臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

半導體產業包含三種主要的營運模式，整合元件製造(Integrated Device Manufacturer, IDM)、無晶圓廠(fabless)及晶圓代工(foundry)。整合元件製造公司提供設計與製造服務，無晶圓廠公司的服務聚焦於IC設計服務，晶圓代工公司則提供專業製造代工服務。在產業的競合發展下，無晶圓廠公司與晶圓代工公司形成fabless-foundry策略聯盟的產業鏈垂直分工(Vertically-Separated)合作模式，並與屬於垂直整合(Vertically-Integrated)模式的IDM而形成競爭狀態。由2000-2014市場營收，fabless與foundry成長率大於IDM，且市場生態也產生大的改變。本研究針對半導體產業競合關係進行分析，包含不同營運模式之間的競合關係、成長能量、受市場變動影響以及長期衡點點分析。分析方法採用了Hodrick-Prescott filter，濾除原始營收數據中的循環波動訊號，取得成長趨勢訊號，然後應用Lotka-Volterra模型來分析這些產業營運模式之間的競合關係。結果顯示，無晶圓廠模式和晶圓代工模式彼此間具有共生關係，而IDM模式與fabless-foundry模式彼此之間則存在完全競爭關係。產業鏈垂直整合與垂直分工模式雖然處於競爭狀態，但從長期來看二種模式將會共存於市場，並具備(54.6％, 45.4％)的市場占有率的均衡點。

Three major business models are found in the semiconductor industry, namely Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDMs), fabless, and foundry models. By semiconductor supply chain, IDM is the vertically-integrated model which designs and manufactures IC products. The strategic alliance of fabless and foundry companies is the vertically-separated or fabless–foundry model. Recently, the revenue growth rate of the vertically-separated model has been considerably higher than that of vertically-integrated model. One interesting question raises is whether the vertically-separated model will ultimately dominate the semiconductor industry or grow only to a certain extent. To investigate this, we adopted the Hodrick–Prescott filter to remove the cyclic signal from original revenue data and then applied the Lotka–Volterra model to analyze the competition and cooperation relationships between pairs of these business models. The results reveal that the fabless and foundry models have a mutualistic relationship, whereas IDM competes with both the fabless and foundry models. The vertically-integrated and vertically-separated model compete, but their revenues should ultimately arrive at an equilibrium point. In the long term, the vertically-integrated and vertically-separated models should coexist; the ultimate market share of the vertically-integrated model is predicted to be approximately 54.6% and that of the vertically-separated model approximately 45.4%.

中文摘要 ii
Abstract iii
誌謝 v
目錄 vi
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 半導體產業競爭演變及焦點問題 4
1.3 研究目的 7
1.4 論文架構介紹 10
第二章 文獻探討 11
2.1 半導體產業發展趨勢相關文獻 11
2.1.1 半導體產業的競合關係 11
2.1.2 Fabless-foundry策略合作創造的優勢 13
2.2 Lotka-Volterra 模型應用於商業競爭分析的有關文獻 14
2.2.1 Lotka-Volterra 模型應用於產業競爭分析的研究 14
2.2.2 Lotka-Volterra 模型應用於技術競爭分析的研究 16
2.2.3 Lotka-Volterra 模型應用於產品競爭分析的研究 17
2.3 輸入資料對 Lotka-Volterra 模型的干擾影響問題 19
第三章 研究方法 21
3.1研究流程 21
3.2 Hodrick-Prescott filter 23
3.3 Lotka-Volterra 模型 24
3.4 長期均衡點分析 27
第四章 實驗研究 29
4.1 資料選用與實驗規劃 29
4.2 成長趨勢資料濾出 30
4.3 Lotka–Volterra 模型參數推估及適用性分析 33
4.4 競爭關係及成長能量分析 36
4.4.1 競爭關係分析 36
4.4.2 成長能量分析 38
4.5 供應鏈整合模式風險與均衡狀態分析 41
4.5.1 供應鏈整合模式的相對風險程度 41
4.5.2 供應鏈整合模式長期均衡狀態分析 43
第五章 結論與未來研究方向 46
5.1 結論 46
5.2 未來研究方向 48
參考文獻 49
英文文獻 49
中文文獻 53

英文文獻
Chatterjee, A., Gudmundsson, D., Nurani, R.K., Seshadri, S., and Shanthikumar, J.G., Fabless-foundry partnership: Models and analysis of coordination issues, IEEE transactions on semiconductor manufacturing, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 44–52, 1999.
Cheng, F.T., Chen, Y.L., and Chang, J.Y.C., Engineering chain: A novel semiconductor engineering collaboration model, IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 394–407, 2012.
Chiang, S.Y., An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan’s transition from 200 mm to 300 mm silicon wafers, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 79, no. 2, pp. 383–392, 2012.
Chiang, S.Y. and Wong, G.G., Competitive diffusion of personal computer shipments in Taiwan, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 78, no. 3, pp. 526–535, 2011.
Chou, C.M., How does manufacturing service perceived value influence customer satisfaction? An investigation of global semiconductor industry, International Journal of Production Research, vol. 52, no. 17, pp.5041-5054, 2014.
Chu, P.Y. and Chen, W.C., Open business models: A case study of System-on-a-Chip (SoC) design foundry in the integrated circuit (IC) industry, African Journal of Business Management, vol. 5, no. 21, pp. 8536-8544, 2011.
Hodrick, R.J. and Prescott, E.C., Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 29, no. 1,pp. 1–16, 1997.
Hsiao, H.C., Wen, H.C., and Nakano, M., A Nonlinear Growth Analysis of Integrated Device Manufacturers’ Evolution to the Nanotechnology Manufacturing Outsourcing, International Journal of Engineering and Technology Innovation, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 150-162, 2012.
Hung, H.C., Chiu, Y.C., Huang, H.C., and Wu, M.C., An enhanced application of Lotka–Volterra model to forecast the sales of two competing retail formats, Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 109, pp. 325–334, 2017.
Hung, H.C., Chiu, Y.C., and Wu, M.C., Analysis of Competition Between IDM and Fabless–Foundry Business Models in the Semiconductor Industry, IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, Accepted, 2017.
Hung, H.C., Chiu, Y.C., and Wu, M.C., A Modified Lotka–Volterra Model for Diffusion and Substitution of Multigeneration DRAM Processing Technologies, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017: doi:10.1155/2017/3038203.
Hung, H.C., Tsai, Y.S., and Wu, M.C., A modified Lotka–Volterra model for competition forecasting in Taiwan's retail industry, Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 77, pp. 70–79, 2014.
IC Insights, Billion Dollar Capex Club” Forecast to Swell to 15 Companies in 2017, (2017). Available at: http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/billion-dollar-capex-club-forecast-to-swell-to-15-companies-in-2017/.
IC Insights, Five Top-20 Semiconductor Suppliers to Show Double-Digit Gains in 2016, (2016). Available at: http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/Five-Top20-Semiconductor-Suppliers-To-Show-DoubleDigit-Gains-In-2016-/.

Kinnunen, T., Sahlman, K., and Harkonen, J., Business Ecosystem Perspective to New Product Development, International Journal of Business Development and Research, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 6-22, 2013.
Kreng, V.B. and Wang, H.T., The interaction of the market competition between LCD TV and PDP TV, Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 1210–1217, 2009.
Ku, K.C., Gurumurthy, C.K., and Kao, H.P., Inter-firms collaboration of joint venture in IC foundry business, Technovation, vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 296–305, 2007.
Lakka, S., Michalakelis, C., Varoutas, D., and Martakos, D., Competitive dynamics in the operating systems market: Modeling and policy implications, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 88–105, 2013.
Lee, S., Kim, M.S., and Park, Y., ICT Co-evolutionand Korean ICT strategy—An analysis based on patent data, Telecommunications Policy, vol. 33, pp. 253–271, 2009.
Lee, S.J., Lee, D.J., and Oh, H.S., Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka–Volterra model, Technological Forecasting& Social Change, vol. 8, no. 72, pp. 1044–1057, 2005.
Lin, Y.T., Lin, C.L., Yu, H.C., and Tzeng, G.H., A novel hybrid MCDM approach for outsourcing vendor selection: A case study for a semiconductor company in Taiwan, Expert systems with applications, vol. 37, no. 7, pp. 4796–4804, 2010.
Lotka, A.J., Elements of physical biology, Baltimore: Williams and Wilkins, 1925.
Marasco, A., Picucci, A., and Romano, A., Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 15, pp. 49–62, 2016.
Oxford Economics, Enabling the Hyperconnected Age: The role of semiconductors, (2013). Available at: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/enabling-the-hyperconnected-age-the-role-of-semiconductors.
Ravn, M.O. and Uhlig, H., On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 84, no. 2, pp. 371–380, 2002.
Sarma, S. and Sun. S.L., The genesis of fabless business model: Institutional entrepreneurs in an adaptive ecosystem, Asia Pacific Journal of Management, vol. 2016, 2016.
Smitalova, K. and Sujan, S., A Mathematical Treatment of Dynamical Models in Biological Science. West Sussex: Ellis Horwood, 1991.
Su, Y.H., Guo, R.S., and Chang, S.C., Virtual fab: an enabling framework and dynamic manufacturing service provision mechanism, Information & Management, vol. 42, pp.329-348, 2005.
Tang Y. and Zhang, J.W., A competition model for two CPU vendors, Physica A, vol. 348, no. 15, pp. 1092–1104, 2005.
Tsai, B.H., Chang, C.J., and Chang, C.H., Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka-Volterra models, Energy, Vol. 100, pp. 416–424, 2016.
Tsai, B.H. and Li, Y., Cluster evolution of IC industry from Taiwan to China, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 76, no 8, pp. 465–480, 2009.
Tseng, F.M., Liu, Y.L., and Wu, H.H., Market penetration among competitive innovation products: The case of the Smartphone Operating System, Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, vol. 32, pp. 40–59, 2014.
Volterra, V., Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically, Nature, vol. 118, no. 2972, pp. 558–560, 1926.
Wang, H.T. and Wang, T.C., Application of the grey Lotka–Volterra model to forecast the diffusion and competition analysis of the TV and smartphone industries, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 106, pp. 37–44, 2016.
Watanabe, C., Kondo, R., and Nagamatsu, A., Policy options for the diffusion orbit of competitive innovations—an application of Lotka–Volterra equations to Japan’s transition from analog to digital TV broadcasting, Technovation, vol. 23, no. 5, pp. 437–445, 2003.
Whittaker, E.T., On a New Method of Graduation, Proceedings of the Edinburgh Mathematical Association, vol. 41, pp. 63–75, 1923.
Wu, L. and Wang, Y., Estimation the parameters of Lotka–Volterra model based on grey direct modelling method and its application, Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 6412–6416, 2011.
Wu, S.Y., Hung, S.C., and Lin, B.W., Agile strategy adaptation in semiconductor wafer foundries: An example from Taiwan, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 73, pp. 436–451, 2006
中文文獻
彭國柱，陳玠偉，「IDM委外趨勢對全球半導體產業版圖變遷研究」，工業經濟研究院產業經濟與趨勢研究中心，2010。