臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

貨物運輸業對經濟發展扮演著重要角色，然而貨運車輛事故卻是在許多地方的生活威脅，因此，國內外以往從事貨車肇事風險分析研究者不在少數。綜觀以往的肇事研究相關文獻，在校估具有可靠度之風險分析模式時，常遭遇到三個問題：(1) 缺乏正確的風險描述：以往相關於交通肇事風險的研究中，大部分對於肇事風險之定義並不完整。一般而言，肇事風險被定義為肇事發生次數或發生率，少部分定義為肇事發生後果或發生嚴重度。完整的肇事風險的定義應為肇事發生與肇事發生規模之組合。(2) 缺乏量化肇事情境比較：交通肇事情境是描述肇事會在何種狀況下發生或肇事在何種狀況下發生之規模。這些交通肇事情境通常以人員、車輛、道路及環境因子所組成。傳統的相關研究大部分只針對上述一或兩項肇事因子進行肇事分析，因此肇事因子間的變動所產生的肇事情境並無法被完整地衡量出來。(3) 不相容的曝光量資訊：曝光量資訊對肇事風險分析之設計有莫大的影響，然而曝光量資訊的取得卻經常缺乏，或缺乏可靠性。以往相關肇事研究指出，由於連續曝光量資訊與類目型肇事資料並沒有相容性，此將使得肇事分析發生困難。因此對於肇事風險分析而言，曝光量資訊之問題需要被重新探討。
有鑑於這些問題，本研究旨在應用量化風險評估的概念，發展一量化貨車肇事風險情境分析模式，並對於國內營業貨車安全肇事風險進行衡量。研究結果顯示國內營業貨車的高肇事率與高肇事風險情境為大貨車行駛於非高速公路系統上；而高肇事規模情境則為包含成年駕駛人或在非高速公路系統上。此外，本研究之風險衡量結果亦可提供政府與業者進行安全管制措施，並提供保險業者之實際應用。

Freight transport plays an important role in economics development. However, the freight vehicle accidents are life threatening in many areas. So there have been innumerable studies on freight vehicle risk analysis. However, it is observed that attempts to calibrate reliable risk analysis models were hampered by three basic concerns: (1) Lack of accurate risk descriptions: previous accident studies were found to be devoid of complete risk implication. In many cases, risk was merely perceived as accident occurrences, rather than as the combination of accident occurrences and accident consequences by risk definition. (2) Lack of quantitative scenario comparisons: accident scenarios describe the circumstances where accidents occur. They are in general constituted by human, vehicle, road and weather factors. Previous studies on scenario analysis were mostly focused on one or two factors. Impacts of the varied scenarios have not been satisfactorily quantified. (3) Incompatible exposure information: exposure is vital but frequently unavailable for or incommensurate with the risk analysis designed. Previous studies indicated that incompatibility between continuous exposure information and categorical accident data, and the absence of comprehensive exposure information always obstructed the accident analysis. Exposure alternatives thus need to be explored.
Taking these concerns into account, this study aims to develop a quantitative risk model for scenario analysis of major freight vehicle accidents and conduct an empirical study of the issue in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that accident rates and accident risks of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. The results could provide the government for safety regulations and the insurance for practices.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究範圍與對象 2
1.3 研究內容 3
1.4 研究方法 4
1.5 研究流程 5
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1 貨運營運安全問題之相關文獻 7
2.1.1 國內貨物運輸安全環境 7
2.1.2 影響行車安全之因素 9
2.1.3 小結 16
2.2 肇事分析之相關文獻 17
2.2.1肇事趨勢分析之相關文獻 17
2.2.2 肇事因果分析之相關文獻 19
2.2.3小結 28
2.3 量化風險評估之相關回顧 29
2.3.1 風險的定義 29
2.3.2 風險管理的定位與內容 30
2.3.3 量化風險評估架構 35
2.3.4 風險管理在運輸業之應用 41
第三章 肇事風險模式建立----一般化線性模式(GLM) 45
3.1 一般化線性模式之適用性 45
3.2 一般化線性模式之理論基礎 47
3.2.1 一般化線性模式之數學模式 47
3.2.2 一般化線性模式之參數校估 50
3.2.3 一般化線性模式之逐步模式檢定 51
3.3 量化肇事風險情境模式之建立 54
3.3.1 量化肇事率與肇事規模模式描述 54
3.3.2 肇事風險情境描述 56
3.3.2 貨車肇事風險情境模式之建立 58
第四章 營業貨車肇事資料庫之建立 60
4.1 營業貨車肇事資料 60
4.2 貨車肇事資料處理 62
4.3 貨車肇事資料庫建立 68
第五章 營業貨車肇事風險衡量 72
5.1 營業貨車肇事率衡量 72
5.1.1 肇事率模式設定 72
5.1.2 肇事率模式之校估與檢定 73
5.2 營業貨車肇事規模衡量 77
5.2.1 肇事規模模式設定 77
5.2.2 肇事規模模式之校估與檢定 78
5.3 營業貨車肇事風險衡量 82
第六章 貨車肇事風險情境分析與應用 83
6.1 營業貨車肇事率情境分析 84
6.2 營業貨車肇事規模情境分析 86
6.3 營業貨車肇事風險情境分析 88
6.4 貨車肇事風險應用 89
第七章 結論與建議 94
7.1 結論 94
7.2 建議 95
參考文獻 97
附錄1 104
附錄2 106

【1】 交通部，「汽車運輸業靠行營業問題之研究」，民國八十六年一月。
【2】 李文堯，「高速公路肇事時間數列分析以地理資訊系統為評量工具」，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國八十四年六月。
【3】 周文生，「砂石車肇事分析與對策探討」，砂石車安全管理研討會，民國八十八年九月。
【4】 林大煜，「道路交通肇事資料分析方法之檢討」，運輸計劃季刊，第八卷，第三期，頁379-414，民國六十八年七月。
【5】 林恆卉，「機場鄰近地區風險量測及因應策略之研究」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國八十九年六月。
【6】 孫海岸，「大貨車運輸安全風險之生命價值與風險降低策略之研究」，國立高雄第一科技大學運輸與倉儲研究所碩士論文，民國九十年六月。
【7】 張新立，「重型車輛安全分析與營業大貨車肇事預防措施之研究」，交通部運輸研究所報告，民國七十七年十月。
【8】 張新立，「影響二車道公路行車安全因素之研究」，運輸計畫季刊，第十八卷，第四期，頁441-450，民國七十八年十二月。
【9】 陳賓權，「大貨車肇事原因與事故特性之分析及管理辨法之探討」， 中華民國運輸學會第七屆論文研討會，民國八十一年十二月。
【10】 戚培芳，「中山高速公路肇事分析模式之研究」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國八十六年六月。
【11】 許添本、王義川，「全樣本肇事資料與交通安全分析之關係」，中華民國運輸學會，第十二屆學術論文研討會，民國八十六年十二月。
【12】 黃如妙，「時間序列分析在肇事預測及安全政策評估之應用」，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國七十七年六月。
【13】 黃新薰，「持續開車與大貨車行車安全之研究」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國七十九年六月。
【14】 黃重洲，「砂石車輛安全標準之探討與研議」，砂石車安全管理研討會，民國八十八年九月。
【15】 蔡明志、葉純志、林金美、蘇建誌，「砂石車駕駛人工作環境與違規肇事之相互關係探討」，砂石車安全管理研討會，民國八十八年九月。
【16】 蔡明志、洪敏三、葉純志，「航空運輸安全風險管理與保險整合策略之研究」，中華民國第六屆運輸與安全研討會，民國八十八年十一月。
【17】 蔡明志，「風險管理在大眾運輸安全管理管制課題之發展應用」，運輸計畫季刊，第二十九卷第一期，181~212頁，民國八十九年。
【18】 歐輝政、吳木富，「中山高速公路交通事故趨勢分析之研究」，中華民國運輸學會第七屆研討會，民國八十一年十二月。
【19】 劉鴻喜，「台灣區中山高速公路交通肇事之研究」，中國文化大學地學研究所碩士論文，民國八十二年六月。
【20】 鍾志成，「道路幾何設計與行車安全之研究以高速公路基隆至楊梅段為例」，國立交通大學交通運輸研究所碩士論文，民國七十七年六月。
【21】 蘇雄義、廖偉至，「汽車貨櫃運業產業調查分析與競爭策略研究」，運輸計劃季刊，第二十八卷第一期，民國八十八年三月。
【22】 Abdel-Aty, M. A.and Radwan, A. E. (2000). Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.32, pp. 633-542.
【23】 Agresti, A. (1996). An introduction to categorical data analysis. Johm Wiley & Son, Inc.
【24】 Al-Ghamdi, A. (1993). Comparison of accident rates using the likelihood ratio testing technique. Transportation Research Record 1401, pp.50-54.
【25】 Braver, E. R., Preusser, C. W., Preusser, D. F., Baum, H. M., Beilock, R., & Ulmer, R. (1992). Long hours and fatigue: a survey of tractor-trailer drivers. Journal of Public Health Policy, Vol.13, pp.341-366.
【26】 Brüde, U. (1995). What is happening to the number of fatalities in road accidents? A model for forecasts and continuous monitoring of development up to the year 2000. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, No.3, pp.405-410.
【27】 Chang, G. L., Chen, C.H. & Arter, E. C. (1993). Intervention analysis for the impacts of the 65 mph speed limit on rural interstate highway facilities. Journal of Safety Research, Vol.24, pp.33-53.
【28】 Chipman, M. L., McGregor, C. G., Smiley, A. M., & Lee-Gosslin, N. M. (1993). The role of exposure in comparisons of a crash risk among different drivers and driving environments. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.25, pp.207-211.
【29】 Chliaoutakis, J. E., Darviri, C., & Demakakos, P. T. (1999). The impact of young drivers’ lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.31, pp.771-780.
【30】 Daniel,　B., Campbell, K., & Green, P. E. (1993). Accident rates for heavy truck-tractors in Michigan. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.25, No.3, pp.307-321.
【31】 Dionne, G., Desjardins, D., Laberge-Nadeau, C., & Maag, U. (1995). Medical conditions, risk exposure, and truck drivers’ accidents: an analysis with count data regression models. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, No.3, pp. 295-305.
【32】 Doherty, S. T., Andrey, J. C., & MacGregor, C. (1998). The situational risks of young drivers: the influence of passengers, time of day and day of week on accident rates. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.30, pp.45-52.
【33】 Evans, A. W. (1994). Evaluating public transport and road safety measures. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.26, pp.411-428.
【34】 Evans, L. (1991). Traffic safety and the driver. Van Nostrand Reinhold. New York.
【35】 Forkenbrock, D. J. (1999). External costs of intercity truck freight transportation. Transportation Research Part A, Vol.33, pp.505-526.
【36】 Fridstrøm, L. F., Ifver, J., Ingebrigtsen, S., Kulmala, R., & Thomsen, L. K. (1995). Measuring the contribution of randomness, exposure, weather, and daylight to the variation in road accident counts. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, No.1, pp.1-20.
【37】 Gregersen, N. P., & Bjurulf, P. (1996). Young novice drivers: Towards a model of their accident involvement. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.28, pp. 229-241.
【38】 Häkkänen, H., & Summala, H. (2001). Fatal traffic accidents among trailer truck drivers and accident causes as viewed by other truck drivers. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.32, pp.187-196.
【39】 Heino, A., Molen, H. H., & Wilde, G. J. S. (1996). Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation. Safety Science. Vol.22, No.1-3, pp.35-48.
【40】 Ivan, J., & O’Mara, P. (1997). Prediction of traffic accident rates using Poisson regression. Presented at the 76th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
【41】 Ivan, J. N., Pasupathy, R. K., & Ossenbruggen, P. J. (1999). Differences in causality factors for single and multi-vehicle crashes on two-lane roads. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.31, pp.695-704.
【42】 Jessie, W. S. H., & Yuan, W. (1998). The efficacy of safety policies on traffic fatalities in Singapore. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.30, No.6, pp.745-754.
【43】 Joshua, S., & Garber, N. (1990). Estimating truck accident rate and involvement using linear and Poisson regression models. Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol.15, pp.41-58.
【44】 Jovan, P., & Chang, H. (1986). Modeling the relationship of accidents to miles traveled. Transportation Research Record 1068.
【45】 Keall, M. D. (1995). Pedestrian exposure to risk of road accident in New Zealand. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, pp.729-740.
【46】 Khansnabis, S., & Lyoo, S.H. (1989). Use of time series analysis to forecast truck accident. Transportation Research Record 1249, pp.30-36.
【47】 Kim, K., Li, L., Richarson, H., & Nitz, L. (1998). Drivers at fault: Influences of age, sex, and vehicle type. Journal of Safety Research, Vol.29, pp.171-179.
【48】 Kim, K., Nitz, L., Richardson, J., & Li, L. (1995). Personal and behavioral predictions of automobile crash and injury severity. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, pp.469-481.
【49】 Knuiman, M. W., Council, F. M., & Reinfurt, D. W. (1993). The effect of median width on highway accident rates. Transportation Research Record 1401, pp.70-80.
【50】 Laberge-Nadeau, C., Dionne, G., Maag, U., Desjardins, D., Vanasse, C., & Ékoé, J. (1996). Medical conditions and the severity of commercial motor vehicle drivers’ road accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.28, pp.43-51.
【51】 Levine, N., Kim, K. E., & Nitz, L. H. (1995). Daily fluctuations in Honolulu motor vehicle accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, No.6, pp.785-796.
【52】 Lyznicki, J. M., Doege, T. C., Davis, R. M., & Williams, M. A. (1998). Sleepiness, driving, and motor vehicle crashes. Journal of American Medical Association 279, 23, pp.1908-1913.
【53】 Mark, G. S., & Robert, E. M. (1997). Probabilistic risk assessment of engineering systems. Chapman & Hall, London.
【54】 McCarthy, R. L. (1989). An examination of the relationship between vehicle mass, wheelbase and safety. The Winter Annual Meeting of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, San Fransciso, pp.12-15.
【55】 Miaou, S. (1994). The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road section: Poisson versus Negative Binomial regression. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.26, No.4.
【56】 Miaou, S., Hu, P., Wright, T., Rathi, A., & Davis, S. (1992). Relationship between truck accidents and highway geometric design: a Poisson regression approach. Transportation Research Record 1376, pp.10-18.
【57】 Monaco, K., & Williams, E. (2000). Assessing the determinants of safety in the trucking industry. Journal of Transportation and Statistic, pp.1-11.
【58】 Mori, Y., & Mizohata, M. (1995). Characteristics of older road users and their effect on road safety. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, pp.391-404.
【59】 MuCullagh, P., & Nelder, J.A. (1990) Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall, London.
【60】 OECD. (1996). Training of truck driver. Road Transport Research. Paris.
【61】 Poch, M., & Mannering, F. (1996). Negative binomial analysis of intersection accident frequencies. Journal of Transportation Engineering 122, No.2.
【62】 Rogers, P. N., & Schoening, S. E. (1994). A time series evaluation of California’s 1982 driving-the-influence legislative reforms,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.26, No.1, pp.63-78.
【63】 Saccomanno, F. F., & Buyco, C. (1988). Generalized loglinear models of truck accident rates. Transportation Research Record 1172, pp.23-31.
【64】 Scott, A. W., Hassan, A. M., Gillam, T. J., & Mackay, M. (1995). Car and truck collisions revisited. Proceedings of the International IRCOBI Conference on the Biomechanics of Impacts, Brunnen, Switzerland.
【65】 Shankar, V., Mannering, F., & Barfield, W. (1995). Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.27, No.3, pp.371-389.
【66】 Shinar, D. (1977). Driver visual limitations, diagnosis and treatment. Technical Report DOT-HS-5-01275. Blooming, IN: Indiana University.
【67】 Skinner, D., & Stearns, M. D. (1999). Safe mobility in an aging world. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
【68】 Spangler, M. D. (1987). A summary perspective on NRC’s implict and explicit use of De Minimis risk concepts in regulating for radiological protection in the nuclear fuel cycle. In C. Whipple (ed.), De Minimis Risk, Plenum Press, New York, pp.111-43.
【69】 TRB (1986). Twin Trailer Trucks: Effects on highways and highway safety. Special Report 211. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
【70】 Tsai, M. C. (1998). Delay and risk at automatic level crossing in Britain. Journal of Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol.39, pp.492-498.
【71】 Tsai, M. C., & Su, C. C. (2002). Scenario analysis on freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan. Posted at the 81th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
【72】 Walton, D. (1999). Examining the self-enhancement bias: professional truck drivers’ perceptions of speed, safety, skill and consideration. Transportation Research Part F, Vol.2, pp.91-113.