臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

以往國內外相關研究均一致認為，初次公開發行市場存在上市初期蜜月期現象，以及後續長期價格低落的情形。蜜月期現象是指初次公開發行股票在甫上市時，產生一波短期超額報酬的行情。而初次公開發行股票上市後的長期報酬，則是呈現報酬不佳甚至負報酬的現象。其中，上市時蜜月期報酬越高者，其未來的長期價格績效低落的情形越明顯。關於蜜月期報酬以及長期績效低落雖然是世界各國證券市場一種普遍存在的現象，但是關於其最主要的原因卻是眾說紛紜，莫衷一是。
本研以盈餘管理、資訊不對稱、經理人投資決策等構面探討蜜月期現象成因及與後期長期股價報酬間的關係。盈餘管理的部分是以可裁量性應計項目為代理變數，資訊不對稱則是以上市櫃前董監事持股比例及已成立年數作為代表，投資決策則是用資本支出比率來判斷，並運用結構方程模式來驗證各項假說。
本研究以2001至2002年間初次公開發行公司為對象，實證結果發現：當公司上市櫃前有較高的董監事持股比例及資本支出率跟可裁量性應計項目時，會有不錯的蜜月期報酬。而上市前成立年數越高的公司，上市後蜜月期報酬雖然不顯著，但是長期持有報酬的跌幅卻是最小的。

Since before and till now, related researches, no matter domestic or foreign, have unanimously agreed that there is honeymoon period at the initial stage when a company issues shares to the public for the first time and the long-term consequent situation of low share price performance does exist. Honeymoon phenomenon occurs when the shares are just issued to the public market for the first time and has demonstrated a short-term wave of excessive rate of return. However, the long-term yield after the initial shares are sold in the stock market will show undesirable performance, and even negative rate of return will take place. Among the companies, if the rate of return is higher in the honeymoon period when the company starts trading in the stock exchange market, it is more apparent that the future price performance will be low. Although it is a commonly known situation that exists in every country’s stock exchange market in the world, opinions still vary and are unable to decide which one is right pertaining to the primary causes of such situation.

This research adopts three perspectives, namely control of earnings, information inconsistency, manager’s investment decisions, to explore the correlation between causes of honeymoon phenomenon and ensuing long-term rate of return on shares. Control of earnings uses discretionary accruals as substitute variable. Information inconsistency uses shareholders ratio of board of directors and supervisors and years of business as representation. Investment decisions are judged by capital expenditure ratio and utilize Structural Equation Modeling to test validity of each assumption.
This research uses the companies that were first traded on the public stock exchange market in the years of 2001 and 2002 as the objects of study. After testing and verifying, the following findings are resulted: When the shareholder ratio of board of directors and supervisors, capital expenditure, or discretionary accruals is higher prior to be listed on the stock market, the rate of return during honeymoon period will be enticing. Even though the companies with more years of business operation prior to listing in the stock market do not exhibit noticeable rate of return during honeymoon period, however, the tumble on rate of return for the long run is very minimal.

內容目錄
中文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii
英文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv
誌謝辭　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． Vi
內容目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vii
表目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ix
圖目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． x
公式目錄 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． xi
第一章　　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第一節　　研究背景．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1
　　第二節　　研究動機．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3
　　第三節　　研究目的與問題．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 5
　　第四節　　研究流程與論文架構．．．．．．．．．．．． 5
第二章　　文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 8
　　第一節　　新發行股票蜜月期的定義．．．．．．．．．． 8
　　第二節　　影響發行股票蜜月期績效報酬之因素．．．．． 9
　　第三節　　新發行股票的長期報酬．．．．．．．．．．． 20
　　第四節　　資本支出與未來價格報酬的關係．．．．．．． 31
第三章　　研究方法．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 34
　　第一節　　研究範圍及架構．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 34
　　第二節　　研究假說．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 36
　　第三節　　研究變數之操作型定義．．．．．．．．．．． 40
　　第四節　　研究設計．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 45
第四章　　實證結果與分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 54
　　第一節　　敘述性統計分析結果．．．．．．．．．．．． 55
　　第二節　　相關分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 57
　　第三節　　結構方程模式．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 60
第五章　　結論與建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 75
　　第一節　　研究結論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 75
　　第二節　　研究建議．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 81
　　第三節　　研究限制．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 81
參考文獻．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 82

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