臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以旗山溪流域為研究區域，進行強降雨山崩因子之探討，以2009年莫拉克颱風事件為案例，分析之基本方法為以地理資訊系統(GIS)為工具，建立全區的所有相關參數之資料庫後，進行各因子之崩壞比計算，再將各因子正規化最後以羅吉斯迴歸法進行分析，分析結果與桃芝及海棠颱風事件進行比較。本研究選擇之山崩因子主要可分為四大項，分別為：(1)地質因子-岩性，(2)地形因子-坡?、坡向、地形粗糙度、碎形維度指標及切向曲率，(3)水文因子-地形指數，(4)環境因子-與溪溝距離、累積雨量及最大24小時累積雨量。
羅吉斯迴歸分析結果中，岩性、高程、碎形維度指標、地形指數、與溪溝距離、累積雨量及最大24小時累積雨量共七項因子達到顯著水準Sig.小於0.05，表示此七項自變數為預測機率值之重要項，整體而言，莫拉克颱風事件之整體準確率72.4%。但本研究發現只考慮岩性、高程、地形指數及累積雨量因子之結果，其山崩整體準確率為71.1%，但不考慮此四項因子之結果，其山崩整體準確率為63.2%，與非強降雨事件之線性山崩子因子有差異，因此證明岩性、高程、地形指數及累積雨量與高強度降雨引發之山崩有密切之相關性，可做為強降雨之山崩因子。

To understand the effecting factors of landslide induced by heavy rainfall in Taiwan, the disaster associate with typhoon Morakot (2009) at river basin of the Chishan River is chosen as study area. GIS is the fundamental tool in analysis this data set, while completed database of all the required factors then compute the proportion of landslide for each factor. All the outcomes are normalized before carried out the Logistic regression to reveals its associate value of weighting, thus compare to the events of typhoon Toraji and Haitang. There are four major categories of landslide inducing factors considered within this study: (1) factor of geology – denoted by lithology, (2) factor of terrain – denoted by elevation, slope, aspect, terrain roughness, fractal dimension and the tangential curvature, (3) factor of hydraulic – shown by topographic index and (4) factor of environment – represented by distance to gully, rainfall and maximum 24 hours accumulated rainfall.
Study result shows the factors of lithology, elevation, fractal dimension, topographic index, distance to gully, rainfall and also maximum 24 hours accumulated rainfall act as very important role of inducing landslide for this particular event with remarkable standard of statistic (Sig. ＜ 0.05). This finding suggests that these seven independent factors are the most important one in predicting the occurrence of landslide for similar circumstance. The overall accuracy of perdition for landslide caused by typhoon Morakot by these factors is about 72.4%; while considering only lithology, elevation, topographic and rainfall only the accuracy rate still remain around 71.1%. When took out these four factors from computation, then the accuracy rate decreased to 63.2%. Thus the reason, it is concluded that these four factors are the most important key ones in related to heavy rain fall induced landslide at Southern Taiwan.

摘要 ......................................Ⅰ
摘要 ......................................Ⅱ
誌謝 ......................................Ⅲ
目錄 ......................................Ⅳ
圖目錄 ......................................Ⅶ
表目錄 ......................................Ⅹ
第一章 緒論 .... .........................1
1.1前言 ..............................1
1.2研究動機與目的 ......................2
1.3研究流程 ......................3
第二章 文獻回顧 ..............................6
2.1 山崩定義、發生機制及分類 ..............6
2.1.1山崩定義 ......................6
2.2.2山崩發生機制 ..............6
2.1.3山崩分類 ......................7
2.2 山崩引致因子 ......................11
2.3 山崩研究方法 ......................18
2.3.1定性法 ......................18
2.3.2定量法 ..............................19
2.3.3定性法與定?法的優? ..............22
第三章 研究方法 ..............................24
3.1羅吉斯迴歸方法 ......................24
3.2線性迴歸模型 ......................25
3.3羅吉斯迴歸模型 ......................26
第四章 研究資料 ..............................28
4.1研究區域概述 ......................28
4.1.1地理、地形及水系概述 ......................28
4.1.2地質概述 ......................29
4.2研究資料來源 ......................34
4.2.1數值地形資料 ..............................34
4.2.2數值地質圖 ......................35
4.2.3雨量資料 ......................35
4.2.4崩塌地資料 ......................35
4.3山崩因子 ..............................36
4.3.1岩性 ......................36
4.3.2高程 ......................38
4.3.3坡度 ......................38
4.3.4坡向 ......................39
4.3.5地形粗糙度 ..............................40
4.3.6碎形維度指標 ..............41
4.3.7切向曲率 ......................42
4.3.8地形指數 ......................43
4.3.9與溪溝距離 ......................44
4.3.10累積雨量及最大24小時累積雨量 ..............48
4.4事件概述 ..............................53
4.4.1莫拉克颱風 ......................53
4.4.2桃芝颱風 ......................54
4.4.3海棠颱風 ......................56
第五章 分析結果與討論 ......................59
5.1山崩因子與崩壞比 ......................59
5.1.1颱風事件之崩壞比分析結果 ......59
5.2羅吉斯迴歸 -分類誤差矩陣 ..............85
5.2.1颱風事件分析結果 ..............88
5.3綜合討論 ......................96
第六章 結論與建議 ..............................98
6.1結論 ..............................98
6.2建議 ..............................99
參考文獻 ......................................100

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