臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於臺灣消費型態隨經濟持續發展，旅客對休閒旅遊產業的需求已不可或缺，行政院提出新興產業發展策略，期望臺灣成為東亞觀光交通轉運中心及國際觀光重要的旅遊目的地。臺灣四面環海，對外旅遊交通尤其仰賴航空，自2008年兩岸開放直航三通之後，旅遊地點的選擇更為便捷且多元化，航空運輸業的競爭與成長策略也成為臺灣航空公司審慎思考的議題。根據觀光局統計資料顯示，2011年台灣機場進出旅客總人數達4,139萬人次，平均每日11.3萬人次，較2010年成長4.9%；兩岸航線旅客716萬人次，較2010增加22.9%，在各航線中成長最多。航空運輸業具有高度沉沒資本、產出不具儲存性的特質，本研究藉由績效評估的角度，探討航空運輸業在面對全球氣候與經濟的波動變化時，如何有效控制成本、運輸班次，避免浪費內部營運工具，以達能源有效利用、節能減碳，運用差額變數模式(Slacks-Based Measure, SBM) 找出其營運績效最大改善空間，運用配置效率模式(Allocation Efficiency Model ) 尋求最適當的資源配置調整。探討航空運輸業在成本效率、行銷效能與執行效能等三構面的營運績效，並與以指數平滑法(Exponential Smoothing Method)預測下一年度乘客人數回饋績效模式，以利航空運輸業在面臨環境變化致使需求變化時，能提供其足夠的資源最適配置資訊。

Taiwan's consumption pattern has followed sustained economic development, passengers demand has been an integral part for leisure and tourism industry. The Executive Yuan proposed new industry development strategy for Taiwan, in order to become an important tourist destination for East Asian tourist traffic transit center. Taiwan is surrounded by the oceans, foreign tourism traffic in particular all rely on aviation. Since the opening up of cross-strait direct links form 2008, tourist destination choosing become more convenient and diverse, the competition and growth strategies of the air transport industry have become careful consideration for Taiwan airlines. According to Tourism Bureau statistics show in 2011, the total number of visitors amounted to 4,139 million tourists in Taiwan airport, also, the average of daily passengers would be 113,000. This is representing a growth of 49 percent over the year 2010. The strait routes visitors are already 7.16 million passengers which representing the increase of 22.9 % than 2010. The various routes growing, the air transport industry has a high degree to the sinking capital, and the output has no store characteristics. Therefore, this research is by the performance evaluation point of view, to discuss facing of fluctuations in global climate and economic change for transport industry, how they effectively control costs, transportation schedules to avoid waste of internal operational tools to achieve energy use efficiency also carbon reduction. This research applied the slack - (Slacks-Based Measure, SBM) to find out the biggest room for improvement in its operating performance, also, applied the allocation efficiency model (Allocation Efficiency Model) to seek the most appropriate resources configuration adjustments. In order to investigate the air transport industry performances of production efficiency, marketing efficiency and transmission efficiency, the exponential smoothing method is applied to facilitate the air transport industry in the face of environment change resulting in changes in demand which can provide sufficient resources to the optimum configuration information.

摘要 ................................................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... ii
誌謝辭 ................................................................................................................................. iii
目錄 ................................................................................................................................. iv
表目錄 .................................................................................................................................. v
圖目錄 ................................................................................................................................. vi
第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................................. 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 ............................................................................................. 1
第二節 研究目的 ......................................................................................................... 2
第三節 研究流程 ......................................................................................................... 2
第二章 文獻回顧 ......................................................................................................... 5
第一節 運輸業特性 ..................................................................................................... 5
第二節 台灣航空營運概況 ......................................................................................... 7
第三節 多準則決策分析法(MCDM) .......................................................................... 8
第四節 預測方法 ....................................................................................................... 13
第三章 模式構建與研究方法 ................................................................................... 17
第一節 模式構建 ....................................................................................................... 17
第二節 研究方法 ....................................................................................................... 19
第四章 實證分析 ....................................................................................................... 25
第一節 2009年至2011年各航線之經營績效 ........................................................ 25
第二節 需求預測 ....................................................................................................... 36
第三節 預測回饋分析 ............................................................................................... 39
第五章 結論與建議 ................................................................................................... 48
第一節 結論 ............................................................................................................... 48
第二節 建議 ............................................................................................................... 49
參考文獻 ............................................................................................................................. 51

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