臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文使用1999年到2002年的華人家庭動態資料庫(Panel Study of Family
Dynamics, PSFD) 的資料與羅吉特迴歸模型(logit model), 研究受
訪家庭在2000年時的婦女個人特性、家庭結構與所得對於2001年或2002
年之生育決策的影響。迴歸結果顯示:(1) 妻子年齡與妻子教育程度對於家庭
的生育決策有強烈的負向效果; (2) 有生男偏好並且還沒有男孩的家庭其再
生育率顯著高於其他情況的家庭, 並且在2000年時子女個數較少的家庭其
再生育的機率較高; (3) 家庭月收入對再生育率有顯著正向的影響, 表示家
庭經濟狀況及子女養育成本的問題, 亦為影響再生育率的重要因素。

This research uses Chinese Panel Study of Family Dynamics from 1999 to 2002
and logit model to investigate the effects of the female personal characteristics,
the family structure and family income of the interviewed family in 2000 on the
fertility decision of the family in 2001 and 2002. The main empirical findings are
(1) the female age and education level have negative effects on the fertility decision
of the family;(2)the family with preference to boys and the family without boys
have higher fertility probability than others, and the family with less children
also has higher fertility probability; (3) the monthly income of the family has a
positive effect on the fertility probability, i.e., family economic condition and the
cost of raising children are important factors to determine fertility probability.

1 緒論1
2 文獻回顧5
3 資料處理與變數說明9
3.1 華人家庭動態資料庫. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 資料處理與樣本篩選. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.3 變數說明. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 理論模型15
4.1 二項式反應模型(Binary ResponseModels) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.2 最大概似估計(Maximum Likelihood Estimation) . . . . . . . . . . 19
5 迴歸結果20
6 結論26
參考文獻28

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