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研究生:王宏恩
研究生(外文):Austin Horng-En Wang
論文名稱:臺灣民眾的制衡觀──第二次政黨輪替前後追蹤資料的觀察
論文名稱(外文):Citizen’s Attitude toward “Checks-and-Balances”: Exploratory Study of the Panel Data on the Second Turnover in Taiwan
指導教授:王鼎銘王鼎銘引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ding-Ming Wang
口試委員:游清鑫吳重禮
口試日期:2012-06-05
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:88
中文關鍵詞:情境制衡機關制衡政黨制衡政黨輪替麥迪遜主義定群資料
外文關鍵詞:Conditional BalancingInstitution BalancingParty BalancingTurnoverMadisonianismPanel Data
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制衡觀,是政治文化中發展與鞏固自由民主的重要價值,一種相信妥協是必要且可欲的信念。台灣民眾心中有制衡觀嗎?欲研究制衡觀,應然面與實然面為何?問卷測到的制衡觀,是原本欲測的民主價值嗎?假如我國民眾間具有不同程度的制衡觀,哪些原因可以解釋這些差異?在2004年與2008年的總統與立委選舉中,泛藍與泛綠陣營分別提倡「分權制衡」或是「貫徹政策」的對立民主價值,並在兩次大選間立場互換,提供一個良好的研究機會研究台灣民眾制衡觀的穩定與變遷。
透過文獻檢閱,本研究區分機關制衡與政黨制衡的差異:憲法將權力分立並互相制衡的機關制衡,在當代政黨政治高度發展下,需透過政黨掌握不同憲政機關的政黨制衡方能落實。接著,本文將現有制衡觀調查題目區分為機關制衡、政黨制衡、以及現況制衡三類,並說明政黨制衡型的題組在概念與邏輯上最接近理論上的制衡觀。
本研究進一步藉由心理學中民眾議題態度強弱之分,區分出「政黨制衡觀」、「情境制衡觀」(Conditional Balancing)、「其他類」三種次類型,建立偏好排序,說明2004至2008年第二次政黨輪替的特殊事件,導致三種選民在態度與行為上的差異,顯示過往制衡觀測量的偏差、及定群資料的必要性。本研究提出三種民眾政黨制衡觀來源,包括民眾經驗主動支持、統獨立場相對趨中、以及具雙重族群認同,建立七個研究假設。
本研究以TEDS2008L與TEDS2008P兩波定群資料進行分析。列聯表與折線圖顯示,民眾的制衡觀並不穩定,但非無態度:民眾的政黨認同越強,越會隨著支持政黨的興替而改變立場。ANOVA分析與迴歸模型(MNL)分析顯示,政黨制衡、情境制衡、其他類選民分別約佔20%、30%、50%。年紀較輕、教育程度較高、女性、具有一定的政治政黨認同與政治知識的選民,較有可能有政黨制衡觀。情境制衡觀者,則是政黨認同強烈、政治知識高。研究結果指出了過往分裂投票研究未考量的內生性問題,也預示未來我國政黨制衡觀選民增加的趨勢。本研究最後也針對制衡觀調查題目給予修正建議。


Citizen’s support of checks-and-balances (CB) is one of the most important democratic values in developing and consolidating democracy, a belief that compromise is both necessary and desirable. Do Taiwanese voters support the idea of CB? What are the theoretical and practical issues in analyzing attitude toward CB? Are those CB attitudes measured nowadays the same as what they apparently are? What are the origin and explanation of diverse types of CB support among Taiwanese voters?
Taiwan had just experienced the first split-government during 2000-2008. In 2004 congressional election, the incumbent pan-green camp attracted voters by the slogan of “unified and then efficient government”, while the opposite pan-blue camp appealed to voters for the value of constitutional balances. Yet, once the pan-blue camp won back both of the congress and president seats in 2008, the two camps opted for the government structure to which they previously opposed. The dramatic position switch is a rare and valuable case for analyzing Taiwanese people’s stability or change in attitudes toward CB.
In the beginning of literature review, this thesis distinguishes the “party balancing” from the “institution balancing:” institution balancing is the constitutional separation of powers, but it cannot be realized without the split party control of power, the so-called party balancing or cognitive-Madisonianism, under today’s fierce partisan competition.
Second, this article categorizes current survey questions about CB into three groups: institution balancing, party balancing, and reality balancing, the middle one surpasses the other two in focusing on the topic of researching CB in Taiwan. Thanks to the psychological theory of attitude strength, three types of CB attitudes and their preferences for party control of government are established, including “party balancing attitude,” “conditional balancing attitude,” and “others”. Furthermore, the article hypothesizes three possible and empirically testable origins of strong CB attitudes: citizen’s personal experience, the relatively mild cross-strait issue position, and dual nationality.
Two panel data are used to test the hypotheses, TEDS2008L and TEDS2008P, both of which are conducted during the second turnover period. Analysis of contingency tables and line charts reveal that Taiwanese people attitudes toward CB are not stable, but not non-attitude neither; the stronger one’s party identification is, the more possible he or she changed his or her CB attitude along with the party leader or candidate. Moreover, ANOVA and Multinomial logit regression analysis show that the proportion of party balancing, conditional balancing, and others are about 20%, 30%, and 50%. Moreover, Taiwanese people those who are young, female, highly educated, identified with party, and knowledgeable about politics, are more likely to hold the real party balancing. In contrast, people with the strongest party identification and the highest political knowledge tend to hold conditional balancing attitude. The results pinpoint the statistical problem of endogeneity that had been neglected by previous studies, and forecast the trend that the number of Taiwanese people with party balancing attitude would gradually increase in the future. In the last part of this article, the improvements of current survey question about CB are also suggested.

第壹章、緒論 1
第貳章、文獻整理 6
第一節、制衡的起源及分化 6
第二節、制衡觀的重要性及其來源 9
第三節、機關制衡、政黨制衡及其測量方式 16
第四節、制衡觀與分裂投票 19
第五節、態度強度、意識型態、與概念化程度 21
第六節、制衡觀為依變數的相關文獻 26
第七節、討論與小結 29
第參章、研究架構與分析方法 30
第肆章、制衡觀選民類型與研究假設 35
第一節、政黨制衡者之政黨認同者偏好排序 35
第二節、情境制衡觀之政黨認同者偏好排序 37
第三節、討論與假設 38
第伍章、資料處理方式 44
第一節、制衡觀 44
第二節、政黨認同與政黨認同強度 44
第三節、政黨制衡觀與情境制衡觀 45
第四節、政治知識 46
第五節、教育程度、年齡、性別 46
第六節、受訪者統獨立場與認知兩大黨統獨立場 47
第七節、受訪者雙重族群認同 50
第陸章、資料分析 51
第一節、初探我國民眾的制衡觀 51
第二節、政黨認同強度與制衡觀 58
第三節、制衡觀強度及其影響因素:個別分析 61
第四節、制衡觀強度及其影響因素:迴歸模型分析與討論 65
第柒章、結論 74

參考文獻 79
壹、中文部分 79
貳、西文部分 82


圖目錄:
圖3-1 研究架構圖 34
圖5-2整體民眾制衡觀變化圖 52
圖5-3臺灣泛藍民眾制衡觀變化圖 54
圖5-4臺灣泛綠民眾制衡觀變化圖 55
圖5-5臺灣非藍綠民眾制衡觀變化圖 57
圖5-6 藍綠認同強度與支持制衡百分比變化圖 2004-2008 60
圖5-7 選民年齡與制衡觀強度機率變化 68
圖5-8 選民政黨認同強度與制衡觀強度機率變化 70
圖5-9 臺灣人/中國人 族群認同趨勢圖 1992-2011(資料來源:國立政治大學選舉研究中心) 71

表目錄:
表2-1制衡觀問卷題目類型比較 17
表5-2整體民眾制衡觀變化列聯表分析 53
表5-3泛藍民眾制衡觀變化列聯表分析 54
表5-4泛綠民眾制衡觀變化列聯表分析 56
表5-5非藍綠民眾制衡觀變化列聯表分析 57
表5-6民眾政黨認同強度分類表 58
表5-7 政黨認同強度與支持制衡遞移性檢測 60
表5-8制衡觀類型及其影響因素:個別變數分析 62
表5-9制衡觀類型及其影響因素:MNL迴歸模型分析(統獨趨中FB) 66
表5-10制衡觀類型及其影響因素:MNL迴歸模型分析(統獨趨中CL) 67


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