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研究生:鍾哲豪
研究生(外文):Jhong, Che-Hao
論文名稱:台灣地區細懸浮微粒小時濃度預報App之開發
論文名稱(外文):Development of an hourly forecast application of PM2.5 concentration in Taiwan
指導教授:吳繼澄吳繼澄引用關係林勢敏林勢敏引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wu, Ji-chengLin, Shyh-ming
口試委員:陳瑞仁蔡政賢
口試委員(外文):Chen, Shui-jenCai, Zheng-xian
口試日期:2016-06-14
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立屏東科技大學
系所名稱:工業管理系所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:104
語文別:中文
論文頁數:86
中文關鍵詞:細懸浮微粒時間序列SARIMAApp
外文關鍵詞:fine particulate mattertime seriesSARIMAApp
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:244
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:9
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
國內外許多研究指出空氣汙染源中的細懸浮微粒(PM2.5)會對人體呼吸道及心血管系統造成嚴重傷害,以細懸浮微粒為重心的空氣品質管制策略已成為國際趨勢。目前空氣汙染預測相關研究多針對局部地區的日平均濃度或指數進行預報;然而,就自主健康管理的觀點而言,逐時空氣品質的預報將更有助於民眾及早因應做好防護措施。故本研究蒐集行政院環保署空氣品質監測網公布全台灣地區8個空氣品質區76個監測站2013年1月至2014年12月量測之PM2.5小時濃度數據,並提出以時間縱斷面觀點來消除資料的多重週期性,建立台灣地區PM2.5小時濃度預報之Longitudinal-SARIMA時間序列模型。最後,開發一套基於時間序列之台灣地區PM2.5小時濃度預報App,提供Android手機用戶端免費下載並可查詢全台灣各縣市鄉鎮次3日之PM2.5小時濃度預報。
The purpose of the thesis is to establish an hourly forecast system of PM2.5 concentrations in Taiwan by using and modifying SARIMA model. At first, we introduce a Longitudinal SARIMA model which uses to simulate PM¬2.5 concentration collected by an observing station in Pingtung. Shows that compare to the typical SARIMA model, using Longitudinal SARIMA model results that residuals tend to fulfil the condition of white noise. Therefore, by referring to this result, we developed a PM2.5 hourly forecast client App based on Android with a three day forward forecasting ability which could provide user to inquire the prediction of hourly PM2.5 concentrations in Taiwan areas by mobiles.
目錄
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究範圍與限制 5
1.4 研究流程與論文組織 6
第2章 文獻探討 8
2.1 細懸浮微粒之定義與形成 8
2.2 台灣地區細懸浮微粒之分布 11
2.3 空氣品質預測模型 12
2.4 空氣品質指標與即時資訊系統 15
2.5 小結 20
第3章 研究方法 23
3.1 資料蒐集與彙整 23
3.2 程式開發工具及流程 28
3.3 時間序列模型 32
3.4 量測指標 37
第4章 資料分析與系統開發 40
4.1 預測模型選定 40
4.2 系統介紹 49
4.3 系統預測能力 59
第5章 結論與建議 66
5.1 結論 66
5.2 未來研究之建議 67
參考文獻 68
附錄一 76


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