臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於現代醫療水準提升，公共衛生的大幅改善，人口老齡化的問題正逐漸浮現，不論是富國或窮國，六十五歲以上人口占總人口的比例預計到2025年將擴增一倍，上述現象背後不僅隱含退休潮即將成為現代社會中一種明顯而且重要的現象，也意味著巨額的社會資源將被移轉作為老年人之退休福利，因此，為因應龐大老年人口之安養問題與維持政府之預算平衡，各國社會安全制度自十九世紀以來已先後出現革命性的轉變。本文建立一封閉經濟體系之累代模型，探討退休、預期壽命、人口及社會安全等因素對整體經濟的消費、投資與平均每人國民所得之影響，發現影響經濟成長的主要因素為家計單位消費儲蓄行為、人口結構以及勞動供給的轉變。經由對模型均衡條件式的比較靜態分析，本文得到以下結論：預期壽命延長有助於經濟成長，而人口成長與延長法定退休年齡則不利於經濟成長。並且，在完全資本市場假設下，完全提存社會安全制度對經濟成長之效果為零，隨收隨付制度對經濟成長之效果為負。唯值得注意的是，若資本市場不完全，本文亦發現雖然傳統李嘉圖均等定理無法成立，完全提存制度對經濟成長的影響為正。

第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 8
第三章 基本模型 18
第四章 社會安全制度 30
第五章 借貸限制 39
第六章 結論 46
附錄一 49
參考文獻 50

表目錄
表一 官方估什之各國老年年金占國民所得之比例 5
表二 退休金制度改革 7
表三 投資比率、成長率與預期壽命 12

圖目錄
圖一 台灣地區各年齡組人口數占人口總數百分比 2
圖二 工資成長率動態圖 26

「經濟日報」2005年5月26日—世銀：全球將爆退休金危機。
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