臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究探討經濟政策不確定性對外國直接投資的影響。本研究採用的經濟政策不確定性指數是Ahir et al.(2018)所建立之各國世界不確定指數(WUI)，而樣本資料為49國之2000年至2018年的追蹤資料，並以一般動差估計法(GMM)與分量迴歸進行係數之估計。本研究得到以下結果：第一、，GMM估計結果顯示， 不論是已開發國家或開發中國家，經濟政策不確定性(WUI)皆會正向影響FDI。第二、根據GMM的估計結果，WUI與貿易開放交乘項對於FDI之影響效果，此效果在已開發國家為負，但於開發中國家為正。第三、分量迴歸估計結果顯示，開發中國家WUI對FDI之影響效果，其僅當FDI於0.25低分量與0.9高分量時為顯著，而0.25分量時此效果為正但在0.9分量則為負，WUI與貿易開放交乘項同樣地也是在0.25低分與0.9高分量為顯著，但其於兩分量的正負效果恰好相反；已開發國家只有當FDI於0.9高分量時，WUI與貿易開放交乘項對於FDI影響效果才顯著，而此效果為負。

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment (FDI). The sample is panel data covering 46 countries over the period 2000-2018, and world uncertainty index (WUI) of Ahir et al.(2018) is applied as the index of economic policy uncertainty for each country. Using generalized method of moments (GMM) and quantile regression to estimate the coefficients, the empirical results are summarized as the followings: First, no matter in the developed or developing countries, the results of GMM show WUI will cause positive effect on FDI. Second, the results of GMM display that the interaction of WUI and trade openness will positively affect FDI in the developed countries but negatively impact FDI in the developing countries. Third, based on the results of quantile regression, in the developing countries, the effect of WUI on FDI is only significant at the 0.25 and 0.9 quantile, and it is positive at the 0.25 quantile but negative at the 0.9 quantile. The interaction of WUI and trade openness is also significant at the two quantiles but presents the opposite effect. In the developed countries, the interaction of WUI and trade openness on FDI can significantly and negatively affect FDI only at the 0.9 quantile.

目錄
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
表目錄 IV
圖目錄 V
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機及目的 1
第二節 研究架構與流程 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 外國直接投資影響之相關文獻 4
第二節 經濟政策不確定性與國外直接投資關連性之相關文獻 6
第三章 研究方法 9
第一節 實證模型 9
第二節 一般動差法 10
第三節 分量迴歸法 11
第四章 實證結果 12
第一節 實證資料 12
第二節　敘述統計量分析 14
第三節 一般動差法之估計結果 18
第四節 分量迴歸之估計結果 22
第五章 結論 31
參考文獻 33


表目錄
表4-1樣本國家 12
表4-2 變數定義及資料來源 13
表4-3敘述統計估計結果 17
表4-4一般動差法(GMM)之估計結果 21
表4-5模型一之分量迴歸估計結果 25
表4-6模型二之分量迴歸估計結果 30

圖目錄
圖1-1研究流程圖 3

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