臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來，高科技產業面臨激烈的競爭，一方面希望可以穩定市場占有率，一方面又希望可以擺脫仰賴歐美及日本國家技術來源的窘境，由於企業的資源有限，所以必須在資本及技術投資策略中選擇一個最適決策。
本研究採用系統動態學為模型建構的基礎，藉由系統動態學特性如高階複雜、回饋、非線性、環環相扣、滯延等等特性，真實呈現出系統之行為，提供有效模擬和分析複雜動態系統的工具。觀察系統之行為特徵，並使用因果回饋圖來釐清系統中元素的交互作用，在這樣因果下必須推測隱藏於問題背後之因果回饋環路，充分了解元素間彼此影響性後，將其轉換為數學模型。
本研究主要目的：
1. 分析廠商之資本投資及技術開發從投入資源到反應於企業績效之過程，以及要素間的因果回饋關係。
2. 透過個案資料，考量晶圓代工廠的特性與資料建構驗證本研究所提方法的正確性。
3. 結合系統動態學，建構「資本與技術投資策略模式」，驗證過去七年之發展及模擬未來廠商之策略趨勢。
4. 在考慮競爭者的情況下，分析市占率及利潤的表現。
5. 進行供需情境分析，利用資本及技術投資策略作為本模型的控制變數，藉由分析資料找出最適決策，以提供管理者應變之措施與管控之準則。
最後結果發現:
1. 重外購策略在短期內對企業之利潤之提升有較佳的影響;但長期下研發與外購並重或重研發策略會表現得較好。
2. 二企業相互競爭的情況下，若明顯有一領導者，另一為追隨者時，其技術投資策略有所不同。
3. 依不同的企業績效的指標下(利潤及市占率)，其技術投資策略有所不同。

For the past years, high-tech industry has faced high competition. The enterprises in the industry have to increase market share and accumulate technology capability at the same time. Because of limited resources, the enterprises are supposed to make optimal decisions for capital and technology Investment strategy.
This research uses the system dynamic method to construct the model, system dynamics has a unique characteristic of complex, feedback, nonlinear, linked together and delay, really presents behavior of the system, provides the effective simulation and the analysis complex dynamic system tool. Observe the behavior characteristics of systems , and the use of causal feedback to clarify the interaction of elements in the system, for example if Capacity utilization is up then Unit Cost will down, however Capacity utilization too high will cause on-time delivery down then loss the orders. Then extrapolated the causal feedback loop hidden behind the problem, after fully understood between the element each other influence, will be converted to a mathematical model.
This research main purpose is as follows:
1. To analyze the technology development and the capital investment model of the firm and build the causal feedback loops with key variables.
2. By the above casual feedback loops, to combined with system dynamic method and build「Capital and Technology Investment Strategy model」 to simulate the strategy of the enterprises for the past seven years and the future.
3. To take into consideration the competitor's situation, to analyze the enterprises’ performance (including market share and profit).

The conclusions of this research are:
1. In the short time, the purchasing- strategy has the best business performance. But in the long time, the R&D- strategy has the best business performance.
2. There are two firms in the industry. One is a leader firm; the other is a follower firm. It is different strategy between them.
3. Under different enterprise performance, the firms will make different strategy.

Keywords: Wafer Fabrication, System Dynamics, Capital Investment, Technology Investment

目錄
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
誌謝 III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 1
1.3 研究流程與架構 2
1.4 研究範圍與假設 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1半導體產業現況簡介 5
2.1.1半導體產業特性 5
2.2資本投資與技術投資 6
2.2.1資本投資 7
2.2.2技術投資 8
2.3系統動態學之相關文獻 10
2.3.1系統動態學（System Dynamics）簡介 10
2.3.2系統動態學模型 11
系統動態學中包含了三種的變數： 11
2.3.3 模型測試 12
2.3.4系統動態學之特性 13
2.3.5系統動態學相關研究 14
2.3.6 I-think軟體相關資料 16
2.4 賽局理論基本介紹 16
2.4.1 賽局理論的產生 16
2.4.2 賽局的分類 17
2.4.3 賽局的均衡 19
第三章 研究方法 20
3.1研究架構 21
3.1.1技術發展經費 21
3.1.2技術能力 21
3.1.3產能需求管理 22
3.1.4企業績效 22
3.2研究對象及資料蒐集 23
3.3研究工具 23
3.4因果回饋圖 24
第四章 模型建構 25
4.1技術發展經費因果回饋環路 26
4.2技術能力因果回饋環路 27
4.3需求管理因果回饋環路 30
4.4企業績效因果回饋環路 31
第五章 系統實作與結果分析 34
5.1 個案資料 34
5.1.1基本模型模擬結果 37
5.2基本策略分析 43
5.2.1價格方面 43
5.2.2產能方面 44
5.2.3專利權方面 44
5.2.4技術能力方面 45
5.3情境模擬分析 46
5.3.1 需求擴張 46
5.3.2 需求波動 51
5.3.3 需求萎縮 55
第六章 結論與建議 59
6.1 研究總結 59
6.2 後續研究建議 61
參考文獻 62

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