臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

水庫之安全，除了影響本身之功能及經濟利益外，同時關係到下游地區人民生命財產之安全，故確保水庫壩體安全極為重要。台灣地區土石壩的使用相當普遍，經由統計顯示，土石壩潰決之原因中，洪水溢頂佔了相當高之比例，其餘則多為地工因素所造成，因此，本文將針對颱風時期水庫洪水溢流問題進行風險探討。
本研究以石門水庫為研究對象，首先利用模糊失誤樹分析，針對水庫溢流問題，進行定性分析。接著選擇失誤樹架構中關於人為操作因子之操作延遲項目，利用一階可靠度分析法、均值一階二級動差法以及蒙地卡羅模擬法做進一步之定量探討，最後並計算系統之整體風險值。結果顯示，一階可靠度分析法確實可改善蒙地卡羅模擬法耗時、精確度不足之缺點，且其於近似破壞點處做泰勒級數展開，是較均值一階二級動差法符合實際情況的分析方法，故能有效地應用在風險分析上。此外，對於石門水庫而言，因操作延遲所導致之溢流風險並不高，此可供水庫管理單位於颱風時期操作之參考；而系統風險分析之結果，則可做為水庫安全評估之參考依據！

The safety of reservoir not only affects its operation functions and huge economic benefit but also affects life well being, and property of people living downstream. Therefore, it is extremely important to enhance the safety of reservoir. In Taiwan, the earth dam is quite general. According to a previous statistical analysis of dam failure【13】, flood overflow is the major reason of earth dam failure. Therefore, we focus on flood overflow issue and intend to assess the risk of earth dam failure during typhoon seasons.
The risk of overflow in the Shih-Men Reservoir during typhoon seasons is investigated as a study case. First, we use the fault-tree analysis to proceed qualitative analysis. Then, the operation delay item in the fault-tree structure is chosen to proceed further quantitative analysis. We contrast the analysis results of the First Order Reliability Analysis Method (FORM), and the Mean-Value First Order Second Moment Method (MFOSM) with results of the Monte Carlo simulation method which is regarded as the accurate probability of overflow. At last, we calculate the system risk by fuzzy fault-tree analysis method. The results show that, the use of FORM for risk analysis not only can save the prolonged simulation time in Monte Carlo method; but also can prevent the inconsistency of MFOSM method. The outcome of this study can serve as a reference for both operation decisions during typhoon seasons and safety evaluation of Shih-Men reservoir.

目 錄…….……………………………………………………..i
表目錄…….……………………………………………………..iii
圖目錄…….……………………………………………………..iv
摘 要…….……………………………………………………..vi
第一章 緒論…….…………………………………………………..1
第二章 文獻與理論回顧…….………………………………………4
2.1系統風險分析方面…….………………………………………..4
2.2單一事件風險分析方面 ………………………………………..5
第三章 系統風險分析…….…………………………………………9
3.1失誤樹分析概念………………………………………………..9
3.2模糊集理論 ……………………………………………………..11
3.2.1模糊數…….…………….………………………………12
3.2.2模糊數運算……………….………………………………13
3.3模糊失誤樹分析 ...……………………………………………..14
3.4模糊重要性指數 ...……………………………………………..16
3.4.1模糊數之排序……….….………………………………16
3.4.2模糊重要性指數………...………………………………18
3.5應用例－土石壩洪水溢流風險探討………..…………………..18
第四章 風險分析理論介紹……….…………………………………23
4.1風險表示法…….…………………………………………………..23
4.2不確定性表示法…….……….……………………………………..26
4.3一階二級動差法 ……………………………………………………..26
4.3.1理論介紹………………….………………………………27
4.3.2均值一階二級動差法………..….………………………28
4.3.3一階可靠度(風險)分析法…..……….…………………29
第五章 風險模式之實例應用……….………………………….....36
5.1研究區域概述…….…………………………………………………36
5.1.1流域概況……………….………………………………36
5.1.2水庫基本資料………………….…………………………36
5.1.3水文站概況…………..……….…………………………39
5.2水庫防洪運用…….……………………………………………….41
5.2.1防洪運轉操作規則..…….………………………………41
5.2.2排洪設施基本資料…………….…………………………49
5.2.3水利法相關規定………….………………………………50
5.3雨量資料之不確定性分析………………………………………….52
5.3.1不確定性之產生……………………………………..52
5.3.2資料處理……………………………………………..52
5.4降雨-逕流分析……………………….…………………………..53
5.5水庫演算…….……………….………………………………….56
5.5.1概述…………….……….……………………..……..56
5.5.2理論說明……..………………………………………..58
5.6風險分析…….……………………………………………………59
5.6.1溢流風險模式建立….….………………….…….. 59
5.6.2系統風險分析方法.…….…………………….…...61
5.7結果與討論…….………………..…………………………………62
5.7.1溢流風險模式分析結果…..…..….…..……..……62
5.7.2系統風險分析結果……………………...……….…83
第六章 結論與建議…….…………………………………………….87
6.1結論…….………..…………..…………….……………………87
6.2建議…….……………………..…………………………….……90
參考文獻………….……………………………………………..92

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