5. Berkovec, James, and Steven Stern. 1991. Job exit behavior of older men. Econometrica 59 (1):189-210.
6. Blau, David M. 1997. Social security and the labor supply of older married couples. Labour Economics 4 (4):373-418.
7. Blau, David M. 1994. Labor force dynamics of older men. Econometrica 62 (1):117-156.
8. Blau, David M. 1998. Labor force dynamics of older married couples. Journal of Labor Economics 16 (3):595-629.
9. Blau, Dacid M., and Donna B. Gilleskie. 2006. Health insurance and retirement of married couples. Journal of Applied Econometrics 21 (7):935-953.
10. Blau, Dacid M., and Ryan Goodstein. 2009. Can social security explain trends in labor force participation of older men in the United States? Journal of Human Resources 45 (2):328-363.
11. Blau, David M., and Regina T. Riphahn. 1999. Labor force transitions of older married couples in Germany. Labour Economics 6 (2):229-252.
12. Blau, Francine D., Marianne A. Ferber, and Anne E. Winkler. 2006. The economics of women, men, and work: Prentice Hall.
13. Blau, Francine D., and Lawrence M. Kahn. 2007. Changes in the labor supply behavior of married women: 1980-2000. Journal of Labor Economics 25 (3).
14. Blundell, Richard, and Thomas MaCurdy. 1999. Labor supply: a review of alternative approaches. Handbooks in Economics 5 (3 part A):1559-1696.
15. Chan, Sewin, and Ann H. Stevens. 2001. Job loss and employment patterns of older workers. Journal of Labor Economics 19 (2).
16. Chang, Chih-Yu. 2007. The decline in middle-age male labor force participation rate in Taiwan-the role of the National Health Insurance, Institute of Economics and Management, National University of Kaohsiung.
17. Chang, H.-J., and C.Y. Cyrus Chu. 1996. Estimating the intertemporal substitution elasticity of male labor supply using pseudo panel data. Taiwan Economic Review 24 (3):313-337.
18. Chen, Yung Yuan. 2003. The studies on labor force status of older persons Department of Public Finance, National Chengchi University. (in Chinese)
19. Chou, Y.J., and Douglas Staiger. 2001. Health insurance and female labor supply in Taiwan. Journal of Health Economics 20 (2):187-211.
20. Chuang, Hwei-Lin, and Eric S. Lin. 2006. The evolution of the empirical study of Taiwan's female labor supply. Taiwan Economic Review 34 (2):119-172. (in Chinese)
21. Coile, C. 2003. Retirement incentives and couples' retirement decisions. NBER Working Papers.
22. Coile, Courtney C., and Jonathan Gruber. 2001. Social security incentives for retirement. Themes in the Economics of Aging:311-341.
23. Coile, Courtney C., and Jonathan Gruber. 2007. Future social security entitlements and the retirement decision. The Review of Economics and Statistics 89 (2):234-246.
24. Coile, Courtney C., and Phillip B. Levine. 2006. Bulls, bears, and retirement behavior. Industrial and Labor Relations Review 59 (3):408-429.
25. Coile, Courtney C., and Phillip B. Levine. 2007. Labor market shocks and retirement: Do government programs matter? Journal of Public Economics 91 (10):1902-1919.
26. Costa, Dora L. 1998. The evolution of retirement: an American economic history, 1880-1990: University of Chicago Press.
27. Council for Economic Planning and Development, Executive Yuan. 2008. Population Projections for Taiwan Areas: 2008-2056.
28. Council for Economic Planning and Development, Executive Yuan. 2009. Taiwan Statistical Data Book.
29. Cullen, Julie B., and Jonathan Gruber. 2000. Does unemployment insurance crowd out spousal labor supply? Journal of Labor Economics 18 (3):546-572.
30. DiCecio, Riccardo, Kristie M. Engemann, Michael T. Owyang, and Christopher H. Wheeler. 2008. Changing trends in the labor force: a survey. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 90 (1):47-62.
31. DiNardo, John, Nicole M. Fortin, and Thomas Lemieux. 1996. Labor market institutions and the distribution of wages, 1973-1992: a semiparametric approach. Econometrica 64 (5):1001-1044.
32. Ehrenberg, Ronald G., and Robert S. Smith. 2009. Modern Labor Economics: Theory and Public Policy: Addison-Wesley.
33. Fortin, Nicole M., and Tammy Schirle. 2006. Gender dimensions of changes in earnings inequality in canada. Dimensions of Inequality in Canada, ed. David A. Green and Jonathan R. Kesselman (UBC Press: Vancouver):307-346.
34. Fung-Mey Huang, Wei-Jen Chen, and Fung-Yea Huang. 2006. The Decline in males’ labor market participation in Taiwan: population, market opportunity, and participation behaviors. Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy 37 (1):1-48.
35. Greene, William H. 2008. Econometric analysis: Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River, NJ.
36. Gruber, Jonathan, and Brigitte C. Madrian. 1995. Health-insurance availability and the retirement decision. The American Economic Review 85 (4):938-948.
37. Gruber, Jonathan, and David A. Wise. 1998. Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL, USA.
38. Gruber, Jonathan, and David A. Wise. 2002. Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-estimation: University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL, USA:.
39. Gustman, Alan L., and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 1984. Partial retirement and the analysis of retirement behavior. Industrial and Labor Relations Review 37 (3):403-415.
40. Gustman, Alan L., and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 1986. A structural retirement model. Econometrica 54 (3):555.
41. Gustman, Alan L., and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 1994. Retirement in a family context: a structural model for husbands and wives. NBER Working Papers.
42. Gustman, Alan L., and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 2000. Retirement in dual-career families: a structural model. Journal of Labor Economics 18 (3):503-545.
43. Gustman, Alan L., and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 2004. Social security, pensions and retirement behavior within the family. Journal of Applied Econometrics 19 (6):723-737.
44. Gustman, Alan L., and Thomas L. Steinmeier. 2005. The social security early entitlement age in a structural model of retirement and wealth. Journal of Public Economics 89 (2-3):441-463.
45. Hallberg, Daniel. 2008. Economic fluctuations and retirement of older employees. IFAU Working Papers.
46. Hsieh, Hsinling. 2008. Do adult children matter? The effects of National Health Insurance on retirement behavior: evidence from Taiwan. Contemporary Economic Policy 26 (2):317-334.
47. Hu, Jin-Li, Pei-Lin Liu, and Hsuan-Chi Hung. 2008. A grey analysis of regional unemployment in Taiwan. Taiwan Economic Forum 6 (11):38-67.
48. Huang, Li-Jing. 2007. Household factors on personal expectancy of retirement age, Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics, National Central University.
49. Jann, Ben. 2008. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models. Stata Journal 8 (4):453-479.
50. Jiang, Feng-Fuh. 2001. Unemployment situations and strategies of senior workers. Conference of Issues on Recent Unemployment:48-88. (in Chinese)
51. Jiang, Feng-Fuh. 2005. A panel study of regional unemployment in Taiwan: 1987-2001. IEAS Working Paper.
52. Jiang, Feng-Fuh, and Paul Ke-Chih Liu. 2005. A panel study of regional unemployment in Taiwan: 1987-2001. Journal of Population Studies 31:1-39.
53. Juhn, Chinhui. 1992. Decline of male labor market participation: The role of declining market opportunities. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (1):79-121.
54. Juhn, Chinhui, and Simon Potter. 2006. Changes in labor force participation in the United States. The Journal of Economic Perspectives:27-46.
55. Lee, Chulhee. 2009. Labor force participation of older males in Korea: 1955-2005. NBER Working Papers.
56. Lee, Jian-Hui. 2000. The determinants of individual retirement age, Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics, National Central University. (in Chinese)
57. Lin, Ting Li. 1995. Labor force participation and retirement decisions for the elderly in Taiwan, 1989-1993., Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics, National Central University. (in Chinese)
58. Liu, Ying-Chuan, and Jr-Tsung Huang. 2003. An analysis of differences in regional unemployment rates and female labor force. In Who steals our job? edited by J. S. Lee: CommonWealth. (in Chinese)
59. Lundberg, Shelly. 1985. The added worker effect. Journal of Labor Economics 3 (1):11-37.
60. Lundberg, Shelly. 1988. Labor supply of husbands and wives: A simultaneous equations approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics 70 (2):224-235.
61. Lundberg, Shelly, and Elaina Rose. 2002. The effects of sons and daughters on men's labor supply and wages. The Review of Economics and Statistics 84 (2):251-268.
62. Luoh, Ming-Ching. 2003. The Effect of the Husband's Unemployment on the Wife's Labor Supply. Department of Economics, National Taiwan University. (in Chinese)
63. Maddala, G. S. 1983. Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics: Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, GB.
64. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni 2009. Labor supply effects of the recent Social Security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities. Journal of Public Economics.
65. McElroy, Marjorie B., and Mary J. Horney. 1981. Nash-bargained household decisions: Toward a generalization of the theory of demand. International Economic Review 22 (2):333-349.
66. Mete, Cem, and Paul T. Schultz. 2007. Health and Labour-Force Participation of the Elderly in Taiwan. Allocating Public and Private Resources across Generations:163-200.
67. Oaxaca, Ronald. 1973. Male-female wage differentials in urban labor markets. International Economic Review 14 (3):693-709.
68. OECD. OECD Demographic and Labour Force database: OECD population pyramids in 2000 and 2050 OECD Publishing 2007. Available from http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/52/31/38123085.xls.
69. OECD. Annual Labour Force Statistics database: ALFS Summary Tables. OECD Publishing 2009. Available from http://stats.oecd.org/.
70. Parsons, Donald O. 1980. The decline in male labor force participation. The Journal of Political Economy 88 (1):117-134.
71. Peracchi, Franco, and Finis Welch. 1994. Trends in labor force transitions of older men and women. Journal of Labor Economics 12 (2).
72. Pollak, Robert A. 2005. Bargaining power in marriage: Earnings, wage rates and household production: National Bureau of Economic Research.
73. San, Gee. 1988. Family labor supply with income taxes in Taiwan. Taiwan Economic Review 16 (2):251-267. (in Chinese)
74. Schirle, Tammy. 2006. The Labour Market Behaviour of Older Individuals, Department of Economics, The University of British Columbia.
75. Schirle, Tammy. 2008. Why Have the Labor Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased since the Mid 1990s? Journal of Labor Economics 26 (4):549-594.
76. Spletzer, James R. 1997. Reexamining the added worker effect. Economic Inquiry 35 (2):417-427.
77. Sung, Jai-Mie, and Jo-yup Ahn. 2006. Determining Factors of Older Workers' Employment. Labor Policy Research 6 (1):39-74.
78. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). 1978-2008. Manpower Surveys. Survey Research Data Archive, Academia Sinica.
79. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). 1978-2008. Manpower Surveys: The Manpower Utilization Survey. Survey Research Data Archive, Academia Sinica.
80. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2002. Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data: The MIT press.
81. Yun, Myeong-Su. 2004. Decomposing differences in the first moment. Economics letters 82 (2):275-280.
82. Yun, Myeong-Su. 2005. A simple solution to the identification problem in detailed wage decompositions. Economic Inquiry 43 (4):766.
83. Zweimuller, Josef, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, and Josef Falkinger. 1996. Retirement of spouses and social security reform. European Economic Review 40 (2):449-472.

連結至畢業學校之論文網頁點我開啟連結
註: 此連結為研究生畢業學校所提供,不一定有電子全文可供下載,若連結有誤,請點選上方之〝勘誤回報〞功能,我們會盡快修正,謝謝!
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top