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A study of the relationship between total value of import/export air cargo and macroeconomic indicators: Taiwan vs. the East Asia area
Student : Chang, Che-Wei Advisor : Dr.Chu,Hsing-Chung
Graduate Institute of Marketing and Logistics/Transportation National Chiayi University
Abstract
To airlines, accurate prediction of international air cargo is vital. The Gravity Model has been widely applied to analyze all kinds of cross-border flow as well as cargo exchange among different cities or areas. Furthermore, the GARCH Model was employed in this study for data analysis.The current study compared the Macroeconomics and total value of air cargo trading of Taiwan with those of nine countries in the East Asia area, including Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Hong Kong. Data between January 2006 and December 2014 were collected.
The Gravity Model and the GARCH Model were adopted to construct analysis of total import and export value of air cargo and relevant factors, including distance, number of flights, Gross National Income (GNI), Economic Growth Rate (EGR), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and population. The results of the two models were compared to identify significant variables that affected total cargo value. The results revealed that GNI, population, EGR, distance and number of flights between two countries significantly affected the total air cargo value. Furthermore, accuracy of prediction differed with features of country, import, and export, thus highlighting the inclusion of such variables in the process of prediction.
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