臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

論文提要內容：
甘迺迪政府在1961年4月17日，執行由中央情報一手策劃的豬灣行動，企圖以秘密行動的方式顛覆當時的古巴執政者卡斯楚。原以為如反掌之易的行動卻在72小時之內被卡斯楚軍隊制服。美國不但無法隱藏企圖干預古巴內政的事實，
結果更將古巴推向共產陣營的懷抱。
作者以艾里遜所提出的「理性、組織、官僚」三個外交決策模式作為理論架構，來檢視與探討甘迺迪政府中，決策者間的互動與決議發動豬灣戰爭的決策經過。作者發現不管是總統、國務院、軍方或是中情局，皆認為除去卡斯楚是一致的目標，但對於方式與時機則是彼此的衝突點所在。儘管在外交決策理論的架構上，決策的產出是參與部門間彼此角力的結果，但在豬灣事件中，甘迺迪總統個人的喜好與領導風格對計畫的拍板定案有絕對的影響。甘迺迪認為，國務院的外交策略太過費時、軍方希望以美軍公開入侵的政治代價太高，至於綜理協調各部門，以提供總統政策建議的國家安全會議，卻因甘迺迪個人的領導風格而不受重視。至於中情局所提出的豬灣行動，在甘迺迪選擇相信其既「安靜、秘密」又可以達到顛覆卡斯楚的假設下執行，也因此為失敗埋下伏筆。
豬灣行動在美國的外交史上頗具代表性，其結果不僅帶給甘迺迪本身，也帶給美國政府決策上的醒思與影響。

On April 17th, 1961, John Kennedy’s government launched a secret operation at the Bay of Pigs, planned by the CIA and executed by the Cuban exiles, in the attempt to overthrow Cuban President Fidel Castro. Hoping to waltz into Cuba unchallenged, the invasion troops instead were overwhelmed by Castro’s forces immediately within 72 hours. The failure of the Bay of Pigs not only revealed U.S. involvement in the invasion, it also tightened Castro’s ties to the Soviet Union.
By applying Graham G. Allison’s three foreign policy decision-making models, this thesis examines the interaction between the main decision- makers, the decision -making process as well as the considerations of the Kennedy administration. The decision-makers involved acted on the consensus that Castro had to be removed, but disagreed over timing and measures. This thesis discovered that although the production of a foreign policy involves different organizations and participants, President Kennedy’s personal bias and leadership style played key roles in shaping the decision to invade Cuba, and caused him to dismiss both the State Department ‘s time-taking solution and the Defense Department’s open invasion plan, as well as ignore the National Security Council, which was designed to offer streamlined advice to the President. His request for a quiet, covert operation to bring down Castro and his personal relationship with the leadership of the highly-prestigious CIA helped the Bay of Pigs invasion plan to win over the case.
The Bay of Pigs invasion remains the classic example of what can happen when a president, led primarily by personal conviction, ignores the warning signals and proceeds with a disastrous foreign policy.

論文目錄
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究目的………………………………………………………1
第二節 相關文獻討論…………………………………………………4
第三節 研究方法、範圍與限制…………………………………… 9
第四節 小結……………………………………………………………12
第二章 理論與假設………………………………………………… 13
第一節 理性行為者模式………………………………………………13
第二節 組織行為模式……………………………………………… 16
第三節 官僚模式…………………………………………………… 21
第四節 小結……………………………………………………………27
第三章 從理性模式看甘迺迪政府對豬灣行動的決策………………29
第一節 冷戰對甘迺迪決定執行豬灣行動的影響………………… 30
第二節 甘迺迪總統的性格與反共決心…………………………… 33
第三節 甘迺迪政府的理性決策…………………………………… 37
第四節 小結………………………………………………………… 40
第四章 從組織模式看甘迺迪政府豬灣行動的決策過程………………42
第一節 國務院的外交攻略……………………………………………42
第二節 軍方版的全面進攻方案與撒手不管…………………………45
第三節 中央情報局的秘密行動………………………………………50
第四節 小結……………………………………………………………60
第五章 從官僚模式看豬灣事件的決策……………………………… 62
第一節 主要決策參與者……………………………………………….62
第二節 中情局首長掌握行動管道…………………………………….68
第三節 官員在官僚模式中的妥協與屈服…………………………….75
第四節 官僚模式在豬灣事件上的問題…………………………… 80
第五節 小結……………………………………………………………..83
第六章 結論……………………………………………………………….84
附錄一 決策模式與假設一覽表………………………………………….89
附錄二 古巴與豬灣行動戰場…………………………………………….90
附錄三 古巴計畫的基地與目標……………………………………… 91
參考書目…………………………………………………………………… 92

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