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研究生:林澤齡
研究生(外文):Lin, Tse-Ling
論文名稱:年輕世代家戶儲蓄之影響因素探討
論文名稱(外文):Factors determining the saving decision of youth adulthood
指導教授:吳文傑吳文傑引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wu, Wen-Chieh
口試日期:2019-06-03
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:財政學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2019
畢業學年度:107
語文別:中文
論文頁數:89
中文關鍵詞:年輕世代儲蓄工作地點房價社會福利
外文關鍵詞:Young generationSavingsWorkplaceHouse pricesSocial welfare
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本研究使用主計處2002-2017年的家庭收支調查資料,分類四大特性變數對年輕家戶儲蓄的影響進行分析,分別為戶長個人特性、家戶特性、工作區域特性及時間與總體特性。本文使用最小平方法(OLS)與Heckman兩階段樣本選擇模型分析,實證結果顯示,大部分變數符合預期。家戶可支配所得增加對儲蓄有正向影響,房貸利息與家庭規模擴張對儲蓄有負面影響,且若經濟戶長工作地點在台北市以外的縣市,能有更多家庭儲蓄;此外,經濟戶長工作地點房價與儲蓄呈正相關。總體變數方面,經濟成長對儲蓄有正向影響,但人口老化、社會福利支出增加及消費者貸款對儲蓄有負面影響。藉由關注年輕家戶儲蓄的行為,可以追蹤社會發展情形,若能掌握相關福利政策,不僅協助年輕族群的發展,也能間接抑制世代貧富差距。
This study uses the Household Income and Expenditure Survey data from 2002 to 2017 to analyze the impact of four major characteristic variables on young household savings, which are the personal characteristics of household’s economic head, household characteristics, workplace characteristics and macroeconomic characteristics. We use the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS) and Heckman two-stage sample selection model analysis. The empirical results show that most of the variables are in line with expectations. The increase in disposable income of households has a positive impact on savings. The expansion of family size and mortgage loans has a negative impact on savings. If the household’s economic head works in counties and cities outside Taipei, there are more household savings; in addition, the house price of the workplace is positively correlated with the savings. In terms of macroeconomic variables, economic growth has a positive impact on savings, but population aging, increased social welfare spending, and consumer loans have negative impacts on savings. By paying attention to their saving behavior, it can track the development of society. If you can grasp the relevant welfare policies, it not only help the development of young people, but also suppresses the gap between the rich and the poor.
第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究動機與背景 1
第二節、研究目的 4
第三節、研究方法與限制 5
第四節、研究架構 6
第二章、文獻回顧 7
第一節、理論學說文獻 7
第二節、實證模型文獻 12
第三章、研究方法 21
第一節、計量模型設定 21
第二節、變數選擇與預期符號 27
第四章、資料來源與敘述統計 36
第一節、資料來源 36
第二節、樣本限制 36
第三節、敘述統計 37
第五章、實證結果與分析 44
第一節、模型檢定 44
第二節、傳統迴歸結果 45
第三節、OLS兩階段估計法迴歸結果 48
第四節、所得分組OLS兩階段估計法迴歸結果 51
第五節、Heckman兩階段樣本選擇模型迴歸結果 52
第六節、所得分組Heckman兩階段樣本選擇模型迴歸結果 56
第六章 結論 57
第七章 建議 60
參考文獻 85
中文文獻 85
英文文獻 86
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