臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究試以臺灣成年人作為研究對象，就行政院衛生署國民健康局「成人吸菸行為調查」問卷原始資料，擷取可能影響成年人吸菸行為決策之因素，並透過多元邏輯斯迴歸模型進行實證研究，加以分析成年人在菸價調漲後有吸菸、曾經吸菸及從未吸菸等行為之影響因素。
菸品健康福利捐調漲後結果顯示，男性吸菸比率明顯降低，但女性吸菸比率卻大幅提高；菸價調漲對男性的香菸消費量有顯著的影響，但對女性吸菸率影響不大。年齡愈大其吸菸機率愈高，已婚者較單身者的吸菸率有下降趨勢，菸品健康福利捐調漲對青壯年吸菸行為有顯著的改變，有婚姻者為顧及家人的感受及受到菸價調漲影響而有戒菸行為的動力，因此吸菸率會下降。家庭收入低者其有吸菸的機率明顯提高，沒有工作會造成家庭收入減少，在面對壓力上可能會透過吸菸方式來調解。在工作場所實行菸害防制管制，吸菸者反而有提高的現象，主要因大家對菸害防制法的認知尚有不足，員工會勸阻在禁菸場所吸菸同仁的比率也不高，菸品健康福利捐的課徵對癮君子不一定能減少吸菸，必須藉由禁菸宣導來加強員工共識，才能確實建立無菸害的工作場所。
此外，本研究嘗試用迴歸分析方法探討菸品健康福利捐開徵對臺灣成年人吸菸人數的影響。實證結果顯示，開徵菸品健康福利捐前，失業率與平均每戶所得總額變數皆呈現正號，失業率及所得愈高者，則吸菸人口愈多；開徵菸品健康福利捐後，失業率及平均每戶所得總額變數同時呈現負號，失業人口愈多，則吸菸人口就愈少，失業會造成所得減少，菸價調漲對吸菸人口會增加支出負擔，在所得考量下能促使吸菸者減少吸菸甚至戒菸，提高菸稅有助於降低香菸消費量。

This study treated adults in Taiwan as subjects, and acquired the possible factors of decision making of adults’ smoking behavior according to original questionnaires of “Investigation on adults’ smoking behavior” by the Bureau of Health Promotion. Empirical study was conducted by multinomial logistic regression model to analyze factors of adults’ behaviors of “smoking”, “have smoked” and “have never smoked” after the increase of prices of cigarettes.
After the increase of Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge, the male smoking rate has decreased significantly, but female smoking rate has increased significantly. The increase in the cigarette prices has a significant effect on male cigarette consumption; however, it does not have a significant effect on female smoking rate. The chance of smoking increases with age. Compared to the unmarried population, the smoking rate of the married population decreases. The increase of Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge has a significant effect on teenagers’ smoking behaviors, married individuals may be more motive to quit smoking due to concern for the health of their families and the increased cigarette prices, thus resulting in a lower smoking rate. The chance of smoking of those with low family income significantly increases because they may relieve their pressure of unemployment and decrease in family income by smoking. The implementation of tobacco control in workplaces leads to the increase in the number of smokers instead. The main reason is that people have not fully understood the Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act, only a very few of the employees will dissuade their colleagues from smoking in non-smoking places, the Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge levied on smokers may not necessarily lead to the decrease in smoking rate, when the consensus of employees is strengthened through non-smoking advocacy can smoke-free workplaces be truly established.
In addition, this study probed into the effect of levy of Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge on the number of adults who smoke in Taiwan by regression analysis. According to empirical results, before levy of Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge, in Taiwan, unemployment rate and average total incomes of household are positive. When unemployment rate and incomes are higher, the number of smokers is higher. After levy of Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge, unemployment rate and average total income of household are negative. When there are more unemployed, the number of smokers will be lower. Unemployment results in reduction of incomes. Increase of prices of cigarettes increases the smokers’ expenditures. With the concern of incomes, smokers will avoid smoking and even quit smoking. Increase of Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge helps to lower the consumption of cigarettes.

目錄
中文摘要………………………………………………………………………………. i
英文摘要………………………………………………………………………………. ii
誌謝……………………………………………………………………………………. iv
目錄……………………………………………………………………………………. v
表目錄…………………………………………………………………………………. vi
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………… vii
壹、 緒論………………………………………………………………………………. 1
一、 研究背景與動機……………………………………………………………. 1
二、研究目的……………………………………………………………………. 6
三、研究流程架構………………………………………………………………. 8
貳、文獻回顧…………………………………………………………………………. 9
參、研究方法………………………………………………………………………… 22
肆、實證分析………………………………………………………………………… 29
一、調漲菸品健康福利捐之影響……………………………………………… 29
（一）資料來源…………………………………………………………….29
（二）變數選取…………………………………………………………….30
（三）樣本描述性統計…………………………………………………….34
（四）交叉分析…………………………………………………………….40
（五）多元邏輯斯迴歸分析……………………………………………….50
二、開徵菸品健康福利捐之影響……………………………………………….59
（一）開徵菸品健康福利捐之變革……………………………………….59
（二）資料來源…………………………………………………………….59
（三）迴歸分析模式之參數估計及各項檢定…………………………….60
（四）迴歸結果說明……………………………………………………….65
伍、結論與建議……………………………………………………………………… 67
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………….71
附錄：2005年及2006年「成人吸菸行為調查」問卷..............................................79

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二、報告
李蘭、陳秀熙、潘怜燕，1999，“民國八十八年臺灣地區成人及青少年之吸菸率及吸菸行為調查：菸害防制法實施一年後之初評”，行政院衛生署。
行政院衛生署，1990，臺灣地區菸害防制五年計畫。
行政院衛生署，2005，臺灣地區2005年衛生指標白皮書。
行政院衛生署，2005，衛生統計動向2004。
行政院衛生署國民健康局，2005、2007，臺灣菸害防制年報。
行政院衛生署國民健康局，2010、2011成人吸菸行為調查。
行政院衛生署國民健康局，2009、2010青少年吸菸行為調查。
行政院衛生署國民健康局，2010，全國職場健康促進暨菸害防制調查。
行政院衛生署國民健康局，2011，癌症及心血管疾病與吸菸、二手菸、飲酒、嚼檳榔之關係調查計畫。
三、書籍
陳順宇，2005，多變量分析，四版，華泰文化事業股份有限公司，臺北市。
陳順宇，2009，迴歸分析，四版，華泰文化事業股份有限公司，臺北市。
黃嵩立，2001，吸菸對幼兒及青少年肺功能發育與呼吸道疾病之影響，初版，國家衛生研究院，臺北市。
賴美淑，2000，吸菸之行為研究，初版，國家衛生研究院論壇，臺北市。
Neter, J., 1997，應用線性迴歸模型，劉應興編譯，初版，華泰文化事業股份有限公司，臺北市。
Subhash, S., 1996, Applied Multivariate Techniques, John Wiley &; Sons, Inc, Canada.
Varian, Hal R., 1992, Microeconomic Analysis, Norton, New York.
四、學位論文
陳麗如，2009，菸品健康福利捐對目前吸菸者之戒菸想法及吸菸行為變化之影響探討-以臺北市萬華區為例，臺北醫學大學，碩士論文。
賴文龍，1996，吸菸風險對吸菸行為及願付價值之研究－臺灣成年男性之實證研究，國立臺灣大學，碩士論文。
羅暐翔，2009，國中學生發展性資產與吸菸意向及吸菸行為之相關研究，國立臺灣師範大學，碩士論文。