臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

台灣中央銀行在2001年後持續維持低利率的環境，從總體經濟的角度，這樣的政策是否必要，仍有待釐清。但在個體的角度，不可避免的，持續的低利率政策會造成所得與財富重分配的效果。所以本文試圖分析央行低利率政策所產生的重分配效果,本文發現低利率政策使得各部門間利息收入與支出有相當大的改變。
同時低利率政策提高房地產與股票的價格，因此對家庭的財富分配與福利產生了影響。最後，針對未來的情境進行分析，發現低利率政策的改變與否，對政府與退休基金影響最大。

Central Bank of Taiwan maintained very low interest rate level after 2001.From macroeconomic level, it''s still not clear whether this policy is necessary or not. However, it created distributional effect unavoidably from microeconomic level.
This thesis is dedicated to investigate the distributional effect which was made by central bank''s monetary policy. What this thesis found is that the low interest policy made an influential effect on change of the interest income and expense for different sectors. In addition, it also raised price of some asset classes such as real estate and equity. Thus, the low interest policy may have some impact on welfare and wealth distribution of the households in Taiwan. Finally from analysis of future scenarios, whether low interest policy will be changed or not have a great impact on government and defined benefit pension plan.

1 前言1
2 2001年後台灣的貨幣政策4
3低利率政策產生的利息重分配8
3.1 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
3.2 民營企業. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
3.3 銀行業. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
3.4 保險業. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
3.5 家庭. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
4 低利率政策對資產價格的影響19
4.1 低利率對股票價格的影響. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.2 低利率對房地產價格的影響. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.3資產價格提升對家庭福利的影響. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
5 未來情境分析24
5.1 利率逐步調升. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
5.2 持續低利率政策. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
6 總結與討論27
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