臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

無論是創新或是既有的產品，在研發時皆需經過產品試驗製造的過程，在開始進行製程轉移到能夠進行的良率與產量的期間，即為製造過程的ramp-up。由於此過程在生產過程中無法避免，產品的良率尚未達到穩定，而無法進行量產，因此若能縮短整個ramp-up的過程將有助於企業提昇整體的競爭力。本研究將使用系統動態學進行研究，期望能從中找出影響ramp-up的關鍵因素。
在模型建構時，可分成兩個部份進行而分別建構出：因果迴路圖、系統動態模型。因果迴路圖主要是將所要研究問題的相關因素轉換成為圖形化，並了解其之間的關聯性；而系統動態模式為根據因果迴路圖的因果關係以數學方程式表達，以便進行模擬。當模型建構完成後，需經過一些測試，以使模型能夠符合效度。
根據實驗的結果顯示，若要縮短ramp-up過程，關鍵的因素有：產品複雜度、重新加工因子、價格變動週期、理想庫存週期、目標產量。當生產線在ramp-up的初期，可大幅地降低目標產量，以使生產線在此期間有足夠的時間進行學習以及克服生產的問題；待產品良率逐漸穩定後，即可將目標產量逐步的調升。而其餘的變數則是屬於產品設計、生產能力、產品定價、庫存調整等方面的問題，雖然可調整的幅度不大，但若能在產品上線之前進行某種程度的設定，對於產品良率的提升也有相當的助益。

No matter it is development of new product or production of existing product, before transferring to mass production phase, both need to undergo a so-called “ramp-up” stage, during which yield is still low. Since “ramp-up” is an inevitable phase before stable yield and mass production can be achieved, it is significant to shorten the ramp-up process in order to increase the whole competitiveness of the industry. This study will utilize System Dynamics to investigate factors that affect ramp-up process and create a model for further analysis in a hope to single out the key factors that help shorten ramp-up process.
During the model building process, the study is usually diverted into two parts, each leads to the creation of Casual Loop Diagram(CLD) and System Dynamic Model. The CLD is mainly introduced to transform the related factors of a researched topic into graphics to illustrate their causal relation, while System Dynamic Model is introduced to formulate the causal relation of CLD for simulation purpose. When the model is erected, some tests need to be done to verify its credibility.
Based on the result of the experiment, the key factors that contribute to the shortening of ramp-up process are product complexity, rework factor, price change coverage, desired inventory coverage, target production. When production line is in the early stage of ramp-up, target production should be
significantly reduced to allow sufficient time to overcome potential production problems. When yield becomes gradually stable, the productivity will also grow. The remaining factors can be classified into categories such as product design, production capability, product pricing, and inventory adjustment, etc. Although the adjustability of the remaining key factors is minimal, certain degree of adjustment before mass production will significantly increase the yield.

摘要.....................................................................................................................i
ABSTRACT........................................................................................................ii
目錄...................................................................................................................iv
圖目錄...............................................................................................................vi
表目錄.............................................................................................................viii
第一章 緒論....................................................................................................1
1.1 研究動機.............................................................................................1
1.2 研究目的.............................................................................................2
1.3 研究流程.............................................................................................3
1.4 研究範圍與限制.................................................................................4
第二章 文獻探討............................................................................................6
2.1 ramp-up................................................................................................6
2.1.1 ramp-up概述.............................................................................6
2.1.2 影響ramp-up之主要因素........................................................9
2.2 系統動態學.......................................................................................14
2.2.1 系統動態概述........................................................................14
2.2.2 系統動態之使用....................................................................15
第三章 模式建構..........................................................................................18
3.1 模式之建構與分析流程...................................................................18
3.2 研究工具...........................................................................................20
3.3 動態假說...........................................................................................22
3.3.1 物料生產................................................................................22
3.3.2 產品價格................................................................................25
3.3.3 作業人員................................................................................25
3.4 模擬模式...........................................................................................29
3.4.1 物料生產子系統....................................................................29
3.4.2 產品價格子系統....................................................................35
3.4.3 作業人員子系統....................................................................36
3.5 參數說明...........................................................................................42
3.5.1可控制變數.............................................................................42
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3.5.2不可控制變數.........................................................................42
3.5.3 觀察變數................................................................................43
3.6 情境與政策.......................................................................................43
第四章 模擬與分析......................................................................................45
4.1 模式測試...........................................................................................45
4.1.1 模式測試方法........................................................................45
4.1.2 行為敏感度測試....................................................................48
4.2 基本模擬...........................................................................................51
4.3 情境模擬...........................................................................................53
4.4 政策模擬...........................................................................................63
第五章 結論與建議......................................................................................71
5.1 研究結論...........................................................................................72
5.2 後續研究之建議...............................................................................74
參考文獻..........................................................................................................76
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圖目錄
圖1-1 本研究之研究流程................................................................................4
圖2-1 典型的ramp-up過程..............................................................................7
圖2-2 產品良率與學習效果之循環..............................................................10
圖2-3 因果迴路圖(Causal Loop Diagram, CLD)..........................................16
圖2-4 動態模式之示意圖..............................................................................17
圖3-1 本研究模擬模型之建構與實驗流程..................................................19
圖3-2 本研究基本模式之架構......................................................................22
圖3-3 由在製品與價格所形成之因果迴路圖..............................................23
圖3-4 由不良品與重新加工所形成之因果迴路圖......................................24
圖3-5 由訂價所形成之因果迴路圖..............................................................25
圖3-6 由累積經驗所形成之因果迴路圖......................................................26
圖3-7 影響ramp-up因素的基本模式因果迴路圖........................................28
圖3-8 產品價格與供應商產品供應量之關係圖..........................................31
圖3-9 市場的產品需求量與產品價格之關係圖..........................................32
圖3-10 不良品與製程轉換次數之關係圖....................................................34
圖3-11 物料生產子系統之動態模擬模式....................................................34
圖3-12 價格與存貨比例之關係圖................................................................36
圖3-13 訂價子系統之動態模擬模式............................................................36
圖3-14 製程轉換率與作業人員不熟練度之關係圖....................................38
圖3-15 由累積經驗和人員僱用率形成之不熟練比關係圖........................38
圖3-16 產品良率與人力聘雇量之關係圖....................................................39
圖3-17 累積經驗與實際產量之關係圖........................................................39
圖3-18 作業人員之動態模擬模式................................................................40
圖3-19 本研究建立ramp-up系統動態模擬之初步模型..............................41
圖3-20 各變數與系統之關係........................................................................43
圖4-1 選擇輸入變數進行敏感度測試..........................................................49
圖4-2 選擇觀察變數以分析其行為變化......................................................49
圖4-3 經過敏感度測試在製品的輸出結果..................................................50
圖4-4 經過敏感度測試產品良率的輸出結果..............................................51
圖4-5 在製品之輸出結果－基本模擬..........................................................52
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圖4-6 產品良率之輸出結果－基本模擬......................................................53
圖4-7 情境A之輸出結果...............................................................................55
圖4-8 情境B之輸出結果...............................................................................57
圖4-9 情境C之輸出結果...............................................................................59
圖4-10 情境D之輸出結果.............................................................................61
圖4-11 政策A1與A2之輸出結果................................................................65
圖4-12 政策A1與A2之輸入........................................................................66
圖4-13 政策B1與B2之輸出結果................................................................68
圖4-14 政策B1與B2之輸入........................................................................69
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表目錄
表2-1 不同系統問題之解決方法..................................................................15
表4-1 增強系統動態模式效度之測試方法..................................................45
表4-2 情境A之輸出結果比較.......................................................................56
表4-3 情境B之輸出結果比較.......................................................................58
表4-4 情境C之輸出結果比較.......................................................................60
表4-5 情境D之輸出結果比較.......................................................................62
表4-6 各模擬情境之最佳輸出結果比較......................................................62
表4-7 調整目標產量之輸出結果比較..........................................................66
表4-8 調整人力僱用率之輸出結果比較......................................................69

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