臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

歐豬五國歷經2010年歐洲主權債信危機爆發後的經濟衰退，國內卻仍有公司信用評等高於主權債信二級以上者。本研究從三大信用評等機構Fitch、Moody’s以及Standard and Poor’s擷取此等公司樣本以進行質化分析，探討為何這些公司的債信比其國家好，並檢視在歐債危機時，樣本公司的無擔保優先順位公司債利率是否比公債殖利率更適合作為其國家的基準利率。樣本共有七家企業，分布於歐豬五國及不同產業，分別為Cimpor Cimentos de Portugal, S.G.P.S. S.A.、Energias de Portugal, S.A.、AWAS Aviation Capital Ltd.、EniSpA、Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. S.A.、Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A.以及Banco Santander, S.A.。

研究流程有三。一、運用他們的2010年年度報告分析自2009年到2010年，這兩年營運與財務受歐債危機衝擊的程度；二、運用陳明道的集團企業財務分析模式和金融控股公司功能性財務分析模式，來檢視他們的2010年度財務報表。瞭解在歐債危機時，他們營運與財務的健全程度。三、比較無擔保優先順位公司債利率是否比公債殖利率更適合作為其國家的基準利率。

結果顯示，七家企業信用評等高於主權債信的共同原因為跨國經營，其產業大多屬民生必需、低度順景氣循環，以及健全的經營與財務管理。從利率比較得知，雖然7家中僅Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A.和EniSpA兩家有可與公債殖利率比較的利率，然這兩家的長期借款利率皆低於其國家公債殖利率，在主權債務危機發生時，或許更適合作為他們國家的基準利率。

Going through the economic downturn of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010, some firms in PIIGS still retain credit ratings two notches above their sovereign ratings. From Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard and Poor’s, this paper extracts those companies to investigate the underlying factorsthat may explain their resilience to the crisis and to verify if interest rates on their senior unsecured bonds are indeed more stable and better serve as benchmarkrates thantheir government bond rates. The sample consists of 7 firmsthat cover all countries in PIIGS and spread out in diverse industries, includingCimpor Cimentos de Portugal, S.G.P.S. S.A., Energias de Portugal, S.A., AWAS Aviation Capital Ltd., EniSpA, Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. S.A., Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A., and Banco Santander, S.A.

Utilizing annual reports of 2010, this thesis first studies the impacts of the European sovereign debt crisis on their operating results and financial positions.Next, it uses the models developed by Chen (2007 and 2008) to measure their operating and financial strength. Finally, it compares the interest rates on their senior unsecured bonds against their government bonds. The results indicate that multinational operation,in industries of necessity with low cyclicality, and sound operating and financial management are the major factors that explain the sample companies’resilience to the crisis.In addition, four out of the four companies with available data having theirlong-term borrowing rateslower than their government bond rates.

摘要 .................................................................................................................................i
Abstract ...........................................................................................................................ii
致謝辭 ............................................................................................................................iii
目錄 ................................................................................................................................iv
圖目錄 .............................................................................................................................v
表目錄 ............................................................................................................................vi
第一章緒論 ...................................................................................................................1
第一節研究背景與動機 .......................................................................................... 1
第二節研究目的與限制 ...........................................................................................2
第二章資料來源............................................................................................................3
第三章研究方法............................................................................................................4
第一節集團企業財務分析模式................................................................................4
第二節金融控股公司功能性財務分析模式............................................................6
第四章個案分析與利率比較 .......................................................................................8
第一節個案分析︰Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A....................8
第二節個案分析：Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. S.A......................................10
第三節個案分析：AWAS Aviation Capital Ltd.....................................................12
第四節個案分析：Energias de Portugal, S.A........................................................14
第五節個案分析：Cimpor Cimentos de Portugal.................................................16
第六節個案分析：EniSpA..................................................................……………17
第七節個案分析：Banco Santander, S.A..............................................................19
第八節利率比較.......................................................................................................21
第五章結論...................................................................................................................25
參考文獻.......................................................................................................................26
附錄.................................................................................................................................27

中文部份
1.陳明道（2008），金融控股公司功能性財務分析，貨幣觀測與信用評等第69期，台灣經濟新報社，第35-51頁。
2.陳明道、李漢力（2007），台灣紡織業價值鏈分析，貨幣觀測與信用評等第65期，台灣經濟新報社，第28-45頁。
3.陳明道（2012），企業評價與分析，課程講義
4.沈中華（2011），信評公司真的可信？，中國時報，2011-08-10
5.黃得豐（2011），從財金觀點析述歐債危機之發展，國家研究報告

英文部份
1.Fitch www.fitchratings.com
2.Moody’s www.moodys.com
3.Standard and Poor’s www.standardandpoors.com
4.IFRS 9B5.4.13, www.ifrs.org
5.Cimpor Cimentos de Portugal, S.G.P.S. S.A., annual report in 2010
6.Energias de Portugal, S.A., annual report in 2010
7.AWAS Aviation Capital Ltd., annual report in 2010
8.EniSpA, annual report in 2010
9.Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. S.A., annual report in 2010
10.Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A., annual report in 2010
11.Banco Santander, S.A., annual report in 2010
12.IMF Working Paper, The Costs of Sovereign Default, October 2008.
13.William L. Watts(January 14, 2009), S&P cuts Greece's credit rating, Market Watch
14.Yilan(December 12, 2009), S&P May Cut Greece’s Credit Rating, Turkey & Macedonia
15.Helena Smith & Ashley Seager(December 8, 2009), Financial markets tumble after Fitch downgrades Greece's credit rating, Guardian
16.David Oakley(December 8, 2009) ,Greece downgraded over high debt, Financial Times