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研究生:丘茗仁
研究生(外文):Ming-Jen, Chiou
論文名稱:全球化對國際房價之影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Globalization on International Housing Price
指導教授:簡美瑟簡美瑟引用關係
指導教授(外文):Mei-Se, Chien
口試委員:呂書屏張李淑容
口試委員(外文):Shu-Bing, LiuShu-jung, Chang Lee
口試日期:2015-06-07
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄應用科技大學
系所名稱:金融系金融資訊碩士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:35
中文關鍵詞:房價利率全球化追蹤資料一般動差法
外文關鍵詞:Housing PriceRatesGlobalizationPanel DataGeneralized method of moments
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本文擬探討全球化程度是否會影響各國房價。本文以 DiPasquale and Wheaton (1996)的房價模型為基礎,考量長期利率、建築成本及經濟活動三個總體經濟變數來分析其對房價之影響,並納入Dreher(2006)等全球化指數,以探討全球化程度是否將會影響房價。實證資料為1980年至2011年的跨國追蹤資料,並以一般動差法(generalized method of moments,GMM)進行估計。本研究將樣本分為全樣本群組、已開發國家群組、開發中國家群組進行結果比較分析,實證結果顯示:第一,從全樣本群組的實證結果中,前期房價上漲會導致房價上漲,而長期利率的上升會讓房價下跌。此外,全球化總指數的係數為正,此表示全球化程度的提高會使房價上漲。第二,已開發國家群組的實證結果中,前期房價上漲、經濟擴張與建築成本上升,會使已開發國家的房價上漲,而長期利率增加則會使房價下跌。至於全球化指標的影響結果,社會全球化指數的係數為正,而經濟全球化指數與政治全球化指數之係數為負。但以合併經濟、政治與社會三者的全球化總指標來看,其係數為負顯示全球化程度愈高會使其房價下跌。第三,開發中國家群組結果顯示,前期房價上漲、經濟擴張與建築成本上升,會使房價上漲,而長期利率增加使房價下跌。就全球化指標的影響結果來看,經濟全球化指標之係數為正,而政治全球化指標之係數為負。但全球化總指標的係數為正,顯示開發中國家的全球化程度愈高會使其房價上漲。
This paper intends to explore how globalization affects housing prices. In order to explore whether globlalization will affect housing price, this paper combines DiPasquale and Wheaton (1996) model and the globalization index of Dreher .et al. (2006) to set up a model of housing market. Empirical data is the annual panel data over the period 1980-2011, and the methodology is the generalized method of moments. The main findings are as follows : First, the empirical results from the full sample group, the decreasing of long-term rates will rise housing prices, and the degree of globalization will increase housing prices. Second, the empirical results of the developed countries, economic expansion and higher construction costs will rise the housing prices, while the higher long-term rates will decrease housing prices. As the result of globalization index, the higher degree of social globalization will increase housing price, but the higher degree of economic globalization and political globalization will decrease housing price. However, the higher overall index of globalization will make the housing prices fall. Third, the results of the developing countries show that the economic expansion and higher construction costs will increase housing price, but the higher long-term rates will lower the housing prices. As to the globalization index, the higher degree of economic globalization will increase housing price, but the higher degree of political globalization will lower housing price. The higher overall index of globalization will cause the housing prices rising.
摘要---------------------------------------------------------------------------i
Abstract----------------------------------------------------------------------ii
目錄---------------------------------------------------------------------------iv
表目錄------------------------------------------------------------------------v
圖目錄------------------------------------------------------------------------v
第一章 緒論-----------------------------------------------------------------1
第二章 文獻回顧-----------------------------------------------------------3
第三章 研究方法-----------------------------------------------------------7
3.1 DW模型-----------------------------------------------------------------7
3.2 Panel generalized method of moments------------------------10
3.3 Sargan test------------------------------------------------------------11
第四張 實證結果----------------------------------------------------------12
4.1 研究資料與樣本期間------------------------------------------------12
4.2 GMM估計結果分析--------------------------------------------------16
第五章 結論----------------------------------------------------------------32
參考文獻 -------------------------------------------------------------------34

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