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研究生:吳佳欣
研究生(外文):WU, CHIA-HSIN
論文名稱:樹木死亡風險建模與物種共存分析:以福山森林動態樣區為例
論文名稱(外文):Modeling tree death risk and analyzing species co-occurrence: a case study of the Fushan forest dynamics plot
指導教授:張雅梅張雅梅引用關係
指導教授(外文):CHANG, YA-MEI
口試委員:沈仲維、潘宏裕
口試委員(外文):SHEN, CHUNG-WEI、PAN, HUNG-YU
口試日期:2025-06-17
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:數學系統計科學研究所
學門:數學及統計學門
學類:統計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2025
畢業學年度:113
語文別:英文
論文頁數:42
中文關鍵詞:空間點過程、卜瓦松點過程、相對風險、樹木死亡風險模型、核估計、頻寬選擇、物種共存分析
外文關鍵詞:spatial point process、Poisson point process、relative risk、tree death risk model、kernel estimation、bandwidth selection、species co-occurrence analysis
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本研究基於空間點過程分析架構,建立樹木死亡風險模型,並進行物種共存分析,以探討物種間的交互作用,分析資料來自福山森林動態樣區(Fushan Forest Dynamics Plot, FFDP)。研究發現,不同的頻寬選擇方法會產生不同的風險分布輪廓,導致高風險區域的位置亦有所差異。對於不同物種而言,風險函數中的顯著共變量並不相同,部分物種的死亡風險受高度或與最近河流的距離等環境因子的影響,而其他物種則可能不受這些變數影響。共存分析結果顯示,多數物種對之間存在顯著的空間相關性。
In this study, we build the tree death risk model using spatial point process techniques and additionally perform species co-occurrence analyses to investigate spatial associations among species, providing insights into species interactions and potential coexistence. The analysis is based on data from the Fushan Forest Dynamics Plot (FFDP), located west of the Fushan Experimental Forest in northern Taiwan. Results indicate that different bandwidth selection methods produce distinct risk contours, and the regions of significantly high risk also vary. For different species, the significant covariates of the risk functions vary. Tree deaths in some species are influenced by factors such as elevation or distance to the nearest river, while others may not be affected by these variables. Co-occurrence analyses reveal that most species pairs exhibit significant spatial associations.
1 Introduction
2 Study area and materials
3 Methods
3.1 Kernel estimation of tree death risk
3.2 Bandwidth selection
3.3 Identification of high death risk areas
3.4 Maximum likelihood estimation of Poisson point process model
3.5 Partial residual diagnostics
3.6 Species co-occurrence analysis
4 Result
5 Discussion
Appendix
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