臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

失效模式與影響分析(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, FMEA)為一種風險評估的技術，被廣泛運用於各種領域。通常FMEA將三種風險因子:發生率(Occurrence, O)、嚴重性(Severity, S)、檢測率(Detection, D)進行風險優先級數(Risk Priority Number, RPN)的計算，並根據RPN值進行失效模式的排序。然而，諸多學者認為傳統的FMEA包含許多缺點，例如:並未考慮三個風險因子O、S、D之間的相對重要程度、相同的RPN值可能有不同的結果等。本研究提出一套新型的風險評估模型結合多準則決策(Multiple Criteria Decision Making, MCDM)與FMEA，目的是要改善傳統FMEA所包含的諸多缺點，並以工具機作為實際案例證明模型的可靠度以及準確性。首先透過專家評估歸納出影響工具機的失效模式，並使用灰色理論(Grey theory)彙整專家意見。傳統的FMEA風險因子所考慮的情況有限，因此本研究新增預期成本(Expected Cost, E)以及環境影響(Environmental Impact, G)兩風險因子，以反映實際情況。為了改善傳統FMEA風險因子權重相同的問題，透過最好最差法(Best-Worst Method, BWM)計算各風險因子的權重，最後以複雜比例評估基於灰區間法(Complex proportional assessment with the method of gray interval numbers, COPRAS-G)進行失效模式的排序，提供決策者參考的依據，預防意外的發生，本研究並發展一應用軟體，使本決策模型更具實用性。

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a risk assessment technique that is widely used in various fields. Usually, FMEA uses three risk factors to calculate the Risk Priority Number (RPN), which are Occurrence (O), Severity (S), and Detection (D). The ranking of the failure modes is according to the RPN values. However, many scholars believe that the traditional FMEA contains many shortcomings, such as neglect the relative importance of the three risk factors O, S, D, or different scores of risk factors produce the same RPN value. This study proposes a new risk assessment model that combines Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) with FMEA to remedy the shortcomings of traditional FMEA. In order to prove the reliability and accuracy of the model, this study used a CNC machine tool as a practical case. First, the failure modes affecting the machine tool are surveyed from experts, and the expert’s opinions are summarized by the Grey theory. The traditional FMEA risk factors do not consider the budget and environmental problems. Therefore, this study added two risk factors: expected cost (E) and environmental impact (G) to reflect the actual situation. To fix the problem of the same risk factor weight in the traditional FMEA, the weight of each risk factor is calculated by the Best-Worst Method (BWM) in this study. Then, the rank of failure modes is calculated by the complex proportional assessment with the method of gray interval numbers (COPRAS-G), which provides the basis for decision makers to prevent accidents. Furthermore, this study provides a web-based system to help decision makers to analyze the failure modes and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

目　錄

摘　要 i
ABSTRACT iii
誌謝 v
目　錄 vi
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究方法 3
1.4 研究流程 5
第二章 文獻探討 7
2.1 風險管理 (Risk Management) 7
2.1.1 風險的定義 8
2.1.2 風險管理程序 8
2.1.3 風險管理辨識與評估方法 10
2.2 失效模式與影響分析 (FMEA) 13
2.2.1 傳統的FMEA 14
2.2.2 傳統FMEA的缺點 16
2.2.3 FMEA的運用 18
2.3 灰色理論(Grey theory) 21
第三章 研究方法 23
3.1 關鍵因子評估選擇 23
3.1.1 發生率 (Chance of failure, O) 23
3.1.2 嚴重性 (Severity of failures, S) 24
3.1.3 檢測率 (Non-detection of failures, D) 25
3.1.4 預期成本 (Expected cost, E) 26
3.1.5 環境影響 (Environmental protection, G) 27
3.2 最好最差法 (Best-Worst Method, BWM) 27
3.3 複雜比例評估基於灰區間法(COPRAS-G Method) 31
第四章 實證分析 34
4.1個案敘述 34
4.2 Grey BWM 36
4.3 績效問卷統整 41
4.4 COPRAS-G 43
第五章 結果討論 47
5.1 風險因子的重要性 47
5.2 失效模式的排序 48
5.3 網頁系統操作及結果 48
5.4 模型比較 51
5.5 敏感度分析 52
第六章 結論與未來建議 54
6.1 結論 54
6.2 未來研究建議 55
參考文獻 56
附錄A 問卷 69
附錄B 績效問卷統整 80
附錄C 網頁HTML程式碼 84

 表目錄

表2-1 風險評估常見方法 (本研究整理) 12
表2-2 RPN指數對應的語譯變數 15
表2-3 FMEA的缺點彙整 17
表2-4 FMEA中風險評估方法的分類 19
表2-4 FMEA中風險評估方法分(續) 20
表2-5 FMEA結合MCDM在國內外各領域之應用文章 20
表3-1 發生率評級分數 24
表3-2 嚴重性評級分數 25
表3-3 檢測率評級分數 26
表3-4 預期成本評級分數 26
表3-5 環境影響評分準則 27
表3-8 abw對應之最大化z值（Consistency Index, C.I.） 30
表4-1工具機失效模式與定義 35
表4-2 成對比較語意變數表 37
表4-3 最好準則與其他準則之成對比較向量 37
表4-4其他準則與最差準則之成對比較向量 38
表4-5 BO向量與OW向量之灰區間值 39
表4-6 風險因子之區間權重 41
表4-7 失效模式於發生率(O)之績效 42
表4-8 決策矩陣 44
表4-9 決策矩陣正規化 45
表4-10 失效模式之 、 、 值與排名 46
表A1 成對比較語意變數範例 57
表A2 智慧型手機產品故障評估因子問卷範例 (BO vector) 58
表A3 智慧型手機產品故障評估因子問卷範例 (OW vector) 58
表A5 工具機的BWM問卷 (BO vector) 60
表A6 工具機的BWM問卷 (OW vector) 60
表A7 工具機失效模式與定義 61
表A8 風險因子評估發生機率 (Occurrence) 問卷 62
表A9 風險因子評估嚴重性 (Severity) 問卷 63
表A10 風險因子評估可檢測性 (Detection) 問卷 64
表A11 風險因子評估預期成本 (Expected cost) 問卷 65
表A12 風險因子評估對環境的影響 (Environmental protection) 問卷 66
表B1 失效模式於嚴重性(S)之績效 67
表B2 失效模式於檢測率(D)之績效 68
表B3 失效模式於預期成本(E)之績效 69
表B4 失效模式於環境影響(G)之績效 70

 

圖目錄

圖1-1 研究流程圖 6
圖2-1 風險管理步驟 10
圖5-1 方法選擇介面 50
圖5-2 權重問卷介面 50
圖5-3 績效問卷介面(以發生機率性為例) 50
圖5-4 排序結果介面 51
圖5-4 傳統FMEA與其他MCDM模型之比較 51
圖5-5 敏感度分析結果 52

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