臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

2005年至2008年間因國際石油價格持續上漲，促使各個國家積極尋找替代方案以維持一國正常運作及解決對能源需求迫切問題。為了減少對石油進口之仰賴，具有再生性（Renewable）及碳中性（Carbon Neutral）特質的生質能源頓時成為各國政府爭相支持投入發展的熱門產業。
本研究主要研究目的乃探討棕櫚油價格與原油價格是否存在交互影響關係，以及《京都議定書》執行前後和馬來西亞國內能源政策的訂定與執行是否會對此二變數關係造成顯著改變。所採用資料為馬來西亞國際棕櫚油CIF Rotterdam價格及Tapis 國際原油馬來西亞FOB價格，資料長度分別為1982年4月13日至2010年12月22日及1986年12月1日至2010年12月22日，研究期間為1986年12月1日至2010年12月22日。
本研究將價格資料依據政策執行期間分成六個樣本並以Johansen共整合檢定進行估計，其中樣本三、樣本六，檢定結果皆顯著拒絕不存在任何一組共整合秩之虛無假設。實證結果發現，馬來西亞國內能源政策之執行與頒布，相對於《京都議定書》(國際政策)的強制執行，更加強了棕櫚油價格與Tapis原油價格間的關係聯結；因此，建議將棕櫚油針對生質能源與食品加工此二市場需求做出一明顯的劃分，以減輕棕櫚油價格受到原油價格變動所帶來的影響。

World Oil Prices rose during year 2005 to 2008, force the Global to search for alternative with the aim to avoid shortage of energy. For the purpose of reducing the rely on importing crude oil, most of the countries have plan and decide to invest or expand the renewable industry, especially biofuel with characteristics of renewable and carbon neutral will help in reduce GHGs.
The objectives of this study were to investigate and clarify if formation and execution of energy policies will affect the relationship between palm oil and crude oil prices. Data used in this study are International Malaysia Crude Palm Oil prices with the term of CIF Rotterdam, data observation start from date 1982.4.13 to 2010.12.22 and Malaysia Tapis Crude Oil prices with the term of FOB Malaysia, data observation start from date 1986.12.1 to 2010.12.22. To facilitate the progress of Cointegration test, the investigation of relation between palm oil prices and crude oil prices will be start from date 1986.12.1 to 2010.12.22.
This study had divided the full range sample (1986.12.1~2010.12.22) into six, according to the execution of Malaysian’s energy policies and the execution of “Kyoto Protocol”. We use Johansen’s Cointegration test in these samples, results show that there were significant reject the null hypothesis of rank equal to zero, means that there were at least one group of Cointegration vector in sample No.3 (2001.1.1~2010.12.22) and sample No.6 (2007.1.1~2010.12.22), with the explanation of the 2006 Malaysian’s energy policies execution had strengthen the link between these two commodities prices. To prevent palm oil prices variation seriously affected by crude oil prices, we suggest the Malaysian Government to set a new price range for different markets, and complete the market segmentation, since the empirical results show that the crude oil prices were positive and significantly affect the palm oil price.

目次
摘要……………………………………………………………………………… I
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………… II
目次 …………………………………………………………………………… IV
表目次 ………………………………………………………………………… V
圖目次 ………………………………………………………………………… VI
第一章 緒論 …………………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 ………………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究步驟與架構 ………………………………………………… 2
第二章 研究背景 ……………………………………………………………… 4
第一節 能源政策發生背景 ……………………………………………… 4
第二節 棕櫚油價格在馬來西亞的重要性 ……………………………… 11
第三節 生質燃料、能源作物與原油之間的關係………………………… 15
第三章 文獻回顧 ……………………………………………………………… 20
第一節 原油與能源作物關係 …………………………………………… 20
第二節 價格資訊傳遞效率 ……………………………………………… 23
第三節 彙總與小結 ……………………………………………………… 29
第四章 理論基礎與研究方法 ………………………………………………… 31
第一節 蛛網理論與自我迴歸模型 ……………………………………… 31
第二節 單根檢定 ………………………………………………………… 36
第三節 共整合檢定 ……………………………………………………… 38
第四節 實證模型 ………………………………………………………… 40
第五章 實證結果分析 ………………………………………………………… 44
第一節 變數與樣本說明 ………………………………………………… 44
第二節 估計檢定與實證結果分析 ……………………………………… 46
第六章 結論與建議 …………………………………………………………… 63
第一節 結論 ……………………………………………………………… 63
第二節 建議 ……………………………………………………………… 64
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………… 65

參考文獻

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三、相關網站
1.Social Science Research Network, SSRN, http://www.ssrn.com/
2.世界銀行組織, World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/
3.石油主要輸出國組織，OPEC（Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries）, http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/
4.馬來西亞油棕局, http://www.mpob.gov.my/
5.馬來西亞政府官網, http://www.malaysia.gov.my/
6.馬來西亞農業局, http://www.moa.gov.my/
7.美國能源資訊管理局, http://www.eia.doe.gov/
8.國際能源組織, http://www.iea.org/
9.智庫百科，MBA，http://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/MBA
10.維基百科，Wikipedia, http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/