臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文研究三代不同的汽車預警碰撞安全系統(Pre-Collision System, PCS)對自用汽車事故發生與否與事故損失金額的影響。研究是採用豐田在RAV4台灣中部地區從2018年3月至2021年3月間的新車銷售與事故車車體損失估計資料。其中新車銷售資料有14,008個樣本；事故車有1,842個樣本。分別以羅吉斯迴歸模型(Logistic Regression Model)與線性模型(Linear Model)來分析上述兩種影響。羅吉斯迴歸研究結果顯示，擁有第三代與第二代的PCS的汽車都較第一代的汽車有顯著較低的事故機率。若排除乙式車體險不明事故的樣本，擁有第三代與第二代的PCS的汽車也都較第一代的汽車有顯著較低的事故機率，而且第三代較第二代也有顯著較低的事故機率。此顯示，越現代的PCS效果越好。若不排除乙式車體險不明事故的樣本，投保乙式車體險者較丙式車體險的事故發生機率高。而線性模型研究結果顯示，不同代的PCS汽車安全配備對事故損失金額並沒有顯著不同的影響。整體而言，新型的PCS有降低事故損失的效果。因此，在車體險的保費定價，PCS是值得列入考慮的重要風險因素。

關鍵詞：汽車安全配備、預碰撞安全系統、汽車事故頻率、汽車事故嚴重性
 

This thesis studies how different generations of Pre-Collision System (PCS1, PCS2 and PCS3) affect private car accident frequency and severity. Data are the new Toyota RAV4 sale information and estimated damage costs of accidents between March 2018 and March 2021 from Toyota exclusive agents in Central Taiwan area. The new sale samples are 14,008 and the accident car samples are 1,836. Logistic regression models linear models are used to analyzes the accident frequency and severity, respectively. The results show that the cars with PCS2 and PCS3 have significant low accident frequency than that of PCS1. If not including unknown accident samples due to the Type B physical damage insurance, we could get the additional results that the cars with PCS3 have significant low accident frequency than that of PCS2. This indicates more advanced PCS has more effectiveness. The severity analysis results that different generations of PCS do not have significantly different impacts on the severity. Totally, these imply that advanced PCS could reduce car accident losses and be considered in the car insurance pricing factors.
Keywords: Car Safety Features, Pre-Collision System, Car Accident Frequency, Car Accident Severity

目　　錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機及背景 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究架構與流程圖 4
第二章 安全配備、汽車保險與文獻回顧 6
第一節 汽車安全配備 6
第二節 汽車保險介紹 9
第三節 文獻回顧 11
第三章 資料與研究方法 13
第一節 資料來源 13
第二節 研究方法 21
第四章 迴歸分析與實證結果 24
第五章 結論與建議 27
第一節 結論 27
第二節 建議 28
參考文獻 30

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