臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，我們對於全球海水面上升的理解有著相當程度進展，相較之下，區域海水面變化卻知之甚少。本研究綜合分析1993–2015台灣周遭海水面變化，並且利用衛星測高與潮位站資料分析北太平洋海水面之季節至年代際變化與趨勢。計算成果顯示，潮位基準偏移與測站地表垂直變動改正對於利用潮位站資料估算海水面變化速率之影響最為顯著，改正影響量平均值分別為7.3 mm/yr與8.0 mm/yr，而海潮與逆氣壓改正影響量相對較小，分別占海水面上升速率的9%和14%。因此，若使用未經基準偏移和地表垂直變動改正的潮位站資料進行台灣周圍海水面變化速率估算，將造成嚴重誤差。估算之測站地表垂直變動顯示，西部地區測站呈現顯著下沉，其中箔子寮、東石和塭港潮位站每年約為24–31 mm下沉量，其原因為西南平原常被抽取大量地下水，導致地表逐漸下陷。由潮位站與衛星測高資料推估臺灣絕對海水面速率相當一致，1993–2015海水面上升速率皆為2.2 mm/yr，明顯低於全球海水面上升速率(3.2 mm/yr)。研究發現，近年來台灣地區海水面上升速率減緩與聖嬰-南方振盪和太平洋十年震盪現象有相關。比較近十年(2003–2012)衛星測高絕對海水面變化、重力反演和氣候實驗重力(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)衛星海水質量、溫鹽比容海水面變化可知，台灣東北海域比容海水面與海洋質量變化對於海水面上升貢獻量相似(分別貢獻約–4.9 mm/yr至–2.2 mm/yr與1.9 mm/yr)，而東南海域之比容海水面與海洋質量變化分別約占海水面上升的62%–74% (8.3–9.9 mm/yr)與14% (1.8 mm/yr); 而台灣西部溫度與鹽度觀測量較為稀少，導致計算之比容海水面精度較差。由此可知，臺灣東南部海水面上升主要是由比容海水面所驅動。
利用1993–2016潮位站和衛星測高資料分析北太平洋海水面之年際間至年代際變化和上升趨勢。以衛星測高估算之西北和東北太平洋絕對海水面上升速率分別為3.3 ± 0.2 mm/yr 和2.3 ± 0.2 mm/yr，與潮位站資料推估之海水面上升速率(3.7 mm/yr 和 2.3 mm/y)非常相似。測高與潮位站資料推估整個北太平洋海水面速率為2.8–3.3 mm/yr，結果約略等於全球平均速率值3.2 mm/yr。當考慮聖嬰現象和太平洋年代際振盪影響時，估算之絕對海水面上升速率在各海域則較為一致(0–5 mm/yr)，速率約為2.9 ± 0.1 mm/yr。此外，以總體經驗模態分解法分析1950–2016潮位站和1993–2016衛星測高資料之季節性變化，其成果顯示，在西太平洋邊緣海域，季節性變化占月平均海水面變化之60％–93％，然而在大部分開放海洋中占不到40％。在西北太平洋邊緣海域、加利福尼亞灣、東太平洋熱帶以及黑潮延伸等區域發現了顯著的年週期振幅，振幅範圍為100–211 mm，而在北太平洋半年週期振幅相對較小。另外，逆氣壓效應和比容海水面對於海水面季節性貢獻量亦被評估，逆氣壓效應在西太平洋沿岸地區(從南海北部到日本海)產生–116–88 mm的年週期振幅，而在其他區域逆氣壓效應影響量相對較低。比容海水面在日本海和黑潮延伸海域年週期振幅非常顯著，最大值為15 cm。自海水面變化中移除比容海水面後，開闊海域海水面年週期振幅顯著下降，但在大陸棚等邊緣海域，剩餘海水面的年周期振幅仍然顯著。大部分邊緣海域和東太平洋赤道海域之剩餘海水面年周期與風力因子高度相關。我們推估風力因子對北太平洋邊緣海域之海水面季節性變化影響相當顯著。

A considerable progress is observed in understanding a global mean sea level rise, but regional sea level variations that deviate from a global average rate remain poorly understood. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of sea level data around Taiwan from 1993 to 2015 and an analysis of seasonal-to-decadal variability and trends of regional sea level in the North Pacific Ocean using satellite altimetry and tide gauges. Results show that datum shifts and vertical land motions in gauge records have significant impacts on sea level trends with respective average contributions of 7.3 and 8.0 mm/yr, whereas ocean tides and inverted barometer effects, which represent 9% and 14% of the observed trend, respectively, have relatively minor impacts. Thus, datum shifts and vertical land motion effects must be removed in the tide gauge records for accurate sea level estimates. The estimated land motions show that the southwestern plain in Taiwan has large subsidence rates. For example, the Boziliao, Dongshi, and Wengang tide gauge stations exhibit a rate of 24–31 mm/yr as a result of groundwater pumping. The absolute sea level trends, which are derived from the tide gauges or satellite altimetry, around Taiwan agree well with each other and both are estimated to be 2.2 mm/yr for 1993–2015. This estimate is significantly lower than the global average sea level rise trend of 3.2 mm/yr from satellite altimeters. We suggest that a recent hiatus in sea level rise in this region exhibits good agreement with the interannual and decadal variabilities associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The results of sea level budget show that steric sea level and ocean mass components contribute to the total absolute sea level in Northeast Taiwan at a similar rate (approximately –4.9 mm/yr to –2.2 mm/yr and 1.9 mm/yr, respectively) but contribute approximately 62%–74% (8.3 mm/yr to 9.9 mm/yr) and 14% (1.8 mm/yr) in Southeast Taiwan, correspondingly. In the western ocean of Taiwan, the temperature and salinity data are lacking; thus, the estimated steric sea level is inaccurate.
Interannual-to-decadal variability and trends of sea level in the North Pacific Ocean are analyzed using tide gauge and satellite altimeter data covering 1993–2016. The absolute sea level trends derived from satellite altimeter data in the Northwest and Northeast Pacific Ocean are estimated to be 3.3 ± 0.2 mm/yr and 2.3 ± 0.2 mm/yr, and the similar rates of absolute sea level rise (of 3.7 mm/yr and 2.3 mm/yr) are observed from all coastal tide gauge records covering the same time span, respectively. Over the entire North Pacific Ocean, the absolute sea level trends are 2.8–3.3 mm/yr from tide gauges and satellite altimetry, which are similar to the global average trend of 3.2 mm/yr. A similar average trend in the sea level of 2.9 ± 0.1 mm/yr is observed when considering the effects of the ENSO and PDO. Moreover, a uniform spatial distribution with a range of 0–5 mm/yr is detected. The seasonal sea level cycles in the North Pacific Ocean are explored using tide gauges in 1950–2016 and satellite altimeter data in 1993–2016 through Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. The seasonal cycle can explain 60%–93% of the sea level variability in the continental shelf of the Western Pacific Ocean while explaining less than 40% of the variance in the open ocean. Significant annual amplitudes are found in the regions of the continental shelf of the Western Pacific Ocean, Gulf of California, eastern tropical Pacific, and Kuroshio Extension, with a range of 100–211 mm. A semi-annual amplitude has a relatively minimal impact on the sea level variation in the North Pacific Ocean. The inverted barometer effect produces −116 mm to 88 mm of annual amplitudes in the Western Pacific coast regions, especially from the north of South China Sea to the Sea of Japan, whereas the annual amplitude in most area of study is lower. The significant annual amplitudes of steric component are found in the Sea of Japan and Kuroshio Extension region, wherein the largest value is 15 cm. The annual amplitude has significantly decreased in the open ocean after removing the steric component from the observed sea level. However, the annual cycle of the residual sea level in the large areas of marginal seas remains strong. Wind forcing is highly correlated with the residual seasonal sea level cycle in most areas of the marginal seas and the eastern tropical Pacific. Therefore, we suggest that wind forcing strongly influences the sea level changes in marginal seas of the North Pacific Ocean.

中文摘要 I
Abstract III
致謝 V
Contents VI
List of Tables IX
List of Figures X
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Global Sea Level Rise from Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges 1
1.2 Causes for Regional Sea Level Changes 5
1.3 Thesis Outline 12
Chapter 2 Sea Level from Tide Gauges and Satellite Altimetry around Taiwan: Data Processing, Analysis and Results 14
2.1 Introduction 14
2.2 Data Sets 17
2.2.1 Tide Gauge Records 17
2.2.2 Satellite Altimetry 19
2.2.3 Climate Indices 20
2.3 Tide Gauge Processing 21
2.3.1 Ocean Tides 21
2.3.2 Atmospheric Pressure Loading 23
2.3.3 Datum Shifts in the Tide Gauge Records 24
2.3.4 Vertical Land Motion Derived from Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data 28
2.3.5 Estimate of Vertical Motion Using Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data by the adjustment 29
2.4 Results and Discussion 32
2.4.1 Impacts of Geophysical and Datum Shift Corrections on Sea Level Trends 32
2.4.2 Vertical Land Motion in Taiwan 34
2.4.3 Mean Sea Level around Taiwan: Trend and Interannual Variability 38
2.5 Chapter Summary 41
Chapter 3 Regional Sea Level Variations around Taiwan Inferred from Satellite Gravimetry, Altimetry, and In-situ Hydrographic Data 43
3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 Data Sets 44
3.2.1 Tide Gauges 44
3.2.2 Satellite Altimetry 48
3.2.3 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment 49
3.2.4 In-situ Hydrographical Data 50
3.3 Methodology 51
3.3.1 Multiple-variable Linear Regression 51
3.3.2 Sea Level Reconstruction Based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions 53
3.4 Sea Level Budget around Taiwan 55
3.5 Inter-annual-to-decadal Variability and Trends of Sea Level Changes around Taiwan 62
3.6 Regional Sea Level Reconstruction around Taiwan 64
3.7 Chapter Summary 66
Chapter 4 Seasonal-to-decadal Variability and Trends of Sea Level in the North Pacific Ocean 67
4.1 Introduction 67
4.2 Data Sets 69
4.3 Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition 75
4.4 Absolute Sea Level Linear Trends and Interannual and Decadal Fingerprints in the North Pacific Ocean 80
4.4.1 Absolute Sea Level Trends from A Six-parameter Regression Analysis 80
4.4.2 Absolute Sea Level Trends from Multiple-variable Linear Regression Analysis 82
4.4.3 Absolute Sea Level Trends from Multiple-variable Linear Regression Analysis with Lag Time Determination 85
4.4.4 Seasonal Sea level Cycle from Observations 87
4.4.4.1 Mean seasonal Sea level Cycle Derived from EEMD 87
4.4.4.2 IB Effect 95
4.4.4.3 Forcing of the Seasonal Cycle from the Steric Height 97
4.4.4.4 Forcing of the Seasonal Cycle from the Wind Stress 103
4.5 Chapter Discussion and Summary 105
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Future Work 108
5.1 Conclusions 108
5.2 Future Work 111
Reference 113

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