臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要

熱帶氣旋是對人類造成經濟損失及人員傷亡最大的天然災害，全球暖化的情況下熱帶氣旋的氣候變化，一直以來都是氣候學界中相當熱門的議題。本研究透過比較早期美國學者依曼紐-諾藍(Emanuel and Nolan 2004)提出之颱風生成潛在指數(Genesis Potential Index, GPI)和後續依曼紐以濕熵差取代相對濕度之改進版本χGPI指數(Emanuel 2010)，以及Tsou and Chiang (2016)針對GPI指數提出修正的版本Modified-χGPI指數，並發展一個更適合推估西北太平洋海域颱風活動變化趨勢之χMqGPI指數。
我們利用美國國家海洋大氣管理局署(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA)提供之颱風最佳路徑資料(International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, IBTrACS)以及歐洲中期天氣預報中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)之大氣海洋再分析資料ERA-Interim，詳細診斷分析上述五個颱風活動潛在指數的表現，除了Modified-GPI指數外，另外四個指數都能反應台風活動季節上的變化。在反應颱風活動年代際變化趨勢方面，以χMqGPI指數掌握較好；空間分佈上則是傳統GPI指數與MqGPI指數模擬較好，其次為χMqGPI指數。
藉由比較IPCC AR5與再分析資料的結果後，我們選用三種表現較佳颱風生成潛在指數(χGPI、Modified-χGPI、χMqGPI)，利用IPCC AR5 暖化情境RCP8.5的模式資料來討論暖化情境下颱風活動可能變化，以及造成此便化背後之物理因素。研究結果顯示，在暖化情境下，西北太平洋颱風生成數沒有明顯變化，但颱風活動路徑有偏北趨勢，可能和太平洋副高強度在暖化下偏弱有關。

關鍵字：西北太平洋、熱帶氣旋、熱帶氣旋生成潛在指數、IPCC AR5。

目錄
致謝…………………………………………………………Ⅰ
摘要…………………………………………………………Ⅲ
目錄…………………………………………………………Ⅳ
表目錄………………………………………………………Ⅶ
圖目錄………………………………………………………Ⅷ
第一章 前言…………………………………………………1
1.1緣起和動機………………………………………………1
1.2文獻回顧…………………………………………………2
1.3 論文架構…………………………………………………4
第二章 研究資料、方法………………………………………5
2.1 颱風資料…………………………………………………5
2.2 環境場資料………………………………………………6
2.3 模式資料…………………………………………………7
2.4研究方法…………………………………………………8
2.4.1 觀測颱風活動指數………………………………8
2.4.2量化颱風活動指數……………………………8
2.4.3 粗濕穩定度……………………………………10
第三章 颱風氣候特徵分析……………………………………13
3.1 全球颱風活動特徵……………………………………13
3.2 1979年至2014年西太平洋颱風活動………………18
3.3北半球夏季大氣環流特徵………………………………22
第四章 熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數氣候特徵分析………………27
4.1 颱風活動指數…………………………………………27
4.1.1 季節循環………………………………………28
4.1.2 年代變化………………………………………29
4.1.3 空間變化………………………………………30
4.2熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數分項特徵………………………36
第五章 模式中的熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數……………………51
5.1模式中熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數的時間與空間分佈……51
5.2模式中熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數分項特徵………………57
第六章 暖化情境下未來氣候熱帶氣旋活動變化……………65
6.1未來模式中熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數的時間與空間分佈…65
6-2未來模式中熱帶氣旋潛在生成指數分項特徵………72
6-3未來模式前後20年的差異……………………………80
第七章 結論與未來工作………………………………………87
7-1西北太平洋海域之熱帶氣旋潛在指數比較……………87
7-2暖化情境下未來氣候熱帶氣旋活動的可能變化………88
7-3未來研究方向……………………………………………89
參考文獻…………………………………………………………92

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