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研究生(外文):Jhong, Che-Hao
論文名稱(外文):Development of an hourly forecast application of PM2.5 concentration in Taiwan
指導教授(外文):Wu, Ji-chengLin, Shyh-ming
口試委員(外文):Chen, Shui-jenCai, Zheng-xian
外文關鍵詞:fine particulate mattertime seriesSARIMAApp
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:244
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:9
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
The purpose of the thesis is to establish an hourly forecast system of PM2.5 concentrations in Taiwan by using and modifying SARIMA model. At first, we introduce a Longitudinal SARIMA model which uses to simulate PM¬2.5 concentration collected by an observing station in Pingtung. Shows that compare to the typical SARIMA model, using Longitudinal SARIMA model results that residuals tend to fulfil the condition of white noise. Therefore, by referring to this result, we developed a PM2.5 hourly forecast client App based on Android with a three day forward forecasting ability which could provide user to inquire the prediction of hourly PM2.5 concentrations in Taiwan areas by mobiles.
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究範圍與限制 5
1.4 研究流程與論文組織 6
第2章 文獻探討 8
2.1 細懸浮微粒之定義與形成 8
2.2 台灣地區細懸浮微粒之分布 11
2.3 空氣品質預測模型 12
2.4 空氣品質指標與即時資訊系統 15
2.5 小結 20
第3章 研究方法 23
3.1 資料蒐集與彙整 23
3.2 程式開發工具及流程 28
3.3 時間序列模型 32
3.4 量測指標 37
第4章 資料分析與系統開發 40
4.1 預測模型選定 40
4.2 系統介紹 49
4.3 系統預測能力 59
第5章 結論與建議 66
5.1 結論 66
5.2 未來研究之建議 67
參考文獻 68
附錄一 76

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