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“MoneyBall” discussed about one baseball manager discarded instinct and used scientific analyses to make decisions. Under limited budgets, he insisted on using statistics data to choose good players who are undervalued in market. In this article, economic theories, including two systems,heuristics and biases, overconfidence, sinking cost and other related theories, were used to study the procedures of player selection and decision making in the movie.
Through analyses of behavioral economics, scouts and baseball organizations usually rely on associative memories in halo effect to dominate terms of selecting baseball players, however, associative memories are usually not rational, rule of thumb and Scientific Data should be both applied to determine player selection instead. Moreover, appearance superstition of baseball organizations and scouts generally came from Heuristics and Biases, and halo effect led to a trend of choosing players with good looking. For these reasons, good looking, fast running and strong body figure were identified as advantages of baseball players in the Major League Baseball. It is fallacy of opinions to believe that being signed by American baseball league equals to high chances to get signed by the Major League Baseball and promised future. Rather than insisting on irrational decisions toward existing cost, investments should be stopped immediately while they are estimated to be inefficient. Overconfidence comes from people’s false belief and abilities of prediction, thus it is likely for people to become arrogant and even make wrong decisions.
Suggestions of this article are that baseball organizations and coaches ought to consider baseball players’ trainings as foundation of baseball development, and the Chinese Professional Baseball League can not merely rely on players who played baseball in the United States, instead, if the authority can rationally implement system 2 of the two systems theory and choose players according to statistics data, baseball team cost is likely to be reduced and the entire performance can be improved.
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