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研究生:蕭琇文
研究生(外文):HSIAO,HSIU-WEN
論文名稱:東南亞投資養殖蝦可行性評估之研究
論文名稱(外文):Investment Feasibility Study of Shrimp Aquaculture in Southeast Asia
指導教授:劉仁銘劉仁銘引用關係
口試委員:潘志弘、黃琮琪
口試日期:2021-06-29
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄科技大學
系所名稱:漁業生產與管理系
學門:農業科學學門
學類:漁業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2021
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:110
中文關鍵詞:蝦產業投資
外文關鍵詞:東南亞
DOI:sunsky33669911@gmail.com
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養殖環境改變讓產業外移嚴重,包括養殖環境的改變、勞動力缺乏、水質污染、致使經營成本提高,加上外在環境國外廉價土地與勞動力的競爭優勢,許多業者都紛紛出走東南亞,剛開始尤其是中國為首選,由於生活習慣、文化語言相近,又有低廉勞工與廣大而低價的土地承租可利用,使得中國成為台商產業外移對象。因而蝦養殖產業的外移與未來中國蝦養殖產品反傾銷至台灣,仍然是蝦養殖是否能永續經營的一大困境,本研究針對台灣蝦產業外移提出建言。
1. 蝦產業先期草蝦發生病變打擊台灣蝦產業,台灣學者1996年引自厄瓜多爾白蝦苗,引進試養的南美白蝦penaeus vannamei,1997年起改為Litopenaeus vannamei,白蝦能養出好成績在大陸已逐漸推廣育苗及大蝦場的許多業者都在密切注意白蝦繁養殖動態,引進種蝦繁殖反應良好,此蝦成活率較高,飼料節省養殖週期短,白蝦能活蝦上市,肉質也可以,白蝦可賣到高價。中國是1999年台商引入福建開始養殖。分析台灣白蝦養殖的成本收益,直接成本中最重要的依次為飼料費、勞動成本(主要為工資)、水電費與種苗費。以2020年分別為30.0 %、25.1 %、14.1 % 及7.9 %。各年的成本結構隨著種苗、飼料價格的變動而異,飼料費與水電費隨著養殖密度逐年增加其成本比重亦隨著提高。
2. 臺灣白蝦由厄瓜多爾引進培育,草蝦種蝦由東南亞進口,斑節蝦在沿海海域捕撈。中國;白蝦由台灣引進培育大正蝦,天然捕撈(70%),人工培育(30%),草蝦東南亞進口。養殖方式;台灣以集約式養殖為主,但長期受病毒困擾也改混養。為減少池底汙染及病害,多採分段式養殖。近年來發展虱目魚、蝦、貝類、烏魚混養。台灣加工設備與技術均相當現代化,但近年來受環境惡化衝擊,一部分赴東南亞和大陸投資,原料供應不足,一部分開發冷凍調理食品。外銷價格;台灣15.01美元/公斤(以日本冷凍蝦零批市場2019~2020年平均價格)。中國外銷價格是14.86美元/公斤。
3. 南美洲厄瓜多爾隨著全球對蝦養殖的暴漲,到90年代全球產量已經穩定在200萬噸左右,並且還在以25%的高速增長。海蝦是蝦類養殖的主要選擇,主要包括三個品種:亞洲草蝦P. monodon(占比75%);日本對蝦 P.chinensis以及南美白對蝦 P.vannamei。隨後南美白對蝦養殖產量逐年增加,2021年已經成為全球最大的蝦類養殖產品,占80%以上。從南美洲原生到如今亞洲美洲國家的大量養殖,南美白對蝦憑藉耐養和極大的消費需求已經成為全球最大的對蝦養殖品種。蝦種:白蝦,蝦池面積:1.0公頃,放養密度:50尾/平方公尺,養殖天數:120天,最後體型:15公克,總收成量:7公噸(公頃),活存率:85%,飼料轉換係數:1.35:1,使用益生菌使用量:1200公斤,使用益生菌使用成本:US$1,500,單位生產成本:US$ 2.1/公斤,總利潤:US$13,000(US$13,000/公頃)。
4. 東南亞主要養殖國家養殖蝦產業得分依權重,養殖環境將考量到政府之相關政策、養殖地理環境、週邊設施發展、發展潛力等因數。其中蝦苗供應(占比10%)、飼料供應(占比10%)、經營團隊及專業能力(占比20%)、天然地理環境(占比10%)、週邊基礎建設(加工廠等)(占比15%)、政府政策(檢疫、獎懲等)(占比5%)、競爭優勢(占比10%)、東南亞銷售通路(占比10%)等。依權重積分設5分,印尼(總得分3.55)、泰國(總得分4.45)、越南(總得分4.50)、菲律賓(總得分4.00)、馬來西亞(總得分3.60)、汶萊(總得分3.20)、柬埔寨(總得分3.10)、緬甸(總得分2.60)、中國(總得分3.40)。依積分排序印尼(排名5)、泰國(排名2)、越南(排名1)、菲律賓(排名3)、馬來西亞(排名4)、汶萊(排名8)、柬埔寨(排名9)、緬甸(排名10)、中國(排名6)。依投資區為越南為首選,其次為泰國、菲律賓等。
5. 越南為首選本研究針對越南主要養蝦三個區域進行成本比較,越南檳椥市、越南牙莊市、越南金甄市進行養殖成本分析,蝦種同樣養白蝦蝦池面積:0.33公頃,放養密度(尾/m2):越南檳椥市122尾/m2、越南牙莊市167尾/m2、越南金甄市167尾/m2,養殖天數:越南檳椥市130天、越南牙莊市106天、越南金甄市120天,最後體型:13.7公克,總收成量(公斤):越南檳椥市23,700公斤、越南牙莊市5,000公斤、越南金甄市21,000公斤,越南檳椥市活存率99.5%、越南牙莊市活存率84.7%、越南金甄市活存率90.6%,越南檳椥市飼料轉換係數:1.26:1,越南牙莊市飼料轉換係數:1.27:1,越南金甄市飼料轉換係數:1.12:1,使用益生菌使用量:120公斤,越南檳椥市每公斤生產成本130元:越南牙莊市每公斤生產成本106元:越南金甄市每公斤生產成本120元。越南檳椥市投資報酬率83.4%:越南牙莊市投資報酬率73.4%:越南金甄市投資報酬率83.7%:越南檳椥市每尾蝦苗收益(4.54元):越南牙莊市每尾蝦苗收益(2.88元):越南金甄市每尾蝦苗收益(4.81元)。2020年的南美白蝦養殖過程依地區又有很大的差異,養殖戶要隨時修正環境因素適時調整操作模式,若以純海水養殖南美白蝦模式,在越南可以分二個月收成要50尾/公斤,三個月要30尾/公斤及四個月要20尾/公斤,尾數越大價格越好,但相對風險就大。
6. 2020年東南亞白蝦國際行情價格,目前台灣蝦價還是東南亞國家中最貴的,其因近幾年育成率不高也是主因,加上內需市場強勁需求,台灣每公斤平均價格8.23美元,其次中國每公斤平均價格7.73美元,越南每公斤平均價格5.24美元,泰國每公斤平均價格4.69美元,馬來西亞每公斤平均價格4.81美元,印尼每公斤平均價格4.12美元,菲律賓每公斤平均價格4.56美元,價格最便宜應該是印度與中美洲厄瓜多爾,印度每公斤平均價格3.62美元,厄瓜多爾每公斤平均價格3.65美元。
7. 東南亞地區養殖蝦類影響成功與否因素相當複雜,總體環境加以評估包括蝦種來源、自然環境、天然種蝦、政治局勢與蝦苗、法律制度、政府的外資政策、基礎建設、土地利用、勞工供應、勞工效率、養蝦技術、週邊產業、水質汙染與病害、養殖密度、飼料供應、加工技術、企業壟斷、環保要求、幣值穩定、外匯管制、行政效率、治安情況、融資條件等等,每單項積分5分,總積分115分滿分。印尼總積分(79分)、泰國總積分(98分)、菲律賓總積分(82分)、越南總積分(108分)、馬來西亞總積分(97分)、緬甸總積分(70分)、汶萊總積分(82分)、印度總積分(74分)、柬埔寨總積分(75分)、中國總積分(93分)。

ABSTRACT
The changes in the breeding environment have caused serious relocation of industries, including the deterioration of the environment, water pollution , increased operating costs, and strong competition pressure from abroad. Many businesses have Southeast Asia, especially Mainland China. Due to similar living habits and cultural languages, In addition, low-cost labor and vast and low-cost land are available, making mainland China the primary target for Taiwanese businesses to move abroad. Such migration of the aquaculture industry and anti-dumping of aquaculture products from mainland China in the future are a major concern for the sustainable operation of Taiwan's aquaculture. This study proposes suggestions for the migration of Taiwan's shrimp industry.
1. In the early stage of the shrimp industry, the disease of grass shrimp hit the shrimp industry in Taiwan. Taiwan scholars cited Ecuadorian white shrimp seedlings in 1996, and introduced trial-bred vannamei white shrimp penaeus vannamei, which was changed to Litopenaeus vannamei in 1997. Many businesses in the mainland have gradually promoted the breeding of seedlings and prawn farms are paying close attention to the dynamics of white shrimp breeding and breeding. The introduction of species shrimp has a good reproduction response. This shrimp has a higher survival rate, feed-saving and a short breeding period. The white shrimp can be marketed as live shrimp. Yes, white shrimp can be sold at high prices. In China, Taiwanese businessmen introduced Fujian to start breeding in 1999. Analyzing the cost and benefit of white shrimp farming in Taiwan, the most important direct costs are feed, labor (mainly wages), water and electricity, and seedling fees. In 2020, they will be 30.0%, 25.1%, 14.1% and 7.9% respectively. The cost structure of each year varies with the changes in seedling and feed prices, and the proportion of feed and water and electricity costs increases year by year as the breeding density increases.
2. Taiwan white prawns were introduced and cultivated by Ecuador, grass prawns were imported from Southeast Asia, and tiger prawns were caught in coastal waters. China; White prawns were introduced from Taiwan to cultivate Taisho prawns, harvested naturally (70%), cultivated artificially (30%), and grass prawns are imported from Southeast Asia. Breeding methods: Taiwan is dominated by intensive aquaculture, but polyculture has also been changed because of long-term virus problems. In order to reduce the pollution and disease at the bottom of the pond, more segmented aquaculture is adopted. In recent years, polyculture of milkfish, shrimp, shellfish and mullet has been developed. Taiwan's processing equipment and technology are quite modern, but in recent years, due to the impact of environmental degradation, some have invested in Southeast Asia and the mainland, and the supply of raw materials is insufficient, and some have developed frozen prepared foods. Export price: US$15.01/kg in Taiwan (based on the average price of the frozen shrimp retail market in Japan from 2019 to 2020). China’s export price is US$14.86/kg.
3. With the rapid increase in global shrimp farming in Ecuador, South America, global production has stabilized at around 2 million tons by the 1990s, and is still growing at a rapid rate of 25%. Sea shrimp is the main choice for shrimp farming, mainly including three species: Asian grass shrimp P. monodon (accounting for 75%); Japanese shrimp P.chinensis and vannamei P. vannamei. Subsequently, the farming production of vannamei shrimp increased year by year. In 2021, it has become the world's largest shrimp farming product, accounting for more than 80%. From native to South America to large-scale farming in Asian and American countries today, Penaeus vannamei has become the world's largest species of shrimp farming due to its tolerance and great consumption demand. Shrimp species: white shrimp, shrimp pond area: 1.0 hectares, stocking density: 50 fish/m², breeding days: 120 days, final size: 15 grams, total harvest: 7 metric tons (ha), survival rate: 85 %, feed conversion factor: 1.35:1, use of probiotics: 1200 kg, cost of using probiotics: US$1,500, unit production cost: US$2.1/kg, total profit: US$13,000 (US$13,000/ha).
4. The shrimp farming industry scores of major Southeast Asian farming countries are based on weights. The farming environment will take into account relevant government policies, aquaculture geographic environment, development of surrounding facilities, development potential and other factors. Among them, shrimp seed supply (10%), feed supply (10%), management team and professional capabilities (20%), natural geographic environment (10%), and surrounding infrastructure (processing plants, etc.) (Accounting for 15%), government policies (quarantine, rewards and punishments, etc.) (accounting for 5%), competitive advantage (accounting for 10%), Southeast Asia sales channels (accounting for 10%), etc. 5 points are set according to the weighted points, Indonesia (total score of 3.55), Thailand (total score of 4.45), Vietnam (total score of 4.50), Philippines (total score of 4.00), Malaysia (total score of 3.60), Brunei (total score of 3.20), Cambodia (total score 3.10), Myanmar (total score 2.60), China (total score 3.40). Sort by points Indonesia (rank 5), Thailand (rank 2), Vietnam (rank 1), Philippines (rank 3), Malaysia (rank 4), Brunei (rank 8), Cambodia (rank 9), Myanmar (rank 10) ), China (ranked 6). According to the investment zone, Vietnam is the first choice, followed by Thailand and the Philippines.
5. Vietnam is the first choice. This study compares the cost of three main shrimp farming areas in Vietnam. The cost of farming is analyzed in Binju City, Nha Trang City, Vietnam, and Jinzhen City, Vietnam. The area of shrimp ponds for shrimp farming is 0.33 hectares. Stocking density (tails/m2): 122 tails/m2 in Binju City, Vietnam, 167 tails/m2 in Nha Trang City, Vietnam, 167 tails/m2 in Jinzhen City, Vietnam, and breeding days: 130 days in Binju City, Vietnam, and Nha Trang City, Vietnam 106 days, 120 days in Jinzhen City, Vietnam, final body size: 13.7 grams, total harvest (kg): 23,700 kg in Binju City, Vietnam, 5,000 kg in Nha Trang City, Vietnam, 21,000 kg Jinzhen City, Vietnam, live in Binju City, Vietnam Rates of 99.5%, Viet Nam’s live survival rate of 84.7%, Vietnam’s Jinzhen city’s live survival rate of 90.6%, Vietnam’s Benju City feed conversion factor: 1.26:1, Vietnam’s Jade city feed conversion factor: 1.27:1, Vietnam’s gold The feed conversion factor in Zhenshi: 1.12:1, the amount of probiotics used: 120 kg, the production cost per kilogram in Binju City, Vietnam is 130 yuan: the production cost per kilogram in Nha Trang City, Vietnam is 106 yuan per kilogram: the production cost per kilogram in Jinzhen City, Vietnam is 120 kg yuan. The return on investment in Bencho, Vietnam is 83.4%: the return on investment in Nha Trang, Vietnam is 73.4%: the return on investment in Jinzhen City, Vietnam is 83.7%: the return of shrimp seedlings in Ben Tre, Vietnam (4.54 yuan): the return on investment in Nha Trang, Vietnam Shrimp income (2.88 yuan): The income per shrimp larvae (4.81 yuan) in Jinzhen City, Vietnam. The breeding process of vannamei shrimp in 2020 varies greatly depending on the region. Farmers should adjust the environmental factors at any time and adjust the operation mode in a timely manner. If the pure marine culture of vannamei shrimp is used, the harvest in Vietnam can be divided into two months to 50/ For kilograms, 30 tails/kg for three months and 20 tails/kg for four months. The larger the number, the better the price, but the relative risk is greater.
6. The international market price of white shrimp in Southeast Asia in 2020. At present, the price of shrimp in Taiwan is still the most expensive among Southeast Asian countries. This is mainly due to the low breeding rate in recent years. Coupled with strong domestic demand, the average price per kilogram in Taiwan is 8.23$US dollars. Secondly, the average price per kilogram in China is 7.73US dollars, the average price per kilogram in Vietnam is US$5.24, the average price per kilogram in Thailand is US$4.69, the average price per kilogram in Malaysia is US$4.81, the average price per kilogram in Indonesia is US$4.12, and the average price per kilogram in the Philippines is US$4.56. The cheapest should be India and Central America Ecuador. The average price per kilogram in India is 3.62 US dollars, and the average price per kilogram in Ecuador is 3.65 US dollars.
7. The factors affecting the success of shrimp farming in Southeast Asia are quite complex. The overall environment to be assessed includes source of shrimp species, natural environment, natural shrimp species, political situation and larvae, legal systems, government foreign investment policies, infrastructure, and land use. ,Labor supply, labor efficiency, shrimp culture technology, surrounding industries, water pollution and diseases, breeding density, feed supply, processing technology, corporate monopoly, environmental protection requirements, currency stability, foreign exchange control, administrative efficiency, public security, financing conditions, etc. , 5 points for each individual item, 115 points for the total points. Indonesia total points (79 points), Thailand total points (98 points), Philippines total points (82 points), Vietnam total points (108 points), Malaysia total points (97 points), Myanmar total points (70 points), Brunei Total points (82 points), India total points (74 points), Cambodia total points (75 points), China total points (93 points). 

目錄
誌 謝 - 2 -
ABSTRACT - 6 -
第一章 緒論 - 10 -
第一節 研究背景與動機 - 12 -
第二節 研究目的 - 13 -
第三節 研究流程 - 14 -
第四節 問卷樣本 - 15 -
第二章 世界與東南亞蝦養殖現況 - 17 -
第一節 世界水產消費趨勢 - 19 -
第二節 世界水產養殖現況 - 22 -
第三節 世界蝦產業趨勢 - 24 -
第四節 東協及東南亞國家水產養殖現況 - 25 -
一、越南蝦類養殖 - 28 -
二、印尼蝦類養殖 - 32 -
三、緬甸蝦類養殖 - 34 -
四、馬來西亞蝦類養殖 - 35 -
五、泰國蝦類養殖 - 36 -
六、菲律賓蝦類養殖 - 38 -
七、印度水產養殖 - 41 -
八、柬埔寨 - 43 -
九、汶萊水產養殖 - 45 -
十一、寮國水產養殖 - 46 -
十二、新加坡蝦類養殖 - 47 -
第三章 文獻探討 - 51 -
第一節 區位選擇理論 - 51 -
第二節 模糊AHP方法文獻探討及應用 - 54 -
第四章 主要東南亞各國環境之分析 - 60 -
第一節 現況分析 - 60 -
第二節 各國投資環境評估 - 66 -
第三節 各國投資評估構面 - 69 -
一、評估構面建立 - 69 -
二、評估配分及計算方式建立 - 70 -
三、養殖蝦產業評估計算 - 72 -
第五章 東南亞主要養蝦成本分析 - 73 -
第一節 養殖競爭力 - 74 -
第二節 東南亞競爭力 - 76 -
第三節 東南亞養殖環境競爭力 - 78 -
第四節 東南亞養殖生產成本分析 - 78 -
第六章 結論與建議 - 100 -
第一節 結論 - 100 -
第二節 建議 - 103 -
參考文獻 - 105 -
中文 - 105 -
英文 - 106 -


參考文獻
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二、英文
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