臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

國際貿易因貿易便捷及全球化趨勢，對物流績效要求提高，我國是小型經濟體，對外貿易依存度高，物流績效相對重要。物流績效影響國內生產總值，可促進國際貿易成長。
本研究採用物流績效、經國際商港與我國往來貿易夥伴之國際貿易額、國內生產總值及人口數，建立重力模式，運用相關分析、階層及多層次迴歸分析，瞭解物流績效對國際貿易影響；物流績效指數可評量貿易便捷之程度，進一步探討物流績效中，通關效率、基礎設施、國際運輸、物流能力、貨運追蹤與及時性等構面對我國貿易之影響。
研究結果為國際貿易主要受國內生產總值影響，物流績效為輔助因素，與國際貿易為正向相關。國際物流績效六構面中，通關效率及基礎設施與臺灣貿易額呈現顯著正向影響。亞洲主要國家排名中，我國於2016年落後新加坡、日本、香港、中國大陸及南韓，排名最後；2018年通關效率領先中國大陸及南韓，然而落後於新加坡、日本及香港；基礎設施則排名最後。物流績效是外商投資決策的重要因素，有助於吸引外商直接投資，提升國內生產總值成長，促進國際貿易。
關鍵字：物流績效、國際貿易、國內生產總值、多層次迴歸分析

The trend of trade facilitation and globalization results in higher requirements of logistics performance for the international trade. Taiwan is a small economy with high trade dependence. Therefore, the logistics performance is much more important. The logistics performance contributes to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which leads to promote the international trade.
This thesis adopts the logistics performance, the international trade amount of those countries transport goods via the international commercial ports of Taiwan, GDP, and population. To establish the gravity model, through the correlation analysis, Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Multi-level Regression Analysis; exploring the influence of logistics performance on international trade. Logistics Performance Index (LPI) is the measurement of trade facilitation. Furthermore, to explore the influence of LPI, Customs, Infrastructure, International Shipments, Logistics Quality and Competence, Tracking & Tracing and Timeliness in Taiwan respectively.
The international trade is mainly affected by GDP. LPI is the auxiliary factor. Moreover, within six components of LPI, trade is impacted by Customs and Infrastructure significantly positive. Among the major Asian countries, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, China and South Korea, Taiwan ranking is the last one in 2016. In 2018, Customs is ahead of China and South Korea only; Taiwan ranking is the last one in Infrastructure. Logistics performance is an important factor in foreign investment decision-making, which attracts foreign direct investment. Consequently, to increase GDP growth, and promote international trade.
Keyword: LPI, Trade, GDP, Multi-level Regression Analysis

目錄
中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章、緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 8
1.3研究範圍與對象 8
1.4研究內容及流程 8
第二章、文獻回顧 11
2.1物流績效指數概述 11
2.1.1物流績效指數 12
2.1.2物流績效指數問卷 15
2.2國際貿易與國內生產總值關係之探討 16
2.3物流績效與國內生產總值關係之探討 20
2.4物流績效與國際貿易關係之探討 21
2.5階層及多層次分析迴歸模式 28
2.6小結 30
第三章、研究方法 32
3.1 研究架構 32
3.2資料蒐集 36
3.2.1物流績效指數資料 36
3.2.2樣本選擇 41
3.2.3變數與資料來源說明 42
3.3分析方法 42
3.3.1相關分析 42
3.3.2迴歸分析 43
第四章、資料分析與結果 46
4.1樣本特性分析 46
4.1.1敘述性統計表 46
4.2.2各指數各期變動分析 48
4.3相關分析 54
4.4 迴歸分析 58
4.4.1一般線性迴歸分析 58
4.4.2多層次分析迴歸模式 63
4.5假說驗證與意涵 78
第五章、研究結論與建議 81
5.1 結論 81
5.2 建議 84
參考文獻 86

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