臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

全球國際貿易仰賴海上運輸媒介來發展經濟，而保險公司則是藉由核保利潤維持經營利潤與績效，本研究透過1980-2013年之海上貨物運輸險樣本，測試臺灣產物保險業在海上貨物運輸保險的核保邊際利潤之影響因素，以及核保邊際利潤、短期利率、盈餘與資產比率、盈餘與淨簽單保費比率等解釋變變數之趨勢，並依此探究核保邊際利潤變動之影響。經國內外相關文獻回顧後經建立假說，初步選定與研究相關的變數，並設定落後期數，以階層迴歸方式分析，逐一將解釋變數加入迴歸模型中，觀察五個不同階段迴歸模型的整體解釋力和各解釋變數對模型的影響程度。研究發現(1)海上貨物運輸保險業之核保邊際利潤落後期數實證結果顯示核保邊際利潤變動與落後一期、落後二期之短期利率變動呈顯著關係，可見理性預期/制度性因素干擾假說成立；(2)短期利率受時間落後過程而呈現正向關係；(3)兩項承保能量指標「盈餘與資產比率」和「盈餘與淨簽單保費比率」時可見兩者對核保邊際利潤變量解釋程度相當且呈正向關係。

Global trade relies on marine transport to develop economy, as well as insurers rely on underwriting margins to preserve the operating profit and performance. This empirical study investigates the determination of the underwriting margins determination of Taiwanese ocean marine insurance during the period 1980-2013 that approaching by lagged periods with underwriting margins, short-term interest rates, policyholder’ s surplus to assets of capacity(K-SA)and policyholder’s surplus to net written premiums of capacity(K-SP). As above explanatory variables are created by the lag terms to determination the trend and influenced of underwriting margins.
Under five regression models, we use the Hierarchical regression analysis to explore the determination of the underwriting margin of ocean marine insurance. The results provide evidence that empirical models support the hypothesis mentions the existence of underwriting margins margins which treated by information lags and reporting lags in Taiwan. Short-term interest rate is positively associated with underwriting margin by lag influence. The relations between K-SA indexe, K-SP indexe and the underwriting margins are statistical significantly different in marine cargo insurance case.

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VI
壹、緒論 1
貳、相關理論與文獻回顧 9
一、核保邊際利潤 12
二、短期利率 15
三、「盈餘與資產比率」與「盈餘與淨簽單保費比率」 16
參、海上貨物運輸保險概況 21
一、核保邊際利潤 25
二、短期利率 27
三、「盈餘與資產比率」及「盈餘與淨簽單保費比率」 28
肆、實證研究方法 31
一、實證研究方法 31
二、本研究變數選取 33
伍、實證結果與分析 35
一、樣本收集與敘述統計 35
二、實證結果與分析 38
陸、結論與討論 44
一、結論 44
二、討論 45
參考文獻 46

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三、電子資源：
1.中央再保資訊NO.0048
http://www.crc.com.tw/files/public2/CRI048.htm
2.因應當前全球金融危機之對策暨其政策挑戰
http://www.cbc.gov.tw/public/Attachment/01614405971.pdf
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http://www.tii.org.tw/fcontent/database/sta_test/database04.asp
4.產業史
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9.明台產物公司簡介
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