臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文使用主計處1978-2009 年「人力運用調查」個體資料，以年資做為觀察變數，以探討台灣工作的穩定性。首先，我們以短年資、長年資機率的變化，衡量歷年來工作穩定性的趨勢。如果歷年來短年資機率增加、或長年資機率下降，我們將推論台灣勞工的工作日趨不穩定；反之則穩定。計量方法分為兩階段，第一階段採用logit 模型，估計各類組歷年長年資及短年資的機率，並計算年度虛擬變數的邊際效果。第二階段，針對上述年度虛擬變數的邊際效果進行ols 廻歸，扣除景氣因素，求出長年資及短年資機率的時間趨勢。實證結果發現，以年資做為衡量標準時，整體工作是趨於穩定的。特別是私部門及工業在短年資及長年資的分析均呈穩定趨勢。而15-17 歲及服務業由於勞動市場的流動性高，則呈現較不穩定的趨勢。教育程度在大學以上者以往屬於長年資的族群，但近年來平均年資在各組教育程度中為最低，可能由於流動性較高產生的較多短年資者，連帶拉低了平均年資，以致於廻歸分析結果顯示教育程度大學以上對於歷年的工作穩定性則無明顯變化。

This study utilizes micro data from 1978-2009 survey of “Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey,” compiled by the Directorate General Budget, Accounting and Statistics. To define job stability in Taiwan, we adopt the measure of job tenure. First, we present the trends in terms of the probabilities of short-tenure and long-tenure. If the probability of short-tenure increases or the one of long-tenure decreases, we conclude that job stability in Taiwan is becoming unstable. The empirical analysis is processed in two steps. At the first step, we adopt logit model to estimate each group's probabilities of shortand long- tenure, and then calculate the annual marginal effects. At the second step, the predicted annual marginal effects are regressed on a linear time trend and annual unemployment rate; the latter is included to control business cycle effects. The results of the study are summarized as follows. As a whole, there is a negative trend in short tenures and a corresponding positive trend in long tenures. That indicates the job stability has increased in terms of job tenure, especially for the private sector and industry sector. While the tendency for the group of 15-17 years old or the one of service sector is the opposite. For people with education beyond college degree, there is no significant change in trend of job stability.

圖 目 錄 II
表 目 錄 III
摘 要 IV
Abstract V
第一章 前 言 1
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 文獻模型使用 5
第二節 文獻回顧 6
第三章 實證資料敘述統計 9
第一節 資料來源及樣本選取 9
第二節 樣本統計量 9
第三節 由平均年資觀察 13
第四節 由短、長年資比率觀察 18
第四章 實證模型設定與實證結果. 29
第一節 模型設定 29
第二節 變數說明 30
第三節 實證結果與分析 33
第五章 結論與建議 47
參考文獻 49
附錄：98 年人力運用調查問卷 52

一、中文部分
1. 李誠 (2007)，「高保障、低彈性的台灣勞動市場：法律的幻象」，台灣經濟論衡， 5(9)，頁70-89，行政院經建會。
2. 李誠 (2010)，「人力資本與就業」，遠東60 週年白皮書，頁373-431。
3. 涂嘉隆 (2010)，「勞退新制對勞動流動率影響之研究」，碩士論文，南華大學管理經濟學研究所。
4. 曹省一 (1992)，「台灣勞工年資期間之研究」，碩士論文，中國文化大學經濟學研究所。
5. 許汶鍈、楊嘉琳、邱淑美 (2008)，「勞退新制實施對勞動供給之影響」，主計月刊， 629，頁59-67。
6. 黃于玲、苗坤齡、張一穗 (2008)，「勞退新制實施對勞動需求之影響」，主計月刊， 629，頁68-77。
7. 劉克智、董安琪 (2001)，「台灣勞動市場與失業問題」，自由中國之工業， 91(4)，頁1-40。
8. 蘇世忠 (2006)，「勞退新制度對勞工工作報酬與流動率影響之研究」，醒吾學報，第三十二期，頁79-98。
9. 潘寧馨、林玉樹、陳嘉鴻、洪毓霞 (2010)，「我國製造業傳統產業變遷之研究」，行政院主計處研究報告，行政院主計處。

二、英文部分

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