臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

一直以來原油價格變化與總體經濟之關係，常為經濟學家與各國政府關心的議題。在過去三十年來，重大的經濟衰退常出現在石油價格上漲後，這使各國政府警覺到，對石油之依賴在經濟發展上是一項重大的問題。經濟學家亦開始廣泛研究原油價格變化與總體經濟關係，欲瞭解石油價格上漲是否為經濟衰退的主因。
然而，在過去的文獻中發現，原油價格上漲的衝擊的確會造成經濟衰退，是影響景氣循環的重要因素，而且在1973年以後，能源價格之變動對產出的影響具不對稱性現象，且油價上漲的影響相對於下跌還重要，另有學者指出，當景氣由繁榮轉為衰退時，此時油價若發生大幅變動對經濟體造成之影響，遠大於油價變動發生於景氣復甦時期。
在台灣，國際原油價格變化領先台灣實質GDP的變動，顯示國際原油仍是造成台灣產出波動主要的原因，但對於國際油價上漲或下跌對於台灣景氣循環之不對稱關係，以及在繁榮期或是衰退期油價變動對景氣影響之不一致性之研究卻寥寥無幾。因此，本文將就以台灣實質GDP代表景氣循環的指標，研究油價在上漲或下跌時之不對稱性影響及油價在繁榮或衰退表現得不一致性，另外針對發生油價的變動是屬於需求強勁時，對於景氣循環的影響是否不一致，分析當石油之需求強勁時油價變動，對景氣的影響效果是否與其他時期不同。以及以台灣原油進口佔GDP比率分析油價對景氣之影響力是否因對石油依存大小而對景氣有不同影響力。
依上述的研究目的進行實證後，綜合各實證結果後，本文發現油價漲跌對景氣之不對稱影響，在台灣較不顯著，這與過去之學者之觀點有所差異，另外當處於收縮期時，油價對於景氣之影響較顯著，表示當景氣處於衰退期，對於油價之變化會較敏感，這與學者Clements 和 Krolzing(2000)之觀點是一致的。
另外，本研究實證出當需求拉動下之油價變動，油價上升所造成的負向影響會較少，這表示油價上漲雖可能使成本上升而影響景氣，當需求強勁時，表示景氣為正熱絡，故經濟受其負面影響較不顯著。

Many economists and governments are very concerned about the relations between the crude oil prices and economic growth. In the past three decades. Major economic downturns often appear after the rises of oil price. This makes governments alert to that the reliance on crude oil for a country’s economy could be a serious problem. Economists have also extensively investigated the relationship between the changes in crude oil prices and the overall economic activities to explore whether the rise of oil price is the main cause of recession.
In the literature, many authors found out that the rise of oil prices will cause economic recession. Furthermore, changes in crude oil prices have asymmetric impacts on economic growth after 1973. The impacts of rising oil prices are larger than the impacts of decreasing oil prices. Some scholars also noted that the oil price changes have more significant effects on economic activity during the periods of economic downturn than r periods of recovery.
The oil price changes leading changes in real GDP in Taiwan. That is, the oil price is a key determinant of the output volatility in Taiwan. But few studies explore the asymmetric effects of oil prices on the real GDP growth rate of Taiwan. Therefore, this article tries to investigate whether the effects of oil price on real GDP in Taiwan are different during the periods of oil price ups and downs, and during the periods of economic boom and recession. In addition, this article also investigates whether the oil price impacts on economic growth rate are different between the periods of excess demand of crude oil and periods of excess supply. Meanwhile, we analyze whether the influences of oil price on the economic growth of Taiwan are dependent on Taiwan’s ratio of oil import to GDP.
The empirical results show that the asymmetric impacts for ups and downs of oil prices on the growth rate for Taiwan is not as significant as in the literature for other countries. In addition, the economic growth rates are more sensitive to the oil price changes during economic downturns than during the booms, which is consistent with the view of Clements and Krolzing (2000) .
The empirical studies also find that the oil price changes have less negative effects on economic growth in the periods of excess oil demand than in excess supply periods This means that even the rise of oil prices may increase economic costs, but the strong demand of oil also reveals that the economic situation is in the process of thriving. Therefore, the negative impacts of oil price rising on the economy are less significant.

目錄
圖表目錄 vii
第一章 諸論 1
第一節、 研究動機與目的 1
第二節、 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節、 油價與景氣循環相關性 4
第二節、 1980年代油價對景氣影響力減弱之探討 5
第三節、 油價對於台灣景氣循環相關性 7
第三章 研究方法 10
第一節、 研究期間及資料來源 10
第二節、 變數說明 11
第三節、 單根檢定 14
第四節、 實證模型介紹 15
第四章 實證結果與分析 19
第一節、 實證資料之介紹 19
第二節、 單根檢定 21
第三節、 為油價對景氣之不對稱影響分析 23
第五章 結論與建議 38
第一節、 結論 38
第二節、 建議 41
參考文獻 42
一、 國內文獻 42
二、 國外文獻 43

一、國內文獻
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12.賴惠子(2000)小型開放經濟最適貨幣政策與貨幣政策傳遞管道之探討國立台北大學經濟學系博士論文
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